Sudani likely to secure second term as Iraq’s PM: Advisor

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraq’s November parliamentary elections are expected to redraw the country’s political map, with some major parties poised to lose ground and new players rising amid an atmosphere of stability and growing voter confidence, an advisor to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani told Rudaw on Saturday, expressing confidence that Sudani will stay in office for a second term.  

 

“Polls say so and he is strong among the people because of three years of stability and the services provided,” Farhad Alaadin, a senior advisor to Sudani said, referring to what he described as the prime minister’s growing popularity.

 

Despite expectations of a strong showing by Sudani’s list, the senior advisor underscored that Iraq’s political system makes single-party dominance impossible. “No party can win a majority alone,” he said, adding that “it will always need an agreement and coalition with other parties to form a government.”

 

“The next prime minister, most likely Mohammed Shia Sudani, should hold talks with other Shiite leaders and other parties to reach an agreement,” he explained, predicting that coalition talks will again be decisive in shaping the next government.

 

Concerns that regional tensions could impact Iraq’s elections, such as potential conflict between Israel and Iran or attacks by armed groups, were also downplayed. Alaadin noted that previous flare-ups in the region had little impact on Iraq’s internal stability. 

 

“There was 12 days of fighting between them, nothing happened in Iraq. There is nothing political that can cause the postponement of the elections, unless there is a very big disaster, which is beyond anyone's control,” he said.

 

“There is no scientific evidence to confirm this assumption. On the contrary, all preparations indicate that the elections will be held on time,” Alaadin said on speculation about a potential delay to the elections circulating on social media and among political commentators. Alaadin dismissed such claims as unfounded. 

 

The Kurdish advisor detailed that elections are “the main foundation of the democratic system in Iraq and the legitimacy of the current government comes from elections,” while noting that elections are the cornerstone of Iraq’s democratic legitimacy, warning that postponement could undermine the system entirely.

 

He added that all major political forces — Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite — are united in supporting the electoral process. “Not holding elections means losing legitimacy,” he stressed.

 

Alaadin said that after years of political volatility, Iraq is entering a new phase where the balance of power will shift noticeably following the next elections. He outlined several major changes that could redefine the political scene and voter behaviour. 

 

Foremost is the absence of the Sadr movement, led by powerful cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which will not participate for the first time. Sadr’s withdrawal removes a key force that previously commanded millions of votes and shaped government formation efforts. 

 

“For the first time, the Sadr Movement will not participate, which will have a significant impact on the results,” Alaadin said.

 

Sadr has firmly reiterated his refusal to participate in the 2025 legislative elections, denouncing the process as deeply compromised by “corruption.” 

 

Another major shift is the individual participation of traditional power blocs. The Badr Organization, for instance, is running independently and not as part of a coalition, breaking from its usual alliances. This fragmentation could open the field for smaller or emerging groups to gain representation.

 

The Badr Organization is a pro-Iran party led by Hadi al-Amiri. It has a strong representation in the federal cabinet.

 

Moreover, Alaadin highlighted that this election will take place under unprecedented political and security stability, unlike previous cycles that coincided with crises such as the 2014 ISIS invasion or the mass protests of 2021. 

 

“This election will be held after three years of complete political and military stability,” he noted, suggesting that stability may encourage higher voter turnout and a focus on governance and services rather than security fears.

 

Ultimately, he believes the post-election period will bring familiar scenes of negotiation among Iraq’s Shiite power brokers.

 

“When the dust settles, five or six leaders of Shiite factions, whether under the name of the coordination framework or any other name, will sit in a room and discuss. Of course, Mohammed Shia Sudani will sit at the top of the table,” he added.

 

As Iraq prepares for elections that could redefine its political order, the coming months may mark a turning point — one where stability and governance take precedence over sectarian divides, and the country’s political map is redrawn in favor of those who can deliver on both.

 

Iraq’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for November 11, with a special vote on November 10. The 329-seat parliament includes 320 general seats and nine minority quota seats. Campaigning has started since October 3. 

 

Based on the final results of the 2024 general population and housing census released in February, the population of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, stands at 46.1 million. Of this, approximately 27 million are eligible voters aged 19 and above. However, only those who possess biometric voting cards will be allowed to vote.