After many months of fruitless efforts, last week Turkey finally captured the northern Syrian town of al-Bab from the “Islamic State” (ISIS). ISIS militants apparently decided not to continue trying to hold al-Bab, and Turkey and its proxy Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters reportedly left a corridor for them to retreat southeast of the city. This resembles how Turkey captured Jarablus in August 2016. This week, Turkish, FSA and ISIS fighters reportedly began simultaneous offensives against villages just south of Manbij. Manbij (some 45 kilometers northeast of al-Bab) was liberated from ISIS control last August, after very fierce fighting, by Democratic Union Party (PYD)-affiliated Kurdish forces (the People’s Protection Forces, or HPG/HPJ) and the multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that they lead. If these reports are accurate, we may be witnessing ISIS’ latest stratagem in Syria. With PYD-SDF forces closing in on their capital of Raqqa, ISIS leaders need to prioritize. The Syrian Kurds and their allies, along with American air support, remain the biggest threat to ISIS in Syria. Although Ankara has sometimes boasted about taking Raqqa itself (with the help of its FSA militias), most observers view this as talk lacking substance – an unconvincing effort to woo Washington away from the Syrian Kurds. By abandoning al-Bab, ISIS seeks to stoke fighting between Turkey and the PYD-SDF. Turkey’s main goal in entering the Syrian morass always centered on preventing the Kurds from linking their cantons of Kobane and Jazira with Afrin to the west. The capture of al-Bab goes a long way towards accomplishing this goal. And now that al-Bab is in Turkish hands, Ankara can proceed with an assault on SDF-held Manbij – an operation it appears to have launched this week. Since it will have to fight the Kurds one way or another, ISIS also launched its own operation against Manbij at the same time. Alternately, it also seems possible that Ankara and ISIS may have, explicitly or implicitly, struck a deal to go after the Kurds together. The PYD-SDF is, after all, both actors’ main enemy in Syria. Either way, the ISIS stratagem of bringing the Turks and Syrian Kurds into more open conflict appears brilliant. The PYD-SDF offensive on Raqqa cannot continue while Turkey assaults Manbij (or even possibly Afrin in the near future). Unlike the Kurds, Turkey is also extremely unlikely to make any significant thrust against Raqqa. So for the price of losing al-Bab, ISIS may just succeed in extending its life in Syria a lot longer. The Trump administration in Washington needs to find a way to counter this ISIS maneuver, lest the whole American strategy against ISIS comes to a grinding halt. Just four days ago US Central Command reaffirmed its support for the SDF fighters of Manbij, and American officials have continued to announce their cooperation with the PYD as well. Turkey, it seems, is trying to force them to choose between PYD-SDF and Ankara. Unless the Americans can find a way to dissuade Turkey from pushing forwards with such brinksmanship, things are likely to get very ugly for US allies in Syria. They will be actively fighting each other instead of ISIS – which would suit ISIS perfectly but make a mockery of President Trump’s promises to speed up the “utter destruction” of the Islamic State terrorists. This may prove the first major crisis and test for the new Trump administration. It remains in most people’s interest that the new president rise to the occasion to deal with the problem. David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since 2010. He is the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and author of The Kurdish Nationalist Movement (2006, Cambridge University Press) and co-editor (with Mehmet Gurses) of Conflict, Democratization and the Kurds in the Middle East (2014, Palgrave Macmillan). The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
Kurdistan12-08-2026German MP reiterates support for Kurdistan Region amid Iranian strikesRUDAW English
Kurdistan12-08-2026President Barzani hails Turkey's PKK integration law as 'turning point' for peaceRUDAW English
