Kurds standing on the brink of change must not forget their history
There is an old saying that the reason behind writing about history is not only to pile up a record of events that happened, but to learn from their lessons. If you look back on the old and contemporary history of the Kurds, you will realize that one of the nations which didn’t learn lessons from its history is the Kurdish nation.
Our past is full of fatal and repetitive mistakes. It is full of treachery, fraternal wars, backstabbing, missed opportunities, failures to capitalize on opportunities and detect risks, as well as taking misguided downhill paths. This all led to the failure of revolutions, uprisings, loss of lives, and the splintering of Kurdistan’s territory.
The interests of the world’s superpowers and regional countries were reasons behind the splintering of Kurdistan’s territory and the oppression of Kurds. What is more, Kurds themselves were the reasons for their being marginalized.
The Kurds themselves were the reasons they failed to exploit opportunities which could have led to their emancipation and independence. Failing to look into events carefully and false evaluations of internal and regional developments have come at a high cost for the Kurds.
The world is expecting new changes and developments in regions where Kurds live. There are new opportunities for the Kurds due to the development of the Kurdish question, the strong position of the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Kurdistan’s strong political position in the region and beyond, and its natural resources which are global needs for the present and the future.
The Kurds can capitalize on these chances with little sacrifice. But unfortunately, they are about to miss these opportunities due to not understanding new equations and false readings of the developments.
Instead of anticipating new achievements, we can be expected to even lose the things we have already achieved, due to not learning lessons from history and choosing the same false paths.
Missing opportunities not only costs you the chances that present themselves to you, but will often become a danger to you. Many opportunities presented themselves to the Kurds, who later missed them. The opportunities were lost and the circumstances turned into big threats and dangers.
A few years ago, situations were apt for the Kurds to hold a national congress to outline their strategy, common objectives, and joint endeavors. Now, the risk of confrontation among them is a strong possibility.
The war on ISIS created an opportunity for southern [in Iraq] and western [in Syria] Kurdistan to unite, which could have been an acceptable outcome. Now we can see the result of not taking the opportunity. We can see the dangers awaiting us in southern and western Kurdistan.
Misreading events is a danger to doing politics. Disregarding possibilities is an even bigger danger. The Kurds have been facing perils due to misreading events. They are now more likely to face threats and dangers because of not taking into account certain possibilities.
In this article, I want to focus on two possibilities which will pose danger to the Kurds, with one possibility emanating from war, the other from peace.
There is a possibility of war in which Kurds will be the victims should they choose to take part in it. Similarly, there is a possibility for peace in which they will become victims, too. Neither of these is an impossibility. What is impossible, however, is for Kurds to think of these eventualities as a danger.
War between the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is very likely. They have entered into armed conflict in the past. The risks of military confrontation between the two will be high if they come into collision course under current circumstances. In short, it will be the Kurds who be the victims of the war.
The war between these two parties is very likely given the current regional conditions and relations between them. In addition, the war will serve the interests of both Turkey and Iran despite their disagreements.
Turkey wants to push its crises outside the country. It wants to distance the PKK from the country and undermine Kurdistan Region as a strategic source for its energy needs.
Likewise, Iran wants to undermine the magnitude of the Kurdistan Region’s position in the region, hoping that Kurdistan will collapse. Turkey and Iran can realize this wish only through a war between the PKK and KDP.
Kurds will become victims if a peace deal is secured among regional countries. It is possible that Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria can overcome the problems which currently exist among them. Peace is likely to happen if it can ensure common interests. It is clear that a state’s interests change the direction of its politics.
Currently, there is a new equation in the region. Iraq, Syria, and Iran are in one bloc. And it is possible that Turkey will join the alliance.
It is easy for Turkey to turn its back on the Kurdistan Region in the event its interests in this bloc are better ensured. This happened between Iraq and Iran in 1975. Iraq gave up part of its territory and water to Iran in return for Iran stopping its support for Barzani’s revolution.
This remains an open possibility. Iraq, Iran, and Syria can convince Turkey to close its gates to the Kurdistan Region in return for the resources which Turkey needs and can get from these three countries. In this case, the Kurds will become victims, too.
It is possible these dangerous eventualities will transpire in the future. The scenarios are related to the interests of the world’s superpowers and the four countries which have each conquered a part of Kurdistan. They are also related to Kurds themselves.
The lack of careful reading of the events, developments and possibilities, not understanding the regional equations, tying ourselves to a single path, will not lead to a certain future. The Kurdistan Region should get through this transitional phase to a phase of certainty in order for Kurds not to become victims of these possibilities and developments.
