In the early hours of Wednesday, January 8, Iran fired missiles near US troops at Ain Al-Asad airbase, in Iraq's western Anbar province, and near US personnel based in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region.
Wednesday's events were the peak of a recent escalation of US-Iran tensions, which began in late December when the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia killed a US civilian contractor in a rocket attack in Kirkuk. Washington retaliated with airstrikes two days later, killing 25 of the group's fighters.
Then, on January 3, a US drone strike killed both Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias.
While a direct war between the US and Iran is not likely, conflict will likely continue in Iraq. The Kurdistan Regional Government is wary of becoming entangled in this conflict, which could affect the region's stability and security.
Shortly after the Iranian missiles struck Erbil, Secretary General of the Ministry of Peshmerga Jabbar Yawar predicted that the Kurdistan Region would be affected by continued conflict in Iraq.
"With the Kurdistan Region being part of Iraq, we are sure to get hit by the fire – despite it being true that the Kurdistan Region is not involved with the existing rivalry, nor will it be involved," Yawar said.
Erbil has sought to remain neutral in the US-Iran proxy conflict. Recent suggestions that US troops could retain a presence in the Kurdistan Region if Baghdad expels them prompted the Kurdish leadership to reiterate its desire to remain neutral.
President of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Masoud Barzani succinctly summed up Kurdistan's position when he tweeted: "If the process of resolving the current issue in the Middle East region is in accordance to a path of reason and wisdom, we are certainly ready to cooperate."
"However," he added, "we cannot be involved in any proxy wars."
On Thursday, Barzani also received an American delegation and "discussed the recent developments and the significance of finding expeditious solutions."
In his former capacity as president of the Kurdistan Region, Barzani always strived to ensure his region did not become caught up in any proxy conflicts.
In 2007, the United States raided and ransacked the Iranian consulate in Erbil, claiming that the IRGC was using it to plot attacks against US troops in Iraq.
Barzani was furious, declaring that, "Such behaviour is not acceptable to us. Our regional integrity is important."
He responded to the American allegations of the IRGC using their consulate in Erbil for organizing attacks on US soldiers by stressing that "Erbil is not a place for such plans."
In a 2017 interview with the Saudi Okaz newspaper, Barzani was asked if he worried about Iran potentially attempting to subjugate Erbil under its control, as it had done to Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa through its powerful proxies.
Barzani began by clarifying that while Kurdistan doesn't "want to clash or enter a conflict with Iran" he would never allow the Kurdistan Region to "collapse" or fall under Tehran's control.
His statement was a clear reiteration of the defensive posture Kurdistan has maintained since first acquiring its autonomy almost 30 years ago.
Kurdistan certainly wants to maintain the US-led coalition troop presence on its soil and opposes the Iraqi parliament's recent resolution to have all US troops expelled from Iraq.
However, it only wants the US military presence in the country for its continued support in combating the Islamic State group, which still maintains an active presence and poses a significant threat in disputed territories between Erbil and Baghdad, such as Kirkuk and Makhmour.
It's highly unlikely that Erbil would support US troops using their soil for any other operations, such as targeting of Iran-backed paramilitaries in Iraq, unless it is directly subjected to hostilities and needs assistance defending itself.
Mohammed A. Salih, a doctoral student and graduate associate at Perry World House of the University of Pennsylvania's global affairs institute, spoke to Rudaw English about the possibility of Iran pressuring Kurdistan to expel US forces and how continued hostilities in Iraq could affect the autonomous region.
"It is difficult to speak with certainty about the outcome and direction of the present hostilities," Salih said.
"If there is going to be some form of serious military conflict, due to its geographical position, Kurdistan will be affected one way or another," he said. "That could be by being at the receiving end of Iranian missiles due to US military presence in Kurdistan or the economic consequences of further instability in the region."
"But even in the former case, the attacks will most likely be limited to land pockets where US forces are based and not the entire territory of the Kurdistan Region."
Salih believes that Tehran "will certainly pressure" Erbil to remove US troops. However, due to the clear and present danger of an ISIS resurgence, "there is little appetite on the part of the US or the Kurdistan Region for the US military to leave Iraq."
He also pointed out that "Iran does not have the capabilities to handle a resurgent ISIS."
Consequently, Kurdistan's security might be adversely affected if the US withdraws all its military forces from Iraq and Kurdistan.
"I believe in the short and medium run we will quite likely witness the continued presence of US in Iraq," Salih said. "Iran's faint response to the death of its most prominent military commander showed that no matter its rhetoric, in action Iran is far more cautious not to provoke the US having now firsthand tasted the dire consequences of US wrath."
He concluded by noting that Kurdistan "has successfully maintained neutrality realizing fully well that neither side is very reliable and that involvement in the hostilities will only harm it."
"It will maintain the current neutrality except if forced by circumstances to choose otherwise."
