Analyst upbeat on Turkey-Kurdish peace
LONDON - Turkey's tough talking on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), against which it this week launched its first air strikes in two years, is unlikely to kill off the stalled peace process with the banned Kurdish group, according to the authoritative Turkish journalist and expert on the PKK, Rusen Cakir.
Mr Cakir said the bloody protests that shook the country after its refusal to intervene in support of Kurdish fighters in the Syrian border town of Kobane, besieged by Islamic State (IS), had demonstrated to the government how vital it was to continue the peace process.
“It was very shocking for (President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan to see during the protests that Kurds could destabilize the country; the Turkish state cannot afford it,” Mr Cakir told the Kurdish Progress Public Forum in London last night.
The fate of Kobane and the ensuing unrest among Turkey's Kurds has raised fears a two-year-old peace process could collapse and push the country back into violence. Turkey has enjoyed a relative calm since jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan called a ceasefire in March 2013 as part of that process, which aims to end 30 years of fighting that killed some 40,000 people.
“Turks realise finally that they have to make peace. I don’t see a war between the PKK and Turkey any more. Both sides realise that neither would gain from it,” said Mr Cakir, the author of books on both the PKK and Islam in Turkey.
His comments appeared to contradict events on the ground, as the Turkish ruling party yesterday submitted a bill to parliament which would reportedly grant sweeping new powers to the police, prompting the PKK to warn of an escalation in the conflict.
But this ratcheting up of tension is window-dressing, argues Mr Cakir.
He believes the government’s apparent reluctance to support the Kurds in Kobane and its hardline response to protests within Turkey are aimed at appeasing domestic nationalist sentiment.
“No one believes Erdogan when he says the PKK and ISIS are the same – not even him,” said Mr Cakir.
Many Turks, including left-wing secularists who might otherwise sympathise with the PKK, are antagonised by its demands for an autonomous region, which they see as striking at the heart of the founding principles of Kemal Ataturk, the architect of modern Turkey.
ISIS had played a clever game by attacking Kobane, said Mr Cakir, as Turks who feared Kurdish aspirations or who were particularly religious would support the Islamist group in a blood-feud with the PKK.
President Erdogan had to tread a delicate line to avoid stirring up the fears of Turkish nationalists while keeping alive a peace process that he sensed offers him the prospect of a lasting peace in the country, Mr Cakir said.
But away from the media spotlight Turkey was moving towards supporting the coalition – and by extension Kurdish fighters in Kobane, said Mr Cakir.
He maintains that Turkey has in fact agreed to allow the US to use Incirlik air base, near the border with Syria, despite Ankara’s denials, again aimed at placating a domestic audience which might consider this Turkey acting as a US stooge. He is also optimistic about the fate of Kobane, the fall of which Ocalan has said would destroy the peace process.
“If they can find a formula to save Kobane, and I think they have already done so, (the peace process) will go much better,” he said.
As part of this “formula” a representative of the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) had started working with the international coalition to call in air strikes on ISIS forces in Kobane, making them more effective, Mr Cakir said. No independent confirmation for his claim was possible. If true, it would mean that the YPG, its political wing, the PYD, and the closely-affiliated PKK were closely working with NATO forces in the coalition. This would be unprecedented as the PKK is deemed a terrorist organisation by Washington, NATO and the European Union because of its 30-year insurgency in Turkey.
“This is a historic rapprochement created by the reality on the ground,” Mr Cakir said.
Faced by ISIS aggression, Kurdish groups that have had traditionally fractious relations have also forged a common front, Mr Cakir said, giving as an example a reconciliation between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, Iraq and the PKK.
When the Yezidis fled from ISIS into the mountains in northern Iraq in August, YPG fighters worked with Peshmerga and US special forces to help them. These were all significant acts of rapprochement which could create the trust for a future confederation between autonomous Kurdish states in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, Mr Cakir said.