This can be achieved only through the establishment of an entity recognized by the international community. The question is whether the Kurds are prepared to choose this path or will they repeat the mistakes of their history.
Our past is full of fatal and repetitive mistakes. It is full of treachery, fraternal wars, backstabbing, missed opportunities, failures to capitalize on opportunities and detect risks, as well as taking misguided downhill paths. This all led to the failure of revolutions, uprisings, loss of lives, and the splintering of Kurdistan’s territory.
The interests of the world’s superpowers and regional countries were reasons behind the splintering of Kurdistan’s territory and the oppression of Kurds. What is more, Kurds themselves were the reasons for their being marginalized.
The Kurds themselves were the reasons they failed to exploit opportunities which could have led to their emancipation and independence. Failing to look into events carefully and false evaluations of internal and regional developments have come at a high cost for the Kurds.
The world is expecting new changes and developments in regions where Kurds live. There are new opportunities for the Kurds due to the development of the Kurdish question, the strong position of the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Kurdistan’s strong political position in the region and beyond, and its natural resources which are global needs for the present and the future.
The Kurds can capitalize on these chances with little sacrifice. But unfortunately, they are about to miss these opportunities due to not understanding new equations and false readings of the developments.
Instead of anticipating new achievements, we can be expected to even lose the things we have already achieved, due to not learning lessons from history and choosing the same false paths.
Missing opportunities not only costs you the chances that present themselves to you, but will often become a danger to you. Many opportunities presented themselves to the Kurds, who later missed them. The opportunities were lost and the circumstances turned into big threats and dangers.
A few years ago, situations were apt for the Kurds to hold a national congress to outline their strategy, common objectives, and joint endeavors. Now, the risk of confrontation among them is a strong possibility.
The war on ISIS created an opportunity for southern [in Iraq] and western [in Syria] Kurdistan to unite, which could have been an acceptable outcome. Now we can see the result of not taking the opportunity. We can see the dangers awaiting us in southern and western Kurdistan.
Misreading events is a danger to doing politics. Disregarding possibilities is an even bigger danger. The Kurds have been facing perils due to misreading events. They are now more likely to face threats and dangers because of not taking into account certain possibilities.
In this article, I want to focus on two possibilities which will pose danger to the Kurds, with one possibility emanating from war, the other from peace.
There is a possibility of war in which Kurds will be the victims should they choose to take part in it. Similarly, there is a possibility for peace in which they will become victims, too. Neither of these is an impossibility. What is impossible, however, is for Kurds to think of these eventualities as a danger.
War between the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is very likely. They have entered into armed conflict in the past. The risks of military confrontation between the two will be high if they come into collision course under current circumstances. In short, it will be the Kurds who be the victims of the war.
The war between these two parties is very likely given the current regional conditions and relations between them. In addition, the war will serve the interests of both Turkey and Iran despite their disagreements.
Turkey wants to push its crises outside the country. It wants to distance the PKK from the country and undermine Kurdistan Region as a strategic source for its energy needs.
Likewise, Iran wants to undermine the magnitude of the Kurdistan Region’s position in the region, hoping that Kurdistan will collapse. Turkey and Iran can realize this wish only through a war between the PKK and KDP.
Kurds will become victims if a peace deal is secured among regional countries. It is possible that Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria can overcome the problems which currently exist among them. Peace is likely to happen if it can ensure common interests. It is clear that a state’s interests change the direction of its politics.
Currently, there is a new equation in the region. Iraq, Syria, and Iran are in one bloc. And it is possible that Turkey will join the alliance.
It is easy for Turkey to turn its back on the Kurdistan Region in the event its interests in this bloc are better ensured. This happened between Iraq and Iran in 1975. Iraq gave up part of its territory and water to Iran in return for Iran stopping its support for Barzani’s revolution.
This remains an open possibility. Iraq, Iran, and Syria can convince Turkey to close its gates to the Kurdistan Region in return for the resources which Turkey needs and can get from these three countries. In this case, the Kurds will become victims, too.
It is possible these dangerous eventualities will transpire in the future. The scenarios are related to the interests of the world’s superpowers and the four countries which have each conquered a part of Kurdistan. They are also related to Kurds themselves.
The lack of careful reading of the events, developments and possibilities, not understanding the regional equations, tying ourselves to a single path, will not lead to a certain future. The Kurdistan Region should get through this transitional phase to a phase of certainty in order for Kurds not to become victims of these possibilities and developments.
This can be achieved only through the establishment of an entity recognized by the international community. The question is whether the Kurds are prepared to choose this path or will they repeat the mistakes of their history.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.