Iraq adamant it won’t be dragged into US-Iran proxy war

Although the latest standoff between the US and Iran is unlikely to result in direct conflict any time soon, such heightened tensions could have serious ramifications elsewhere in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq – a nation tired of being treated as a proxy battlefield.

On May 15, the US State Department ordered the evacuation of all non-emergency staff from its US embassy in Baghdad and consulate in Erbil, citing an unspecified Iranian threat.

Then, on the night of May 19, a rocket struck near the US embassy compound in Baghdad, adding to fears of an escalation between the US and Iran.

Iraqi officials of various different political stripes have uniformly opposed the prospect of war, arguing it will likely drag their country into yet another destabilizing proxy conflict.

Barham Salih, Iraq’s president, reiterated this view in a May 20 interview.

“Iraq has been living through hell for the last four decades,” he said. “Enough of wars, enough of conflict. And certainly Iraqis do not want to see this country yet again turn into a zone of proxy conflict.”

“These [US-Iran] tensions are extremely disconcerting in Iraq and in the neighbourhood,” he added.

Muqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand Shiite cleric who controls the biggest bloc in the Iraqi parliament, even warned a US-Iran war “would mark the end of Iraq”.

Any party that supports conflict between Washington and Tehran “would be an enemy of the Iraqi people”, Sadr said, as it would once again make the country “a scene for conflict”.

Sadr has consistently rejected all foreign forces and their proxies operating in Iraq, be they American, Iranian, or Turkish.

On May 24, Sadr’s followers held a gigantic anti-war protest in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, railing against the prospect of Iraq becoming a war zone in a wider US-Iran conflict.

Sadr is not the only prominent Iraqi figure foretelling doom. Hadi al-Amiri, the Shiite paramilitia leader whose list came second in Iraq’s 2018 parliamentary election, also issued a statement firmly opposing war.

“If war breaks out... it will burn everyone,” he said, urging Iraqis to unite “to keep Iraq and the region away from war.”

Amiri, whose Badr Organization has long served Tehran’s bidding, was echoed by Qais al-Khazali, the leader of another Iran-backed group Asaib Ahl al-Haq, who tweeted: “We caution against operations that are intended to provide pretexts for war.”

“War is not in the interest of the Islamic Republic of Iran or the United States of America.”

Iraq asserting its sovereignty?

Iraq has just emerged from years of war with the Islamic State group (ISIS), which left several Iraqi cities in ruins. Few Iraqis have any appetite for further conflict and staunchly oppose any outside power using their country to fight a proxy war.

Even before this latest round of US-Iran tensions, Iraqi officials said Iraq wants no part in regional rivalries.

In April, Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Bahrain of meddling in its affairs.

It came as part of a wider spat in which Sadr called for an end to the wars in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain and for Iran-backed Iraqi militias to withdraw from Syria to avoid embroiling Iraq in another conflict.

His mention of Bahrain, where the majority Shiite population has long been repressed by the ruling Sunni monarchy, led Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid Bin Ahmad al-Khalifa to brand Sadr “stupid” and liken him to a “dog”. He asked why Sadr didn’t direct his words at the Iranian regime “which controls his country”.

Iraq’s Foreign Minister quickly joined the fray, calling the Bahraini FM’s comments “totally unacceptable in diplomatic norms, and also abusive to Iraq and its sovereignty and independence, especially when the Bahraini minister speaks of Iraq being under the control of neighbour Iran.”

“Today Iraq is recovering and getting stronger, and it will not accept any interference in its affairs, and it won’t accept abuse to national and religious symbols,” the statement added.

Around the same time the ministry also criticized the US embassy in Baghdad for a Facebook post which called Iran’s regime and its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “corrupt”.

Targeting any of the “religious or political symbols” of Iraq’s neighbours “runs counter to the principles of the Iraqi constitution”, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said, demanding the embassy remove the post.

There are currently at least 5,000 US troops in Iraq, many of them stationed in the Al-Asad airbase in the country’s western Anbar province. Iran meanwhile maintains several Shiite militia proxies loyal to its interests in Iraq.

According to the Guardian, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) extraterritorial Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, told Iran-backed militias in Iraq to “prepare for proxy war.”

Iran maintains several proxy militias across the Middle East, totaling some 200,000 fighters according to estimates.

Iran wants to give the impression that Iraq is its staunch ally in the region. Akram al-Kaabi, secretary-general of the Harakat al-Nujaba, was quoted in the Tehran Times saying Iraq will remain part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” against the US and Israel.

“Our enemies want Iraq to be an apathetic society and not react to what is happening in our region,” he claimed. “This goes against our beliefs.”

Kaabi’s views may be in the minority.

US affronts

US President Donald Trump has also drawn the ire of Iraqis in recent months.

When Trump paid an unannounced visit to US troops stationed at Al-Asad last December, without meeting Iraqi officials, he was accused of violating the country’s sovereignty.

Trump poured further fuel on the fire when he declared the US “spent a fortune on building this incredible base” and should therefore “keep it”.

“And one of the reasons I want to keep it is because I want to be looking a little bit at Iran because Iran is a real problem,” he added.

Iraqi President Salih promptly denounced Trump’s remark, pointing out that US troops are only in Iraq at Baghdad’s invitation to help combat terrorism and any use of those forces for other purposes is “unacceptable”.

“Don’t overburden Iraq with your own issues,” he said. “The US is a major power ... but do not pursue your own policy priorities, we live here.

“It is of fundamental interest for Iraq to have good relations with Iran,” he added.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most prominent Shiite cleric, also criticized Trump’s statement, insisting Iraq wants “good and balanced relations” with its neighbours “based on mutual interests and without intervention in internal affairs”.

Iraq “rejects being a launching pad for harming any other country,” he added.

Haider al-Abadi, Iraq’s former prime minister, echoed these sentiments when he tweeted “Iraqi sovereignty must be respected” and “should not be used as a spring board to attack its neighbours. We are not proxies in conflicts outside the interests of our nation.”

Michael Knights, a prominent Iraq analyst, warned similar affronts could push Baghdad to remove US forces from Iraq.

Turkey and the PKK

Iraq is also keen to avoid getting dragged into the war between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), playing out in part on its territory.

In March, after Iraqi troops in the Yezidi-majority Sinjar region briefly clashed with the Sinjar Protection Units (YBS), a Yezidi militia established by the PKK, Iraqi PM Adil Abdul-Mahdi said Iraq will not become “an axis” in the Turkey-PKK conflict.

“We do not want to be part of the conflict,” he added.

The PKK has long had a presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. Since the ISIS war, it also expanded its foothold in Sinjar after rescuing thousands of Yezidis from genocide.

Although the PKK officially withdrew from Sinjar at Baghdad’s behest in early 2018, the YBS is very likely safeguarding its interests there.

Turkey on several occasions has threatened to take military action in Sinjar against the PKK/YBS. Its air force has frequently bombed the region.

In a recent visit to Turkey, where he held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Abdul-Mahdi reiterated his “rejection” of Iraq’s soil being used as a launch pad for attacks on Turkey.

He told an earlier press conference “what neighbouring countries do on Iraqi soil" must be done “in consultation with Iraq”.

For all its protests to the contrary, there are no guarantees Iraq can avoid being dragged into another regional conflict. Enfeebled by years of war and crying out for foreign investment, it may not get a say in the matter.

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