A Democracy Riddle from the Egyptian Sphinx

04-07-2013

One of Egypt’s greatest landmarks is an ancient stone sphinx of Giza, a giant ancient statue with the body of a lion and a human head. In Greek mythology, the sphinx posed a riddle to travelers: “What goes on four legs in the morning, on two legs at noon, and on three legs in the evening?” If they failed to answer the question correctly, the sphinx consumed them. When Oedipus answered “A man, who crawls on all fours as a baby, walks on two legs as an adult, and walks with a cane in old age,” the sphinx was forced to destroy itself.

This week we just received the answer to a modern riddle in Egypt, I think. It goes like this: “Who gets democratically elected in the morning, hoards power in the afternoon and is overthrown in the evening?” The answer, of course, is Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s latest head. As I write this, the Egyptian army just announced that they are removing Morsi from power and suspending the constitution that he and his coterie of Islamists pushed through a few months ago. The move comes after weeks of increasing protests against Morsi and his policies, protests that earlier this week saw millions of Egyptians take to the streets.

It goes like this: “Who gets democratically elected in the morning, hoards power in the afternoon and is overthrown in the evening?”

Morsi supporters and some observers reacted to the military’s coup by denouncing a mortal blow to Egyptian democracy and the aspirations of the Arab Spring. Others, including embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, discerned the death throes of political Islam in the region. Morsi opponents and secular liberals hailed a victory for democracy.

It’s still too early to tell, of course. A lot depends on how things unfold in the next few weeks and months. My friend Omar Ashour, a specialist on Egypt and political Islamists at the University of Exeter, asked on his Facebook page if this will end up like Turkey in 1997 or Algeria in 1992. In the Turkish case, the military removed Refah Party Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan from power and installed a replacement civilian government. From the ashes of this political defeat, a faction of Refah Party Islamists went on to form a more mildly Islamist party–Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Turkey maintained its electoral democracy and institutions, and the AKP now rules Turkey (although how long substantive democracy and its institutions will survive AKP rule is a question for another column). In the Algerian case, the military’s cancelling of an election that the Islamists seemed sure to win led to a decade of unimaginably brutal civil war.

It’s still too early to tell, of course. A lot depends on how things unfold in the next few weeks and months.

For things to proceed more peacefully in the short to medium term (no one is under the illusion that Egypt will enjoy complete peace in the days ahead), a few things must happen. Despite their bitter disappointment and frustration, Mr. Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters will have to temper their anger and refrain from violence. The new caretaker government, led by Egypt’s newly appointed Supreme Court Chief Justice, will have to work quickly to design a new set of political rules and an inclusive political system. That means that if and when democracy returns to Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies must still be allowed a place in the system and a fair chance at power. The new rules should guarantee that whoever wins future elections in Egypt, however, be restrained in their exercise and consolidation of power by robust checks and balances.

In the meantime, I do not think we can call Mr. Morsi’s removal from the presidency a blow to democracy. During his brief reign, he moved assiduously to remove any checks and powers on himself and his Muslim Brotherhood. The committee charged with revising the constitution under his watch even saw the resignation of every Coptic Christian and non-Islamist member. When the military announced Mr. Morsi’s removal, the head of Al Azhar (Egypt and the Sunni world’s preeminent center of Islamic thought), the head of the Coptic Christian Church and the defacto head of the liberal secular movement in Egypt (Mohammed el-Baradei) all pronounced their support for the move. Mr. Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood no longer even enjoy the support of many Islamists, so uncompromising was there attempt to consolidate all power around themselves.

In the meantime, I do not think we can call Mr. Morsi’s removal from the presidency a blow to democracy.

The Economist magazine recently described Mr. Morsi’s vision of an electoral dictatorship a “zombie democracy.” Such a democracy kind of looks like the real thing because it has elections, but in truth is no more than a hollow shell going through the motions. Without democratic governance, power sharing and checks and balances on executive authority, the whole exercise amounts to little more than a sham. Like anyone who has watched any zombie film knows, the only really effective way to get rid of such a travesty of humanity involves a blow to the head. If the people and military in Germany or Italy of the 1930s had similarly understood the need to aim for the head, elected leaders like Hitler and Mussolini might never have remained in power as long as they did.

David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since August 2010. He is the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and author of The Kurdish Nationalist Movement (2006, Cambridge University Press).