What can the hunger strike for Ocalan expect to achieve?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region—Analysts say that with the entrance of the Turkish army into Jarablus, in northern Syria, the prospect for launching another round of Kurdish peace talks in Turkey has become almost impossible. Therefore, they argue, the indefinite hunger strike announced on September 5 to force Ankara to disclose the situation of Abdulah Ocalan, the jailed Kurdish leader, with the aim of “re-launching negotiations with him,” will be futile. These analysts call on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to declare a unilateral ceasefire.
 
Some 50 Kurdish politicians and activists began an indefinite hunger strike on September 5 following a meeting of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Congress (DTK). The attempt comes as doubts have been raised about whether Ocalan is alive, especially after the failed Turkish coup d'état on July 15. The objective is to end the isolation of the Kurdish leader. 

A hunger strike until death is a compelling method of protest used by the political movement of Kurds in Turkey, and many times it achieved results.
 
The last hunger strike, which began on 12 September 2012, aimed at improving the situation of Abdullah Ocalan in prison, jailed since the Turks captured him in 1999.
 
PKK political prisoners declared the hunger strike and they were joined by people in the general population. It began with 68 people swelled as hundreds joined, including some parliamentarians from the then pro-Kurdish Peace and Democratic Party (BDP) and some mayors including the renowned Osman Baydemir, former mayor of Great Diyarbakir.
 
On November 17, 2012, Muhamad Ocalan visited his brother in his Imarali prison. He reported to the media that Ocalan had said the hunger strike achieved its objective. So after 68 days, the strikers ended their protest. The peace process soon followed.
 
Is the hunger strike futile?
The last time Ocalan met the Imrali delegation, consisting of senior Kurdish politicians, was on April 5, 2015. It has been 17 months since he last met anyone from his defense team, family members, or the Imrali delegation.
 
On August 31, the DTK met and made the decision to start a hunger strike with the objective of opening up communication with Ocalan.
 
Although analysts consider this method legitimate, they believe it should be used only when all other options have been exhausted.
 
Bayram Bozyel, a Kurdish politician, is one of those who believe the strike will change nothing. He told Rudaw, “HDP [the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party] is a strong party. It has 60 seats [in the Turkish parliament]. It can exercise influence in other ways.”
 
A few HDP MPs are participating in the hunger strike.
 
In order to re-launch the peace process, Bozyel believes it is essential for the PKK to announce a unilateral ceasefire. “With a ceasefire, the door to meet Ocalan and the peace process will open. The situation is very bad now beyond description. The PKK attacks the [Turkish] army. There cannot be a peace process in this situation. The PKK is not responsible for this situation alone, the [Turkish] state is responsible, too.”
 
Some observers, despite their frustration, look at the hunger strike positively. Cewad Onesh, the former deputy-head of Turkey’s intelligence agency, told Rudaw, “Any act aimed at bringing peace is important. Because the Diyarbakir hunger strike calls for peace, it has to be taken seriously and under consideration. But for peace to prevail there has to be preparations. Unfortunately the PKK attacks have become a continuous phenomenon. And this has become an obstacle on the road to peace.”

Onesh believes that the hunger strike may have the same outcome as before, especially since the Turkish people are eager for peace. “All the people of Turkey take an interest in calls for peace. It cannot be ruled out that the hunger strike could make its way into the prisons. If you remember, the hunger strike by the PKK prisoners ended on Ocalan’s command and directions. Then the peace process began with him.” 

Jarablus has weakened hope for a ceasefire 
Before the Turkish incursion into Jarablus on August 24, the peace process and the prospect of a unilateral ceasefire was a hot topic among the Kurdish population. This was particularly so after the PKK released a statement two days earlier saying that they were ready for peace if the Turkish state took the first step.
 
But the Jarablus operation soured the atmosphere. The war between Turkish forces and Kurdish groups around Jarablus weakened any prospect for a ceasefire.
 
The DTK puts more emphasis on ending Ocalan’s isolation, rather than calling for a ceasefire.
 
“The hope for peace is very weak,” said Professor Ehmet Ozer, vice-president of Toros University in Turkey. “We need things bigger than ceasefire. The PKK should declare a ceasefire, and [Turkey’s president] Erdogan to withdraw his hand in Rojava.”
 
Ozer has no doubt the hunger strike will go beyond the current 50 people, but he said, “It will be fruitless. After the coup Turkey has been kept in isolation by the United States and Europe. Turkey wants to break the isolation with the war against the Islamic State in Syria. But instead of the Islamic State, Turkey is now fighting the Kurds. It wants to rebuild the army, which faced destruction and exhaustion after the coup. Erdogan says ‘If I weaken the PYD and YPG in Rojava, my hand will become stronger in Turkey.’ Unfortunately this will be met by the PKK’s retaliation and the war in Turkey will reach a dangerous point.”

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım, speaking in a press conference, sent a message to the hunger strikers, “Peace process or stuff like this does not exist.”
 
Serhed Eren, a lawyer and the former president of the rights group of Mesopotamia, believes the situation will become even worse, and the suffering even more widespread.
 
He told Rudaw, “Supported by the prime minister’s remarks, it is apparent the hunger strike will achieve nothing. It is clear the nightmare will be even greater. The hunger strike may expand into the prisons. But for peace to prevail I don’t see any glimpse of hope. I fear the hunger strike brings more catastrophic results. In the past, hunger strikes brought bad results.”
 
Will this hunger strike bring the same results as came out of the 2012 hunger strike? Eren see differences between then and now.
 
“In 2012, the government had the will for a solution. The hunger strike was a [contributing] factor. The peace process was [already] in the works. Both the PKK and the state were ready for it. Then there was negotiation between the PKK and the state. But now there exists no negotiation between the state and the PKK, and the PKK and Ocalan.”