Kurdish Question Hangs in Limbo Amid Erdogan-Gulen Feud

LONDON—An unseemly brawl among members of the Turkish parliament last Saturday that left one hospitalized is another reminder of the deep feud between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Ergdogan and the Hizmet (Service) movement, led by Fethullah Gulen, the Islamist scholar who has millions of followers.

The punches came as parliament voted to increase government control over judges and prosecutors in a move justified by Erdogan as necessary to stamp out a “conspiracy” of Gulenists.

Critics say Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian moves, including steps to toughen controls on internet sites, are intended to protect his administration from legal proceedings arising from anti-corruption probes.

The European Union and United States have also expressed deep misgivings about the rule of law.

What is clear is that Erdogan’s 11-year leadership and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are under threat, given that the break with Hizmet appears irreconcilable.

Possible new alliances such as with the military, or deeper ties with Kurdish parties, have yet to be cemented and their impact on Erdogan’s electoral performance remain uncertain.

“Ergodan and Gulen - it’s over,” said Bill Park of King’s College, University of London. “The split is absolute.”

Next month’s local elections could provide the trigger to various possible scenarios, he said. Should Erdogan’s AKP perform badly, this might provide impetus for some members to break away. Abdullah Gul, Turkey’s president, could pose a challenge to Erdogan by not signing the new judiciary and Internet laws or even make a bid for the premiership himself.

Within Hizmet, some members might win their argument to bring the movement into the open and face Erdogan’s challenge to become a normal political party and not hide behind its social and charitable screen.

Analysts date the start of the feud to 2011 when Erdogan purged supporters of Gulen, who is based in the US, as well as backers of President Gul and liberals from the AKP party list before general elections that year.

The Gulenists reacted when in 2012 a prosecutor believed to be close to the movement tried to question Hakan Fidan, an intelligence chief, over his role in secret talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party that were opposed by Hizmet.

After the Gezi Park protests last year, Gulenists criticized Erdogan, who then said he would shut down Gulen-operated schools.

Last December, the corruption scandal broke with the detention of dozens of people, including businessmen close to the government and the sons of cabinet ministers.

The pro-Erdogan camp argues that the anti-corruption operation was spearheaded by prosecutors and police officers close to Gulen, who denies all involvement in the investigation. Many Gulenists argue the prime minister is trying to distract attention from the allegations, which include bribery, tender-fixing and illegal construction.

“Now, leading commentators in the AKP’s media inform that the ruling party hopes to forge new alliances - particularly with the military, its old enemy,” wrote Halil Karaveli in Foreign Affairs magazine.

“Coalitions may come and go but authoritarianism is forever - or so it seems in Turkey. The Turkish Islamists’ failure as managers of the state will most likely catapult the traditional custodians of the state, the rightist nationalists in the military and the bureaucracy who enjoy a considerable following in society, back to power.”

What this would mean for the Kurdish question is unclear. So far, the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), the Kurdish nationalist party, is standing by the AKP because it is the “best show in town” to further the now-stalled Kurdish peace process, said Park of King’s College.

The BDP risked losing the support of secularists and liberals if it did not fight to change the nature of Turkish politics to entrench democracy. “For my money, it seems to be naive to put all your eggs in Erdogan’s basket,” he said.

The opposition of Gulen and Hizmet to the Kurdish peace process could change, should they ever govern Turkey, said Park. They and Erdogan shared the same Turkish nationalism but the prime minister was forced to become pragmatic in power, he said.

“Gulen is nationalist and pro-Turkic,” said Park. “These are also Erdogan’s views but he needs the BDP electorally.”

The battle between Erdogan and Gulen will likely play out for some time. The Turkish government might launch a criminal investigation into the formation of “an illegal organization within the state,” which Hizmet supporters say they will fight, Reuters reported this month.

What is clear is that Hizmet will remain a player in Turkish politics. “They’re more careful than the military about revealing who is among them. They worked hard to put people in  government,” James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Turkey, told Reuters. “They're not going away.”