US cannot force open Strait of Hormuz without major escalation, warns ex-diplomat

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iran retains a significant arsenal of missiles and especially drones despite US and Israeli strikes, and it possesses enough firepower to keep the strategic Strait of Hormuz under threat for the foreseeable future, a former senior US diplomat told Rudaw on Friday.

Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat specializing in Iranian affairs, told Rudaw’s Hevidar Zana in an interview that while American and Israeli operations have damaged Iran's missile infrastructure and its ability to rebuild weapons, Tehran still holds considerable drone capabilities that can inflict damage.

"The problem is that it doesn't take much in terms of rockets and drones and missiles to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed," Eyre said. "Iran has and will likely have for the foreseeable future enough missiles, rockets and drones to threaten the Strait of Hormuz."

US President Donald Trump said Friday that they can reopen the vital waterway - through which a large portion of the world's oil passes - “easily."

Eyre dismissed that assessment.

"I think opening the straits of, Strait of Hormuz militarily is not possible in any realistic timeframe," he said. "Theoretically, you could do it; the US military could do it. The problem is that once the US starts trying to open the Strait of Hormuz… Iran can retaliate by escalating against US soldiers, US ships, and also about critical uh infrastructure in the Gulf, Persian Gulf region."

Eyre added that the strait could only realistically be secured through diplomacy, not military force, warning that any attempt to open it by force would cause significant additional damage and destabilization.

"Someone, whether the US, the Europeans, the Gulf countries are going to have to negotiate with Iran so that Iran stops its threats against the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

On Trump's threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and other civilian facilities, Eyre expressed concern that such actions could amount to war crimes, yet appeared to believe the US president was prepared to carry them out.

However, he warned that increased US military pressure would not force Iran to surrender. "Iran is fighting for its life," Eyre said. "The more pressure that is put on it, the more it's going to escalate horizontally, horizontally and vertically throughout the region. And that's tremendously destabilizing not just to the Persian Gulf region, but to the global economy."

Regarding the duration of the conflict, Eyre was skeptical of Trump's suggestion that the war could end in two to three weeks, noting that the president often uses that timeframe when uncertain. He warned that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues beyond that period, the global economy would face rapidly worsening consequences.

In response to questions about Iranian-backed armed groups attacking the Kurdistan Region from inside Iraq, Eyre noted that the Iraqi government has historically had limited control over militias and Iranian activities within its borders.

"This is to be expected," he said, adding that as a practical matter, the United States would have little ability to influence events inside Iraq or shape its government after the current war with Iran ends. "That's up to the people and to the government of Iraq," he concluded.


The following is a full transcript of the interview with Alan Eyre:

Rudaw: At this time, to what level has Iran's missile capability remained, given that it is now using more missiles in its attacks?

Alan Eyre: Thank you for having me today. Yeah, I think that Iran still has a considerable number of missiles and, more importantly, drones. The US and Israel have tried to, to, to decrease their stock and to destroy their launchers, but as a practical matter, I think Iran still does have significant numbers of drones that they can use to inflict damage.

To what extent has the United States been able to destroy Iran's missile and drone capabilities? Are there any statistics available?

Yes, the US and Israel have significantly degraded not just the Iranian missile infrastructure but also the defense industrial base that will allow Iran to rebuild that whenever the war stops. The problem is that it doesn't take much in terms of rockets and drones and missiles to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. And that's where we are right now. Iran has and will likely have for the foreseeable future enough missiles, rockets and drones to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

Donald Trump, the US President, said today that opening the Strait of Hormuz could be done “easily." Is that true?

No, and in fact, I think opening the straits of, Strait of Hormuz militarily is not possible in any realistic timeframe. Theoretically, you could do it; the US military could do it. The problem is that once the US starts trying to open the Strait of Hormuz, uh, Hormuz, Iran can retaliate by escalating against US soldiers, US ships, and also about critical uh infrastructure in the Gulf, Persian Gulf region.

Do you expect European and Gulf countries to help the United States in opening the Strait of Hormuz?

I think the Strait of Hormuz can be opened realistically only diplomatically. In the sense that it cannot be opened militarily by anybody without significant additional damage and destabilization in the Persian Gulf. So at the end of the day, someone, whether the US, the Europeans, the Gulf countries are going to have to negotiate with Iran so that Iran stops its threats against the Strait of Hormuz. And the reason that is true is because it doesn't take much from Iran to keep the strait under threat.

Trump talks about destroying Iran's infrastructure. Will he carry out that threat?

Despite the fact that destroying civilian infrastructure, power plants, bridges, and, you know, desalination plants could be considered war crimes, unfortunately, it seems President Trump is willing to do that. The problem that President Trump is facing is that, however much he escalates militarily, Iran is not going to capitulate. Is not going to agree to the terms that the United States has on the table. So President Trump made the mistake of thinking that if he put enough pressure on Iran, Iran would in essence, in essence, surrender. But Iran is fighting for its life. And the more pressure that is put on it, the more it's going to escalate horizontally, horizontally and vertically throughout the region. And that's tremendously destabilizing not just to the Persian Gulf region, but to the global economy.

How long will this war continue? How many more weeks will it take?

Well, President Trump often uses two to three weeks when he doesn't know. So when he says it's going to be over in two to three weeks, to me that means he doesn't know when it's going to be over. I will say this: the economic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz being closed are going to be much worse very quickly. Um, there was sort of a lag between the strait being closed and economic consequences. That's going away now. So if this war lasts for more than two to three weeks, I suspect that the global economy is going to be in a much worse condition than it is now.

Armed groups inside Iraq continue to attack the Kurdistan Region. In your opinion, why has the Iraqi government not been able to prevent them?

Well, the Iraqi government has always had less than perfect control over the militias inside Iraq and also over Iran attacking in Iraq. So you're right, part of the consequences of this war are proxy groups, Iran proxy groups in Lebanon, in Iraq, uh in uh, in uh Yemen, attacking. And the Iraqi government doesn't have full control over the military forces inside the Iraqi borders. So this is to be expected.

Do you expect that after the war with Iran, the United States will fight against the armed groups supporting Tehran in Iraq?

As a prac- yeah as a practical matter, I don't think the United States can influence what goes on inside the Iraqi borders. We all know that the US government has preferences as to the type of government and the type of prime minister Iraq has, but as a practical matter, I don't think it's going to be able to shape Iraq in any way. That's up to the people and to the government of Iraq.