Barham Salih: A Guaranteed Place in the KDP

Up till the Kurdish uprising of 1991, Barham Salih was an unknown figure in Kurdish politics. But he had good relations with Jalal Talabani’s family. He is one of the politicians made by Talabani. There are many politicians in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) who have become prominent politicians with Talabani’s support, including Salih.

Until 2009, when he was authorized to form the sixth cabinet of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Salih was a great supporter of Talabani. He had the leader’s full confidence, in particular after the separation of Nawshirwan Mustafa. Salih was a good balancer, and Talabani prepared him as his successor.

After 2009, relations between Salih and Talabani’s family started to fade, to the point of strong rivalry with Hero Ibrahim Ahmed, Iraq’s first lady. The recent election, marginalizing the role of Salih in PUK’s leadership and the control of power within PUK by Hero Ahmed, are no longer party secrets. They are all well-covered by the media. Only a few people might not know about Salih’s real intentions.

The unclear fate of Talabani and the knowledge of his life or death have given Hero de facto power. From time-to-time, she travels abroad. Whenever she feels there is huge demand for information about Talabani’s health, she immediately releases some photos of him, or news that he has walked to some place.

The first lady, and people very close to her, are aware of what has happened to Talabani, and with that secret they are ruling the PUK. Or at least, they are trying to solidify their positions and the family’s rule within the PUK, before the secret is revealed.

Last week, Salih staged a huge political show by holding the Sulaimani Forum. As Turks say, “he showed his tooth to his rival.” But this doesn’t seem to be enough to guarantee Salih’s future rule of the PUK, especially at this time when he has announced he is no longer the deputy secretary general, and that he will remain a regular party member until the congress.

Salih is making concerted efforts to come out of the PUK congress as the party leader. However, it has to be noted that a large portion of PUK’s capital is under the control of Talabani’s family, and marginalizing Hero and her influence is substantially more difficult than what people think.

 Even if Salih is selected as the PUK general secretary at the congress, his power over the party will be equal to his power over Sulaimani during his premiership from 2009-2011. Therefore, it seems that the “Talabani doctrine” will remain for Talabani’s family, and those who believe in it.

 Those, like Salih, who are convinced that the party needs to be reformed and that it should count for its votes among the living -- rather than counting its martyrs and the number of conflicts it has fought -- in the near future might find a different path. Do not be surprised if Salih cannot tolerate the PUK in its current form. He has a place guaranteed in the Kurdistan Democratic Party.