Sudani-led delegation visit to Kurdistan fuels speculation of premiership bid revival

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The Shiite Coordination Framework delegation visited the Kurdistan Region on Monday to discuss the election of Iraq’s next president, the formation of the upcoming government, and regional developments, the office of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani - who is leading the high-profile delegation - reported. The visit comes amid signs that the outgoing premier may seek to revive his bid for another term in office.

The outgoing premier met with President Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, and Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani - who serve as the first and second deputies to the KDP leader, respectively - along with a number of senior figures from the party’s leadership.

Sudani’s delegation included senior Coordination Framework figures, among them Badr Organization head Hadi al-Ameri, former Iraqi deputy speaker and al-Asas Coalition leader Mohsen al-Madalawi, and the bloc’s secretary-general, Abbas Radi.

In a statement posted on X, the outgoing premier’s office said the meeting saw discussions about “the upcoming constitutional entitlements, foremost among them the election of the president of the republic, in order to move forward with completing the formation of the government with what aligns with the results of the [November] parliamentary elections.”

Iraq held its legislative elections in mid-November.

Since 2003, an informal power-sharing system has allocated the parliament’s speakership to Sunni Arabs, the premiership to Shiite parties, and the presidency to the Kurds.

The Iraqi parliament was scheduled to convene on Sunday to elect the country’s fifth Kurdish president. However, the session was later postponed, with no new date announced.

The postponement came as the KDP and the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have both nominated candidates for the Iraqi presidency, and their failure to agree on a single joint nominee has reportedly resulted in a political deadlock.

The PUK, which has largely held the mostly ceremonial post since 2003, argues that the presidency is its entitlement - a claim rejected by the KDP, which has reportedly offered the PUK all other federal positions in exchange for the presidency.

Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani remarked Sunday that “no agreement has been reached” with the rival PUK, though talks between the two parties are ongoing.

For his part, KDP leader President Masoud Barzani said on Monday, after meeting with the Coordination Framework delegation, that Iraq’s next president “should be a Kurdish candidate," adding that "a clear mechanism should be established for the election of the president to prevent any issues in the political process" and "according to this mechanism, the president should be elected."

Of note, the Shiite Coordination Framework delegation on Monday made a stop at the Kurdistan Region’s eastern Sulaimani province, long considered a bedrock of the PUK.

Between the lines

The Coordination Framework’s Secretary-General, Radi, on Sunday said the bloc is seeking to address the stalemate in electing a president by “bringing viewpoints [between the KDP and PUK] closer together,” while stressing “the importance of adhering to constitutional timelines.”

The Iraqi legislature convened on December 29 to elect its speaker and two deputies. Under the constitution, the president must be elected within 30 days of the first parliamentary session. Once sworn in, the president has up to 15 days to task the nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc with forming a government.

The Coordination Framework in mid-November announced that it had formed parliament’s largest bloc after its parties secured a combined 179 seats in the 329-member legislature in the recent elections.

Accordingly, the coalition of Shiite parties last week nominated former premier Nouri al-Maliki (2006-2014) - who also heads the State of Law coalition, which won 29 seats in the November ballot - for the post of prime minister.

However, Maliki’s nomination was quickly met with a seeming veto from US President Donald Trump, who said on Tuesday that the ex-premier was a “very bad choice” and warned that if elected, the United States would no longer assist Iraq.

Interestingly, just hours before the Coordination Framework delegation traveled to the Kurdistan Region on Monday, a letter widely circulated by local Iraqi media and attributed to the Secretariat of the Council of Ministers claimed that Sudani had relinquished his seat in the incoming parliament in order to remain in his role as caretaker premier.

However, in a seeming response, the Secretariat warned on Monday against “circulating content issued by pages not affiliated with it,” stressing that “any content or information published through unofficial pages does not represent it.”

The Sudani-led Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) emerged as the largest bloc in the 329-member parliament with 46 seats, while Maliki’s State of Law Coalition secured 29 seats.

In late December, the RDC underscored “the possibility of nominating one of its figures if an agreement is reached within the [Coordination] Framework on a unified nomination mechanism.” It further voiced its full commitment to the constellation’s decision and to “moving toward a political formula that ensures balance.”

The RDC’s statement came as Sudani had repeatedly expressed his desire for another term; however, his bid remained uncertain due to unclear support from the Shiite Coordination Framework, which had backed him during his first term in October 2022.

Sudani’s push stalled further in early December after he faced controversy over what he described as an “error” that led to the inclusion of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Ansarullah - widely known as the Houthis - on an Iraqi government list of organizations whose assets were to be frozen for alleged links to terrorist activity.

Both Hezbollah and Ansarullah are key members of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” a network of Tehran-aligned armed and political groups across the Middle East, including in Iraq. The asset-freeze decision prompted swift backlash from Iraqi figures aligned with the Axis and the Coordination Framework, who took aim at the premier.

However now, in light of the seeming US veto on Maliki, it remains to be seen whether Sudani’s bid for the premiership will be revived.