ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Attacks by ISIS in Kirkuk province have more than doubled in the past year because "the Iraqi government has not addressed risk factors that contribute to instability," according to a brief released by the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
"ACLED data show that attacks in Kirkuk and Salah ad-Dine Provinces are at all-time highs through October 2018," read the report from the US-based think tank of Georgetown University released at the end of November.
In addition to the Iraqi government's failure to address instability, the report noted costly reconstruction, corruption, economic stagnation and "ungoverned spaces in disputed regions across the country."
The latter factor is primarily due to security gaps between Iraqi forces and the Kurdistan Regional Government's security forces, the Peshmerga.
"Much like the insurgent tactics of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), and the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) — the Islamic State’s predecessors — Islamic State militants are seizing on local grievances, taking advantage of ungoverned space by operating from cell structures to conduct hit and run attacks, kidnappings for ransom, targeted assassinations, and bombings using improvised explosive devices, read the report.
The areas are constitutionally disputed with both Baghdad and Erbil laying claim.
"While Islamic State territorial control has been reduced to minor pockets of rural Iraq, the group was still carrying out an average of 75 attacks per month in 2018, including a doubling of attacks year over year in Kirkuk province," the report added.
The Peshmerga withdrew from all of the disputed areas October 2017 after a federal takeover. The move ordered by then Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi included the Iraqi Army supported by Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitias and militias.
Over the last year, Baghdad has held the security portfolio over the disputed areas. Many of the areas were under the control of the Peshmerga through the ISIS conflict.
Local residents, officials, media, and security authorities have repeatedly reported the attacks to Rudaw.
A screenshot of a CSIS graphic showing ISIS attacks in Iraq in 2016 (red), 2017 (purple), and 2018 (green).
Abadi declared ISIS defeated in Iraq on December 9, 2017.
"However, the Islamic State is far from obliterated. A recent report by the CSIS Transitional Threats Project estimates that the group may still possess 20,000 to 30,000 militants in Iraq and Syria, with an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 in Iraq," stated the CSIS report.
It acknowledged ISIS has lost 99 percent of its territory, but a strategy shift — predicted by Kurdish officials before Abadi's declaration — means ISIS has claimed 75 attacks per month in Iraq, which is more than the average for 2016 (60.5 attacks) but less than 2017 (89.2 attacks), according to CSIS.
Through October 2018, ISIS targeted 394 government and state security services, while just 363 in 2017, and 115 for all of 2016.
Civilians have been targeted less by the group — 272 in 2018, 635 in 2017, and 473 in 2016.
"The lack of an official military presence throughout ungoverned space and disputed territories in Kirkuk and Salah ad-Dine provinces have enabled Islamic State militants to operate freely," stated CSIS.
"This is due in part to the security vacuum caused by the forced withdrawal of Kurdish Peshmerga from these areas following the Kurdish referendum."
The Kurdistan Region continues to host more than 1.2 million Iraqis displaced during the ISIS conflict — many from the disputed areas. After the Kirkuk events, some 200,000 people from the disputed areas sought shelter in the Kurdistan Region. The Kurdistan Regional Government says more than 148,000 persons still haven’t been able to return because of political, social, or security reasons.
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