Drought, conflict, migration: Kurdistan’s new challenge – the climate crisis

Climate change represents one of the greatest challenges of our time, impacting not only our environment but also fundamental human rights. Particularly in fragile regions such as Kurdistan and Iraq, these impacts are already clearly visible. The interplay of ecological changes, political instability, and socioeconomic challenges requires comprehensive understanding and targeted actions.

Rising temperatures and water scarcity

The Kurdistan region is experiencing a significant increase in average temperatures. Reports indicate that by the year 2080, the annual mean temperature could rise by 5 to 7 degrees Celsius. This warming is leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, which reduce agricultural productivity and significantly strain water resources. Iraq, including Kurdistan, relies heavily on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. However, dam construction in neighboring countries and climate change itself have drastically reduced the flow of these rivers, leading to an approximate 40 percent decline in water availability in Iraq over recent decades.

Impacts on agriculture and food security

Agriculture constitutes the economic backbone of many parts of Kurdistan. Yet, increasing water scarcity and soil degradation due to salinization severely threaten agricultural production. Farmers are increasingly forced to abandon their land, devastating their livelihoods and compromising regional food security. Consequently, the region faces heightened dependence on imports, making it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in global market prices.

Internal migration and urban challenges

Ecological crises are compelling many people, particularly from rural areas, to migrate to urban centers such as Duhok, Erbil, and Sulaimani. These cities face considerable pressures in accommodating rapidly growing populations while simultaneously expanding infrastructure. The integration of internal migrants significantly burdens education, healthcare, and housing sectors, increasing the risk of social tensions. Studies demonstrate that climate-driven migration typically occurs within national borders, confronting migrants with diverse social and economic challenges in urban environments.

Health implications

Climate change has both direct and indirect effects on public health. Rising temperatures facilitate the spread of diseases such as Leishmaniasis, transmitted by sandflies. Additionally, deteriorating water quality leads to increased occurrences of diarrhea and other waterborne infections. In cities like Basra, more than 100,000 people required medical treatment in 2018 due to contaminated water.

Political instability and resource conflicts

The already fragile political situation in the Middle East is further exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. Water scarcity and competition over dwindling resources have the potential to intensify existing ethnic and political tensions. Access to water is increasingly becoming a geopolitical issue, especially when neighboring countries like Turkey and Iran influence water flow into Iraq through dam construction. Such external interventions heighten internal challenges and risk triggering further conflicts.

The necessity for integrated solutions

Facing these complex challenges necessitates a holistic approach. The government of Kurdistan, in cooperation with the Iraqi central government and international partners, must develop strategies addressing both ecological and socioeconomic aspects, including:

* Sustainable water management: Investments in efficient irrigation systems, rainwater harvesting, and initiatives to reduce water losses are crucial.

* Economic diversification: Reducing dependency on the oil sector by fostering alternative economic sectors, particularly renewable energy and sustainable agriculture, is essential. Germany and Iraq have already initiated a joint project aimed at sustainable water supply, providing clean water to approximately 130,000 residents in the Muthanna region.

* Social integration programs: Initiatives supporting internal migrants, including education and employment programs, can mitigate social tensions and promote integration.

* Healthcare provisions: Strengthening the healthcare system, especially concerning prevention and treatment of climate-related illnesses, is vital.

Conclusion

Climate change poses immense challenges to Kurdistan, extending far beyond environmental concerns and deeply impacting social, economic, and political structures. Additionally, the psychological well-being of the population faces significant risks, with expected increases in depression, anxiety, and physical health complaints. It is therefore imperative that climate policy and human rights policy are pursued collaboratively to safeguard livelihoods and protect future generations from the harshest effects of climate change. Only through coordinated, sustainable, and integrative approaches can we effectively address the diverse crises facing the region. The Kurdish struggle for identity and statehood now requires the new, insightful generation to focus sharply on the consequences of climate change.


Dr. Jan Ilhan Kizilhan is a psychologist, author and publisher, an expert in psychotraumatology, trauma, terror and war, transcultural psychiatry, psychotherapy and migration.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.