The debate over an independent Kurdish state is heated, with numerous arguments on its feasibility. But let us look at the internal and external political developments that shape the political process in Kurdistan: The external political developments and internal economic growth of the Kurdistan Region are significant and widely recognized. Nevertheless, there are still some gray areas that could be the source of grave concern for the autonomous region, if it desires to advance its status regionally and internationally.
Other than overdependence on Turkey, the external political developments of the Kurdistan Region are remarkable. As China takes the leap to open its Consulate General in Erbil by the end of 2014, it will become the fifth and final permanent United Nations Security Council member to have a diplomatic presence in the Kurdistan Region. This shows the outstanding political and strategic importance to the region.
The keen engagement of the international community with the Kurdistan Region is two-fold. The main factor behind the international community’s engagement with the Kurdistan Region is the vast economic potential that the region offers, as Kurdistan is currently home to some of the world's most sought after oil wells. The other reason that has made possible the engagement of the international community is the pursuance of an open-door policy by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in establishing international ties. The strategic importance of the Kurdistan Region to the international community is becoming more evident as the autonomous region is expected to become an energy competitor beyond the Middle East, attracting the world’s giant oil companies. Thus, it is not a secret that the engagement of powerful countries with the Kurdistan Region is wholly based on national interest, and the KRG’s reactionary foreign policy is not helping matters. The KRG should take advantage of the interests of the international community in the Kurdistan Region through pursuing a more proactive foreign policy that could broaden and solidify the relations of the autonomous region with these states.
The internal political developments of the Kurdistan Region are not as promising as the external. Since the establishment of the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Kurdistan Regional Parliament (KRP) in 1992, political instability has been the source of grave concern in the Kurdistan Region. Highlighting the internal political instability of the region does not require recalling distant history.
The recent negotiations over the formation of the KRG’s eighth cabinet are a prime example of the internal political volatility of the region. Seven months since the Kurdistan parliamentary elections of September 2013, and the government cabinet is yet to be formed. The predicament is not in the delay of the process per se, but rather in the rhetoric and reaction of the various political parties towards the formation of the government.
Internal political instability has greatly hindered the emergence of a genuine democracy in the Kurdistan Region. A prime example is the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan’s (PUK) position in negotiations in the new cabinet.
The PUK, one of the founders of the KRG and KRP, has refused to accept the new political reality of being relegated to third-place, since the outcome of the parliamentary elections. The PUK has been reluctant to adjust to its new downsized political position. Some PUK leaders have even gone so far as to threaten to use force if the party is not well-represented in the next KRG cabinet. PUK’s reactions towards the outcome of the September elections show that political stability in Kurdistan is at best fragile, and there are elements prone to cause instability whenever the interests of their respective parties are at stake.
Holding elections every four years does not bring about the democratic process. The Kurdish political parties and the Kurdish society must first encompass the principles and ethics of democracy. The internal political instability of the Kurdistan Region, if not contained, can greatly jeopardize the hard-fought achievements of the Kurdistan Region, and can return the autonomous region to the zero point.
Niyaz S. Barzani holds an MA in International Politics from the University of Texas
