ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Politicians and pundits raised concerns about the influence of armed forces and foreign interference in Iraq at a conference put on by Rudaw Research Centre in Erbil on Monday about what to expect from Iraq’s October 10 election. A former Kurdish government official predicted that armed groups will have a bigger say over Iraq’s affairs. "I would say a parliament will be born after the election that is an armed parliament," said Mohammed Ihsan, former head of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) body responsible for the affairs of the disputed areas that are claimed by both the federal and regional governments. The election takes place almost four years after the territorial defeat of the Islamic State group (ISIS) in Iraq. Militia groups who rallied to join the battle against ISIS have gained clout, including political, after the war ended. They are also accused of campaigns of assassination and intimidation of activists and anti-government protesters who brought down the former government and demanded the early election. The October 2019 protest movement condemned endemic corruption, government failures in delivering services, and foreign interference in Iraqi affairs. Some protesters have formed political parties to contest the election. "We used to have corrupt politicians, but this time we will also have armed politicians and politically naïve people who are not politicians at all," said Ihsan. Members of the armed forces are banned from political office in Iraq, though many of the militia groups have affiliations with parties. One example is Hadi al-Amiri who heads both the political Fatih alliance and the armed Badr Organization. Abdulhusen Zirjawi, from the Badr Organization, said political parties in Iraq are more interested in the business of making money via the cabinet posts they are given, and all parties - big and small - compete to become part of the government, even if they only obtain the head of a department at a ministry. "The problem is not about who is the prime minister. It is with the political parties who have backed the prime minister," he said. External meddling is an issue that cannot be ignored, said Darbaz Mohammed, a former Iraqi minister of immigration and member of the Gorran party. "External interference, be it international or regional, has so much impact to a point that you have to meet outside [of Iraq] in order to appoint a minister," he said. The United States and Iran are seen as the main foreign players in Iraqi affairs. "You have to search for Iraqis in Iraq," Mohammed said. Electronic voting security Turnout is expected to be a record low with polls predicting just about 30 percent of eligible Iraqis will cast a ballot, amid concerns about electoral fraud and voter intimidation. The former head of Iraq's electoral commission said the electronic devices being used are “perfect,” but cautioned that cyber threats pose danger to the integrity of the results. "The electronic devices are perfect per se, but the problem is with the question of cyber security," said Sarbast Mustafa, adding that the same devices are used elsewhere in the world including in Russia. The Korean company Miru Systems provided the devices. Electronic voting was highly criticized in the 2018 election, with widespread allegations of fraud. The electronic devices were blamed for what some parties called rigged results. A senior KRG advisor, Dzhwar Tofiq, said Iraq does not have the technological skills and human resources for testing out electronic voting. "While Russia stands accused of hacking the election in the United States, what guarantees are there that the regional states are not going to hack the system here?" he asked. Nasrat Sofi from Kurdistan Center for Research and Surveys agreed there is a legitimate concern about cyber interference in the democratic process in Iraq. "Fraud and voter manipulation done with the use of technology impacts elections in far greater magnitude than traditional ways," Sofi said. New law The election is taking place under a new law that increased the number of voting districts from 18 to 83. The new system has the potential to dramatically change Iraq’s politics. KRG adviser Tofiq said the electoral districts were unfairly distributed and it puts Kurdish voters, in Kirkuk for example, at a disadvantage. Aram Jamal, head of the Kurdistan Institute for Elections, said the constituency divisions are not fair anywhere in the country. He said the average number of votes in Iraq is about 127,000 votes per seat. There will be hundreds of international observers monitoring the vote, in the country at the request of the Iraqi government. The United Nations has 130 observers, the largest group ever dispatched to any country, and the European Union has 80 monitors. Former electoral commissioner Sarbast Musatafa, while explaining that international observers are good to have, said they are not necessarily a guarantee that the election will be fair. The UN and other international bodies have been monitoring past elections in Iraq since the invasion in 2003, he noted. “In one polling station, during the vote on the constitution [in 2005], I saw the turnout was 140 percent. But everyone, including international observers, turned a blind eye because they wanted to just pass it on," Mustafa claimed, saying the responsibility to hold a clean election lies first and foremost with Iraqis themselves. For Aram Jamal, from the Kurdistan Institute, the new election law and widespread use of electronic devices expected to help announce the results within 24 hours after the polls closed might give a glimmer of hope. "Political parties used to know the old system very well, and how to maneuver the process. But the new system is new and therefore more difficult to get around," Jamal said, adding they have to wait and see if political parties have any surprises on election day.
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