On September 5, deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), also known as Hashd al-Shaabi, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, reportedly ordered the formation of an "Air Force Directorate" for the mostly Shiite militias that receive support from Tehran. However, hours after Iraqi media widely covered Muhandis’ purported order, the PMF’s official website published an article denying it sought an air force.
Muhandis is a powerful figure in the organization. His apparent decree follows a succession of airstrikes this summer targeting PMF facilities across Iraq, which were likely carried out by Israel.
It is unclear whether the report was fake, or if Muhandis did indeed order this, but was forced by the PMF to walk it back, according to one Iraq expert.
"It seems like the order was withdrawn or denied by the PMF," Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Rudaw English. “(It’s) unclear if all or some of this was fake news, or if Muhandis got a little ahead of himself and had to withdraw the idea."
If the order is indeed authentic, and Muhandis isn't simply posturing, it's unclear how exactly the PMF could establish an air force of its own outside of state control. It’s also unclear what kind of equipment the force would have and where it would acquire it from.
"My sense is that air defense is something the PMF might try to get involved in, at the very least to buy some air defenses for their own locations," said Knights. "That means simpler low-level air defenses against drones."
In recent months, Iran has expressed interest in helping Iraq build-up its air defenses. It's not known if Tehran seeks to provide PMF groups it backs specifically with their own air defense systems, though.
Last month, Muhandis claimed that the US brought four Israeli drones from Azerbaijan to Iraq to target PMF bases and members of the group's leadership. He also warned that the PMF would shoot down aircraft flying over their bases.
Joel Wing, the author of the Musings on Iraq blog, said that Muhandis' alleged air force order "was an aspirational claim."
"Right now, there is no way the Hashd could have an actual air force," Wing told Rudaw English. "Acquiring the equipment and, more importantly, training pilots would take a long time.”
It is more likely the PMF will acquire drones than a fleet of combat jets, according to Wing.
"A more realistic start would probably be with drones that can be used for both surveillance and offensive operations,” he said.
Wing said the statement attributed to Muhandis revealed the PMF leader’s quest to make the militias something like the top ideologically-driven force in Iran.
"Muhandis' desire to turn Hashd into a parallel armed force to the Iraqi military similar to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” he said.
The IRGC is part of the Iranian armed forces and considers itself the main defender of the 1979 revolution which brought the Islamic Republic into existence. The IRGC operates its own air, ground and naval forces separate from the regular conventional Iranian armed forces.
Muhandis has had close ties with the IRGC's extraterritorial Quds Force commanded by Major General Qasem Soleimani for decades. He also has Iranian citizenship.
Incidentally, the IRGC-air force essentially donated attack planes to Iraq in the summer of 2014 to help Baghdad combat the Islamic State (ISIS), which had just captured large swaths of territory in northern Iraq.
Ironically, those same planes were previously part of the Iraqi air force until they flew to Iran to evade destruction in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, where they were promptly confiscated by Tehran.
Iran could give the PMF lighter aerial equipment, if not full-on air force.
"More donations could come from the IRGC-AF (air force) stocks, perhaps of helicopters, drones or light aircraft," Knights said.
Such an outcome – wherein PMF units loyal to Iran continue to operate independently in Iraq and acquire increasingly more sophisticated military hardware – would fatally undermine Baghdad's efforts to completely integrate the paramilitaries into the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
However, other authorities in Iraq and the PMF quickly shot down Muhandis’ reported comments on the PMF acquiring an air force.
"The idea was immediately opposed by [Hashd chairman] Falah al-Fayyad and Prime Minister [Adil Abdul-] Mahdi," said Wing.
The peculiar order was also promptly denounced by influential Shiite cleric and Iran critic Muqtada al-Sadr who, without mentioning Muhandis, did not mince words when he tweeted a warning following the news of a possible PMF air force.
“That means a declaration of the end of the Iraqi government,” he said. “That means turning from a state governed by law to a state of chaos.”
Sadr has vocally advocated for the total integration of the various paramilitaries that make up the PMF into the ISF.
When Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi issued a decree in July for all PMF units to fully integrate into the Iraqi security forces, Sadr ordered his paramilitary, Saraya al-Salam, to do so, calling the decree "an important thing and a correct first step toward building a strong state."
If the powerful Iran-backed factions within the PMF can continue avoiding integration into the state security apparatus and successfully establish their own air force, then such efforts will face a serious challenge. According to Wing, Muhandis' decree is yet another demonstration of "the continued fragmentation of the Iraqi polity that has existed since 2003” when the US invaded the country, plunging it into civil conflict.
"The Iraqi state is still weak and divided which opens the opportunity for powerful politicians to carry out separate and often contradictory policies," he said. "Muhandis is just another example of that."
