Iraq is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including water and food insecurity, according to the United Nations. It is facing a severe water shortage because of reduced precipitation, higher temperatures, and waste and mismanagement.
According to the UN, over 130,000 people in southern Iraq are prone to displacement by the end of 2023 due to the effects of climate change. The NRC stressed that climate-related issues should be at the core of the post-conflict reconstruction agenda in the country.
Iraq has endured decades of conflict, nearly 1.2 million Iraqis continue to be internally displaced according to NRC and UN figures, with economic, political, and security risks preventing many from returning home. The study warned that worsening drought and social cohesion exacerbated by climate change increase the risks of secondary displacement.
Reduced international attention and humanitarian aid to Iraq have also contributed to these factors. The approach of aid organizations has largely shifted from humanitarian response to development, with donors arguing that Iraq’s oil revenue is enough to address its own challenges, the report stated.
“Iraq’s climate is changing faster than people can adapt,” said Anthony Zielicki, NRC interim Country Director in Iraq, in a press release. “For the 1.2 million still displaced by conflict, and the millions who have returned home, resettled or relocated, recovery from years of conflict is being crippled by extreme drought, and undermining hard-won gains in livelihoods and income security.”
NRC said that Iraq’s carbon emissions ranks as one of the highest in the Middle East and that if no action is taken, the “widening gap between water supply and demand will increase from around 5 billion to 11 billion cubic meters by 2035.”
Despite praising measures undertaken by the Iraqi government to combat climate change, Zielicki said that “we see an imperative to raise the alarm” as “the scale and speed of climate change impacts in Iraq requires urgent action on mitigation and adaptaion.”
While southern Iraq is largely believed to be the most prone to the repercussions of climate change due to its scorching summer temperatures, often hitting higher than 50 degrees Celsius, the study warned that the Nineveh Plains in northern Iraq will be the next hotspot.
This year, 60 percent of respondents told NRC they were reducing the land under cultivation or the amount of water being used to address the challenges. This, however, could lead to greater food insecurity in the area as food production will decrease. It added that one in five respondents in Baaj, a small town in Nineveh, linked social cohesion to drought.
The situation is dore for those living in the Nineveh Plains, with 24 percent of respondents telling NRC that they are considering to leave because of drought.
“Now, the bullets have stopped but we are still scared of losing our home,” a local farmer identified as Abu Rashid was cited by NRC as saying.
“All my neighbors have left. Only ten years ago, 35 people worked on my farm. This year, I could not even afford to feed my own family. Now, I work as a daily labourer to make ends meet. If this continues, I too will have to move soon,” he added.
In the aftermath of the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), which controlled large swathes of Iraqi territory, particularly in Nineveh, the area continues to face major security challenges. A security vacuum between the Peshmerga and Iraqi forces adds to the tension while many displaced fear to return to Nineveh due to animosity they face from locals.
The World Bank estimated in December 2022 that Iraq needs around $233 billion worth of investments by 2040 to respond to the effects of climate change.
While urging donors to increase funding for climate resilience programs in Iraq, NRC called on the Iraqi government to “take steps to monitor, regulate, and allocate the country’s water resources more effectively.”
