Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi had received a phone call from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicating that their decision was to close the US embassy in Baghdad in the case the Iraqi government did not respond to America’s demands for a stop to the almost daily missile attacks and adequate security for the US diplomatic mission in Baghdad’s Green Zone , airport.
In addition, the US administration’s determination to close the embassy worried observers and politicians alike, because it was quick and surprising, but the US administration gave a series of warnings and signals before making a final decision about its presence in Iraq, but the Iraqis did not pay attention to these warnings. The US administration proceeded to implement defensive and offensive measures, the first of which was the closure of the consulate in Basra in September 2018, followed by the Secretary of State's decision to reduce the number of employees working in Iraq in May 2019, as well as gradually withdrawing from the advanced bases in 2019 and 2020, the last of which was the evacuation of the military base in Taji.
While the offensive measures was the air strike against Kataib Hezbollah on 29th December 2019 in al-Qaim, near the Syrian border, followed by the assassination of Qasim Sulaimani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, known in Arabic as Hashd al-Shaabi) Chief Deputy Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on 3rd of January 2020.
Amid these successive developments, the fundamental question that revolves in the minds of the Americans is, how long can this situation be continued? They exerted pressure on the Iraqi government to take appropriate measures to reduce the threats, but the Iraqi government has not yet been able to stop them. Rather the opposite happened, as the number and intensity of attacks has increased dramatically in recent times. Some informed sources confirm that the Americans obtained intelligence information indicating that an imminent attack on the embassy in the coming weeks, similar to what happened in December 2019, so the decision of US President Donald Trump came and Secretary of State conveyed it to the Prime Minister.
Road Map to Withdrawal
Information received from informed sources confirms that the "closure process" has already begun with drawing a roadmap and preparing an "action plan". This plan needs decisions and answers to a number of questions, including whether the closure is temporary or permanent? Will all content be moved or kept behind closed doors? Will the embassy facilities be handed over to the Iraqi side or to one of the existing foreign missions? Will the evacuation be by land or by air? Other questions that determine the type and mechanism of the form of withdrawal will be presented to the officials to take the appropriate decision regarding it, who will then proceed with the evacuation process, which takes between 60 and 90 days.
The same sources indicate that it is too early to determine whether they are keeping the Erbil consulate open. The Americans have indicated to Kurdish leaders that they intend to keep the Consulate in Erbil open, however, that depends on diplomatic relations remaining open between Iraq and the US, and Baghdad agreeing to that. In other words, the plan for withdrawal is a “work in progress” and decisions will be made at later dates depending on facts on the ground.
Iraqi leaders still believe that the American decision is not more than “political tactics” or “pressure points” on the Iraqi government, or they “are not serious” in their decision to close the embassy because “Iraq has a strategic location” and “is of great importance to the American policy in the region”. The Political leaders and the Shia leaders in particular are in denial of the seriousness of the American warnings. They don't realise the resolve of the US administration to go ahead with taking offensive and defensive measures if the attacks are continued without deterrence by the government, and the closure of the embassy is one of these defensive measures.
Perhaps the reaction to the news of embassy closure by important players inside and outside the US has led Iraqi leaders to think this way. This includes the position of the European countries or the letter from two prominent US senators where they say the closure of the embassy is hurtful for Iraq-US relations. However, some US officials admit that the withdrawal of the US from Iraq would be a “massive loss”, but they believe it is a lot less significant than staying and waiting for a repeat of events in Benghazi in 2012 or Tehran in 1979.
The Concern of Collapse
Observers agree that the Iraq before the closure of the US Embassy is different from the one after, and the political process will endure a stifling crisis. We wrote on the effects of a US withdrawal, but suffice to say that the government will be under tremendous pressure internally and externally in order to protect the diplomatic missions and control the weapons that are directed at the Green Zone. Diplomats from 28 countries met with the PM on September 30th and issued a statement expressing their “deep concern at the rise in the number and sophistication of attacks against diplomatic premises in Iraq”.
There are many predictions on how the political future would be in general. There are those who believe that the US will try to enhance its relations with the Sunni and Kurdish political players and make a political and security deal to protect their areas, while the center and south of Iraq see a wave of internal fighting either between the armed groups themselves or between them and state security, while the protest movement carries on. Their predictions are based on two reasons: first the wide spread of arms in the hands of many groups, some of them are neither in state security or part of PMF; and the second is the expected economic collapse as the Iraqi government must spend $7 billion USD monthly while its income is barely half of that. The economy is expected to hit an unprecedented recession, and the government will be forced to devalue the Dinar thus increasing inflation, causing hikes in prices, which in turn will worsen the living situation in the country and increases poverty rates. Observers believe that the combination of loose weapons and economic collapse will create chaos and a race for takeover of resources and territorial expansion of the powerful armed groups will lead to an armed conflict.
Government measures
For his part, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein announced in a press conference on September 30 that the government "has taken measures to protect diplomatic missions" without giving details. Observers believe that changing the commander of the special division tasked with protecting the Green Zone is a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, the spokesman for the Prime Minister, Ahmed Mulla Talal, stated that "the security forces have arrested a number of the rocket launchers ... and 19 security officers and officials have been arrested where the rockets were fired in the areas under their responsibility” following the rockets that were aimed at the Baghdad airport and resulted in the killing of five, among them women and children.
While the government expanded its contacts with neighbouring and friendly countries to mediate with the Americans in order to reverse their decision to leave, the pace of mediation will increase in the near future. It seems that these attempts may bear some kind of fruit, as the tone of the American threats to close the embassy are somewhat softer, although they remain to insist on decisive action by the Iraqis.
There is no doubt that the political, economic and security situation is heading towards a dangerous decline, and its danger increases day after day due to the absence of immediate governmental measures to address the existing crises. In addition, the current diplomatic crisis will complicate the scene more than before. Observers do not rule out the collapse of the current political process, which may be followed by bloody chaos in central and southern Iraq. Therefore, the elders of the state, especially the Shiite leadership, must work together to rectify the matter and find quick solutions to prevent the collapse. Otherwise they will be the first to pay the price for any potential collapse. The Iraqi government is required to find adequate and efficient ways of dealing with what is happening, with or without the presence of the Americans.
