US Exudes Calm at Iranian Warships in Atlantic

LONDON – The Pentagon in Washington offered a remarkably sanguine response this week to an announcement by Iran that its warships were headed towards the United States’ maritime borders.

"We are not concerned about their announcement to send ships into the Atlantic,” Colonel Steve Warren, the Defense Department spokesman, told reporters on Monday. “Freedom of the seas applies to every nation."

The tone of the reaction was a measure of the scaling back of tensions between Tehran and Washington since Iran and six world powers, including the US, reached an interim accord late last year on resolving a dispute over the Iranian nuclear program.

The new mood also reflects cautious optimism about the ostensibly more moderate stance of Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, in contrast to that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his abrasive predecessor.

That perception is small consolation to internal dissidents in Iran, which has seen a spike in executions, including those of Kurdish activists, since Rouhani came to power last year. The crackdown is ascribed to hardliners opposed to the president’s stance on the nuclear issue.

But, for outside powers at least, his first months in power are viewed as positive.

In tenser times, the news that two vessels of Iran’s 29th fleet were on course for its navy’s first ever mission into the Atlantic Ocean might have set off alarm bells in Washington along with threats and demands for Tehran to desist.

However, amid hopes that the interim nuclear accord might eventually lead to a comprehensive deal on the nuclear issue, Washington appeared content to downplay the significance of the naval deployment.

Defence analysts in the US were happy to write off the naval adventure as linked more to Iran’s marking of the 35th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution than as a potential threat to America.

Meir Javedanfar, an Iran analyst at Israel’s Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, said the deployment was linked principally to domestic politics. “Hardliners in the regime want to ensure that any compromises on the nuclear issue are not interpreted as a sign of weakness,” he told Rudaw.

The reported Atlantic deployment, along with recent official statements about Iran’s naval preparedness, also send a signal that Iran has managed to create a potent home-grown fleet capable of confronting external enemies despite years of international sanctions.

Trade and financial sanctions linked to the nuclear dispute have impacted every aspect of Iranian economic life, as was reflected this month in the conclusions of an International Monetary Fund mission to the country.

The IMF found that tougher sanctions had contributed to a marked deterioration in the external environment that had contributed to weakening the Iranian economy.

That backed up the assessment of US and other Western officials and analysts that sanctions had forced the Iranian regime to the negotiating table. “It was definitely sanctions that forced Khamenei (Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) to allow President Rouhani to start talking,” said Mr. Javedanfar.

However, the IMF also cited weak economic management and said Iran was in need of wide-ranging reforms. The interim nuclear accord had improved the country’s prospects for the coming year but they “still remain highly uncertain,” according to Martin Cerisola, who led the IMF mission.

This slender prospect of an economic revival, linked to further progress on the nuclear issue, has already encouraged foreign businessmen to start thinking about the benefits of détente.

More than 100 French business representatives were in Tehran this month to talk about potential opportunities linked to a relaxation of international sanctions.

That earned a rebuke from Wendy Sherman, the US State Department’s under-secretary for political affairs, who reminded the French that “Tehran is not open for business because our sanctions relief is quite temporary, quite limited and quite targeted.”

The interim deal struck in Geneva in November offered Tehran an estimated $7 billion in sanctions relief in return for measures to limit its nuclear activities.

Ms. Sherman had previously said the deal was “not perfect” but had bought time in which to try to secure a comprehensive deal. The interim deal called for negotiation of a full agreement within a year.

That timetable and that agreement are nevertheless subject to upsets by hardliners on either side.

In the US, Republicans in the Senate with some Democratic support are continuing to press for a new Iran Sanctions Bill that would draw up in advance even tougher measures against Iran in the event of Tehran being judged to have reneged on the terms of the interim deal.

They have the support of neo-conservative commentators and of hardline lobby groups that include the Emergency Committee for Israel.

President Barack Obama has threatened to veto the measure, saying it would destroy the delicate negotiations with Iran. The White House said the bill would also divide the international community and drive the Iranians to take a harder line.

Any such legislation would certainly be seized on by hardliners in Iran to argue that the Americans were not to be trusted. That, in turn, would put pressure on President Rouhani’s government to freeze progress on a final agreement and possibly revive nuclear activities that are currently on hold.

In such circumstances, the Pentagon might be rather less relaxed about the appearance of Iranian warships on the Atlantic horizon.