Iran-Israel-US enters new phase as Tehran names Trump-rejected supreme leader

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (1939-2026), the former supreme leader of Iran, on the first day of the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28, shifted global headlines within 24 hours from the Jeffrey Epstein case to the death of the Iranian leader and the escalating war in the Middle East.

As the Iran-Israel-US war continues to widen, Tehran’s Assembly of Experts - the clerical body responsible for selecting the ultimate arbiter of the country’s political and religious system - on Sunday elected Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the third supreme leader of the Islamic Republic.

The move came in defiance of US President Donald Trump, who had stated on Friday that the selection of the 56-year-old would be “unacceptable,” warning that he “is not going to last long” without Washington’s approval. On Monday, Trump reaffirmed his stance, telling NBC News, “I think they [the Iranian side] made a big mistake.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), however, has officially declared its support for Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasizing its readiness to carry out the incoming leader’s orders, indicating that further escalation will likely be in store.

Three-phase strategy

The US-Israel campaign against Iran entered its eleventh day on Tuesday, with bombardments largely targeting security and military installations as well as government institutions across the country.

US forces have struck more than 5,000 targets in the first ten days of Operation Epic Fury, the US Central Command said early Tuesday, noting that the campaign aims to dismantle Tehran’s security apparatus.

In a post on X, CENTCOM said its forces had struck “over 5,000” targets and left more than 50 Iranian ships “damaged or destroyed” since the campaign began on February 28 at the direction of US President Donald Trump.

A close observation of the US-Israeli operations shows that the offensive is largely divided into three distinct phases: eliminating the leadership and neutralizing air defenses; destroying bases and headquarters of the IRGC to weaken Iran’s military capacity and retaliatory capabilities; and dismantling the country’s military manufacturing and energy infrastructure.

The first and second phases were carried out rapidly during the first week of the escalation. By the third day of the war, IRGC and security centers in cities across Iran - including its Kurdish-majority western regions (Rojhelat) - had been targeted, followed by strikes on television towers and broadcasting facilities. The attacks also focused on active missile launch sites and military bases in an effort to cripple Iran’s ability to retaliate.

Major targets in Tehran included decision-making institutions such as the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Presidential Office, the Assembly of Experts building, and key security headquarters. Strategic defense and nuclear facilities, the judiciary, and the state broadcaster Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, as well as intelligence and police centers, were also targeted.

Following the bombings, a thick black cloud covered the sky over Tehran, prompting the Iranian health ministry to warn of severe air pollution and toxicity.

In major cities such as Isfahan, Qom, Shiraz, and Tabriz, nearly all IRGC headquarters - as well as police stations and intelligence offices - were also struck.

The third phase of the war began at the start of the second week, shifting the focus to airports, industrial plants, refineries, and oil depots.

On Saturday night and early Sunday, oil depots in southern Tehran - including the Aghdasieh depot in the east and the Shahran depot in the west - as well as the Fardis oil depot in Karaj were bombed.

On Sunday evening, the fuel depot at the airport on Qeshm Island was also struck, and on Saturday night and Sunday morning, oil depots in southern Tehran, the Aghdasieh oil depot in the east, the Shahran depot in the west, and the Fardis oil depot in Karaj were bombed.
On Sunday evening, the fuel depot at the Qeshm Island airport in southern Iran was also hit.

Official statements confirm that six people were killed and 21 others injured in the latter strikes.

The National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company confirmed that oil depots in Tehran and Karaj, along with fuel pipelines, were damaged, adding that four petroleum ministry employees were killed.

Eyes on Rojhelat

In Rojhelat, the attacks primarily focused on provincial internal security agencies, border control units, and tactical military infrastructure used for domestic suppression and regional operations.

Over the past 10 days, dozens of bases belonging to the IRGC, intelligence services, police, and the Basij were bombarded in more than 20 cities and towns across the region.

Despite the reported precision of the strikes, dozens of homes, hospitals, schools, mosques, and public spaces were also damaged, resulting in civilian casualties.

Pir-Hossein Koulivand, president of the Iranian Red Crescent Society, said in recent days that “13,785 civilian units have been targeted by airstrikes so far.”

According to Koulivand, of those 13,785 units, 2,383 were commercial properties and 11,293 were residential buildings. He added that nine hospitals are completely out of service and 65 schools have been struck, sustaining heavy damage.

Impact on the Kurdistan Region

For its part, Iran said on Friday it had launched more than 2,000 drones and over 600 missiles targeting US and Israeli positions as part of its multi-front response to the campaign. The Iranian strikes allegedly hit targets across all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The Iranian response has also included attacks carried out by groups aligned with the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon and Tehran-linked armed groups that have in recent days targeted alleged US positions in Iraq. The attacks have also affected the Kurdistan Region, where their impact has been significant.

According to monitoring by Rudaw, as of 11:30 pm local time on Monday, around 181 drone and missile attacks had been launched at Erbil Province, most of them targeting the city center.

Erbil Governor Omed Xoshnaw told Rudaw that the majority of the attacks were intercepted by air defense systems.

Meanwhile, in Sulaimani Province, attacks have been less frequent. According to Rudaw data, 23 drones and missiles targeted the province between last Tuesday and Monday night. The most intense strike occurred on Saturday night, when six drones hit the city center.

The nearby Halabja Province saw the fewest attacks. On Thursday, two drones struck Shnrwe Mountain. Rudaw has learned that the strike targeted communication towers belonging to the telecom companies Asiacell and Korek Telecom.

In the northern Duhok Province, three attacks involving four drones were recorded. One strike on Thursday night targeted the Sarsang oil field, leading to a total suspension of oil production.

According to statistics from the US-based human rights organization Community Peacemaker Teams (CPT), four people have been killed and 19 others wounded in retaliatory attacks in the Kurdistan Region since the first day of the war.

Kamaran Osman, head of CPT’s human rights desk, told Rudaw on Monday that “due to the attacks, two Kurdistan Freedom Party Peshmerga in Erbil province, one Komala Peshmerga in Sulaimani province, and one security staff member at Erbil International Airport have lost their lives.”
CPT also noted that 19 people were injured in the attacks on Erbil.