How much oil can Iraq export without the Strait of Hormuz?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The amount of oil exported by Iraq in March 2026 dropped significantly compared to previous months, because since March 7, it has not been able to export oil through the Strait of Hormuz to global markets. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues as it is now, Iraq’s total oil exports and revenues will decline day by day, because oil prices have fallen, export costs have increased, and only about one-seventh of exports can be carried out without Hormuz.

Last month, due to high oil prices, Iraq was able to compensate for the lower export volumes, as each barrel sold for over $100. However, sustaining this system depends on oil revenues and the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, because the amount of oil Iraq can export daily without Hormuz does not reach half a million barrels even under ideal conditions.

The war between the United States and Israel against Iran began early on February 28 and lasted until April 8, leading Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz on March 8, creating risks of targeting ships, especially oil tankers.

After the ceasefire on April 8 between the United States and Iran and 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, it is still unclear whether the waterway will reopen or remain closed as it is now. However, reports indicate that Iraqi and Saudi oil shipments passed under Chinese flags during the Pakistan negotiations.

In February, Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) exported 3.56 million barrels per day via both tankers and pipelines. In March, exports dropped to 580,000 barrels per day, bringing total exports from 99.87 million barrels in February down to 18 million barrels in March. Iraq’s oil exports last month were the lowest in 17 years

According to SOMO Director General Ali Nizar, Iraq exported about 18 million barrels of oil in March 2026 - an average of 580,000 barrels per day - selling each barrel at around $105.

If risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist and Iraq cannot deliver oil shipments to customers in Asian, European, and American markets, export volumes this month will decline further compared to last month. During the war - especially from its start until March 7 - SOMO managed to load and ship about 12 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz.

From December 2011 to March 2026, this is the first time Iraq’s exports have dropped so sharply. Even during the early COVID-19 period, when global demand collapsed, Iraq still exported 2.8 million barrels per day. But in March 2026, this fell to just 580,000 barrels per day, about one-third of which came via the Kurdistan pipeline.



War and Iraq’s monthly oil revenues

Nizar stated that March revenues are about 28 percent of February’s total, meaning oil revenues for March are approximately $1.96-2 billion, compared to $6.81 billion in February.

As shown in Iraq’s monthly revenue data from 2011 to 2026, 2026 revenues resemble April 2020 levels. Although daily exports in March this year were only 580,000 barrels, compared to 3.438 million barrels in April 2020, oil prices largely determine revenue.

April 2026 revenues may decline even further compared to March, due to falling oil prices and the continued disruption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran allowing limited passage that has not yet normalized.



Iraq’s alternative oil export routes

Currently, Iraq’s main alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is the Kurdistan Region pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It carries just over 200,000 barrels per day, of which 20,000–30,000 barrels come from the Region’s fields. If Iraq manages to control Iran-backed armed groups, it could add around 250,000 barrels per day from fields operated by international companies, potentially raising capacity to about 500,000 barrels per day via Ceyhan to European and American markets.

The second route is transporting oil by tanker trucks to Syria, then to the port of Baniyas. Currently, about 50,000 barrels per day are moved this way, with plans to add another 50,000 barrels of Basra crude. In total, exports via Syria could reach 100,000 barrels per day, requiring around 450 tanker trucks operating continuously.

The third route is to Jordan, where 9,000-10,000 barrels per day of Kirkuk crude have previously been transported at discounted prices. However, expanding this route is uncertain due to the lack of pipeline infrastructure.

On Friday, Iraq’s Oil Ministry announced it had asked Jordan to allow oil exports via tankers. Meanwhile, Jordan is awaiting technical assessments. A spokesperson for Jordan’s Ministry of Energy stated that currently no oil is being exported from Iraq to Jordan, though discussions are ongoing about using Jordanian territory to transport crude and fuel to global markets. Jordan has only one port - Aqaba on the Red Sea - which includes facilities for oil and gas transport.

Even if all three alternative routes operate at maximum capacity, Iraq’s total exports would not exceed 600,000 barrels per day. Transporting 100,000 barrels by tanker requires more than 450 trucks, highlighting logistical challenges.

Additionally, since Kirkuk oil began flowing through the Kurdistan pipeline to Ceyhan, about 170,000 barrels per day from southern Iraq are redirected to the Baiji refinery for domestic use, replacing supplies previously coming from Kirkuk fields.

Transporting oil domestically by tanker trucks - around 230 trucks per 50,000 barrels - will increase road traffic and could damage infrastructure, while also raising production and transport costs. For example, according to the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), transporting one barrel via Syria costs about $17.

Ultimately, in March, despite lower export volumes, Iraq generated higher-than-expected revenue due to high oil prices. Compared to February, Iraq managed to earn about one-third of its previous revenue from just one-seventh of its export volume.

However, if the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran continues, disruptions to oil and gas production in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, along with blocked exports through the Strait of Hormuz, point to increasing economic pressure on Iraq in the coming period.