“If Kobane survives, and I think it will, and if ISIS is defeated by the PKK, the Turks and the coalition acting together, then peace (between the PKK and Ankara) will be easier to achieve than ever before,” he said.
Mr Cakir said the bloody protests that shook the country after its refusal to intervene in support of Kurdish fighters in the Syrian border town of Kobane, besieged by Islamic State (IS), had demonstrated to the government how vital it was to continue the peace process.
“It was very shocking for (President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan to see during the protests that Kurds could destabilize the country; the Turkish state cannot afford it,” Mr Cakir told the Kurdish Progress Public Forum in London last night.
The fate of Kobane and the ensuing unrest among Turkey's Kurds has raised fears a two-year-old peace process could collapse and push the country back into violence. Turkey has enjoyed a relative calm since jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan called a ceasefire in March 2013 as part of that process, which aims to end 30 years of fighting that killed some 40,000 people.
“Turks realise finally that they have to make peace. I don’t see a war between the PKK and Turkey any more. Both sides realise that neither would gain from it,” said Mr Cakir, the author of books on both the PKK and Islam in Turkey.
His comments appeared to contradict events on the ground, as the Turkish ruling party yesterday submitted a bill to parliament which would reportedly grant sweeping new powers to the police, prompting the PKK to warn of an escalation in the conflict.
But this ratcheting up of tension is window-dressing, argues Mr Cakir.
He believes the government’s apparent reluctance to support the Kurds in Kobane and its hardline response to protests within Turkey are aimed at appeasing domestic nationalist sentiment.
“No one believes Erdogan when he says the PKK and ISIS are the same – not even him,” said Mr Cakir.
Many Turks, including left-wing secularists who might otherwise sympathise with the PKK, are antagonised by its demands for an autonomous region, which they see as striking at the heart of the founding principles of Kemal Ataturk, the architect of modern Turkey.
ISIS had played a clever game by attacking Kobane, said Mr Cakir, as Turks who feared Kurdish aspirations or who were particularly religious would support the Islamist group in a blood-feud with the PKK.
President Erdogan had to tread a delicate line to avoid stirring up the fears of Turkish nationalists while keeping alive a peace process that he sensed offers him the prospect of a lasting peace in the country, Mr Cakir said.
But away from the media spotlight Turkey was moving towards supporting the coalition – and by extension Kurdish fighters in Kobane, said Mr Cakir.
He maintains that Turkey has in fact agreed to allow the US to use Incirlik air base, near the border with Syria, despite Ankara’s denials, again aimed at placating a domestic audience which might consider this Turkey acting as a US stooge. He is also optimistic about the fate of Kobane, the fall of which Ocalan has said would destroy the peace process.
“If they can find a formula to save Kobane, and I think they have already done so, (the peace process) will go much better,” he said.
As part of this “formula” a representative of the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) had started working with the international coalition to call in air strikes on ISIS forces in Kobane, making them more effective, Mr Cakir said. No independent confirmation for his claim was possible. If true, it would mean that the YPG, its political wing, the PYD, and the closely-affiliated PKK were closely working with NATO forces in the coalition. This would be unprecedented as the PKK is deemed a terrorist organisation by Washington, NATO and the European Union because of its 30-year insurgency in Turkey.
“This is a historic rapprochement created by the reality on the ground,” Mr Cakir said.
Faced by ISIS aggression, Kurdish groups that have had traditionally fractious relations have also forged a common front, Mr Cakir said, giving as an example a reconciliation between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, Iraq and the PKK.
When the Yezidis fled from ISIS into the mountains in northern Iraq in August, YPG fighters worked with Peshmerga and US special forces to help them. These were all significant acts of rapprochement which could create the trust for a future confederation between autonomous Kurdish states in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, Mr Cakir said.
“If Kobane survives, and I think it will, and if ISIS is defeated by the PKK, the Turks and the coalition acting together, then peace (between the PKK and Ankara) will be easier to achieve than ever before,” he said.