Is the US rethinking its strategy on the Kurdish dossier in Syria?

Karwan Faidhi Dri

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The United States did not intervene to protect the Kurds during last week’s full-scale military operation by the Syrian Arab Army and its affiliated armed groups in northern Aleppo’s Kurdish-majority neighborhoods. This inaction echoes previous instances when Washington failed to support the side often described as its most trusted regional partner at a time of vulnerability.

The American inaction has prompted many in the region - including experts, observers, and ordinary citizens, particularly from the Kurdish community - to question the reasons behind Washington’s stance this time and whether Washington has found new allies in Damascus.

Blind-sided

On January 6, thousands of Syrian army troops and allied jihadists launched a wide-scale attack on the predominantly Kurdish Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsood neighborhoods, to take control of northern Aleppo areas that had been secured for nearly 15 years by the Kurdish Internal Security Forces (Asayish).

The Asayish are an affiliate of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which serve as the de facto army of northeast Syria (Rojava). The SDF had been the main on-the-ground partner of the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State (ISIS) until Damascus joined the military alliance, playing a central role in the group’s territorial defeat in Syria in 2019.

Despite their heavy weaponry, Syrian battalions and affiliated militants took several days to overcome a few hundred Asayish fighters armed with light and medium weapons. Shortages of food, water, ammunition, and electricity caused by the siege were key factors that left the Kurds with no choice but to agree to a ceasefire.

The deadly violence claimed the lives of at least 82 people - including 43 civilians - according to a Sunday report by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). The fighting also displaced around 150,000 people, the Erbil-based Barzani Charity Foundation (BCF) told Rudaw a day earlier.

Amid the violence, the US and France pushed to end the fighting, persuading both sides to accept a brief ceasefire. A long-term deal was later announced by SDF chief Mazloum Abdi on Sunday, confirming that an internationally mediated ceasefire had been reached to halt the fighting in Aleppo’s Kurdish neighborhoods, which have since come under the control of Syrian state and allied forces.

Expanding agenda

The seeming American and international silence over Damascus’ surprise attack - despite reports of grave human rights violations, widespread destruction, loss of life, and mass displacement - appears to have emboldened the Syrian interim government. On Tuesday, the Syrian army’s Operations Command declared additional Kurdish-held areas - this time Deir Hafer, Maskanah, and surrounding areas in eastern Aleppo - as “closed military zones.”

The SDF controls most territory east of the Euphrates River - where hundreds of US troops are deployed as part of the US-led coalition against ISIS - and holds smaller areas in the west.

Deir Hafer in part stands out as a strategic district under SDF control. Long a flashpoint, the area has seen increased pressure from Damascus-aligned factions seeking to seize it in recent months as control of Deir Hafer would open a key logistical corridor between Aleppo and Raqqa and enable greater military pressure on the SDF along the Euphrates River.

The head of the SDF-affiliated Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) office in Damascus told Rudaw that US officials had privately made it clear they would not intervene to protect Kurdish forces in areas the Syrian Arab Army had designated as “closed military zones.”

“If instability occurs east of the Euphrates River, we can intervene, but if it occurs in other areas, we will not intervene,” Abdul Wahab Khalil cited Americans as telling them.

Myles Caggins, former spokesperson for the global coalition, told Rudaw English he believes Washington will continue engaging with all Syrian forces in the fight against ISIS.

“I expect the US will occupy some bases in the western part of Syria to begin advising the [Syrian Transitional Government’s] STG’s anti-terrorism forces. Most importantly, as the US plays an essential role in the negotiations to merge the SDF under the umbrella of the STG ministry of defense, the US will continue to fund detention operations at ISIS camps,” he said.

The retired US Army colonel further added that Washington’s focus on countering ISIS means it is unlikely to intervene militarily in clashes between the SDF and the Syrian army, as was the case during the latest clashes in Aleppo.

US greenlight debate

When asked by Rudaw’s Diyar Kurda about the Aleppo clashes, US President Donald Trump said on Friday, “I want to see peace [in Syria].”

He added, “The Kurds and the Syrian government - we get along with both, as you know very well. They have been natural enemies over the years, but we get along with both.”

Nonetheless, the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) - an umbrella organization of Kurdish parties, including the ruling party in northeast Syria (Rojava) - said in a Tuesday statement that the US and other major powers may have green-lit the Syrian army’s attack on Aleppo’s Kurdish neighborhoods.

Giran Ozcan, a prominent Kurdish analyst and founding executive director of the US-based Kurdish Peace Institute, told Rudaw English that the events in Aleppo have “dealt a severe blow to Syria’s national viability and weakened the US’s capacity to fight ISIS and jihadism in general.”

He added that “rather than a green light, it was a very shortsighted amber,” warning that Washington’s inaction in the Aleppo clashes “has undoubtedly emboldened the jihadists embedded in the new security establishment being formed in Damascus.”

On March 10, SDF’s Abdi and Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a landmark agreement to integrate all civil and military institutions in Rojava under the Syrian state.

Despite several rounds of talks - the most recent occurring less than 48 hours before the Syrian military operation in northern Aleppo - the deal remains largely unimplemented, with both sides trading blame for the stalemate.

Ozcan believes that “as a result of developments over the past 10 days, the trust needed to implement the March 10 Agreement has been significantly eroded.” He added, “Minorities in Syria have gained yet another reason to be suspicious of Damascus.”

Following the massacre of minority Alawites and Druze by state forces and their allied militias last year, the SDF recognized the need for weaponry to protect Kurdish communities. During the Aleppo clashes, footage of jihadists committing war crimes were widely overlooked by western media, including a video of a bearded man throwing a Kurdish female fighter off a building after executing her.

Deepening rifts

Since assuming leadership in Damascus, the Sharaa-led interim government has actively sought to disarm the Alawite community in western Syria but has been unable to do so in the Druze-majority Suwayda province, where the minority group enjoys significant support from Israel.

Since the ouster of longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad, the Kurds have demanded a decentralized governance and military model, while the Druze have called for autonomy. The interim government, however, has shown little willingness to move away from the Assad-era centralized system that dominated for decades.

Syria’s top regional ally, Turkey, has accused Rojava authorities of trying to fragment the country and serving Israel’s interests - an allegation rejected by Kurdish officials. Meanwhile, Washington appears uninterested in the semi-autonomous federal model sought by the Kurds and other minorities, who fear losing their rights under an Islamist-led government.

Ozcan, who is also a fellow for Kurdish affairs at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said, “Israel has made no promise to intervene on behalf of the Kurds in Syria.” He added, however, that “the institutionalization and consolidation of jihadism within Syria’s ruling establishment should be a constant concern for Israel,” and should accordingly shape its policies.

As Damascus appears to push for more SDF-held territory in northern Syria, it remains unclear how the Trump administration will balance its 16-year-old ally, the SDF, with its new global coalition partner, the interim Syrian government.

In the meantime, US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said late Tuesday that they are “closely monitoring developments in Aleppo” and urged all parties to avoid further escalation and return to the negotiating table.

However, it remains to be seen whether Washington will break its silence on the Syrian army's latest advances and ensure its two allies resolve their differences peacefully.