Independent state for Iraqi Kurdistan benefits Turkey
In addition to serving the interests of the nations in Kurdistan, an independent state will have other benefits. The counter-terrorism alliance between Kurdish security and the international coalition is testament to this. There was no suitable place in Syria and Iraq where an alliance such as this could have been formed easily. The Kurdistan Region has proven to be the place.
Had it not been for a stable and friendly Kurdistan, it would have been difficult to form such an important alliance between the international community and locals in order to counter the terror caused by ISIS, as it recently came to light that the Iraqi and Syrian governments were not helpful in forming the international western alliance on their territory.
The Iraqi government did not only fail to assist the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, rather, it often prevented international assistance and supplies from reaching them. In spite of all these difficulties, the Peshmerga fought and have successfully driven ISIS away from its borders.
The strengthening of Peshmerga forces remains in the interest of both Turkey and the US-led international coalition, because Iranian-influenced paramilitias and forces hostile to Turkey have controlled areas void of the Peshmerga forces, as is the case in parts of Shingal.
Moreover, the state of Kurdistan is favorable for the Sunnis to remain a part of Iraq. Nearly half of the Sunni population in Iraq has become refugees, and those remaining in the country have had their economic infrastructure destroyed by ISIS and Iraqi forces. The remaining Sunnis will lose hope and leave if an independent Kurdistan state is not formed.
Kurdistan gives much hope to a future Iraqi Shiite-Sunni power balance and their staying as a part of Iraq. It will help to give them with the opportunity to form a political framework that will provide them with a peaceful and civil life away from violence, rather than going abroad or forming violent and fringe organizations like ISIS. If independence for Kurdistan is not reached, the extremists will take their anger of being refugees and Shiite dominance over Iraq out in America, the West, Turkey and Arab Gulf countries.
The formation of the Kurdistan state is in the interest of Turkey because the two neighbors share strategic security interests. Otherwise, paramilitary groups which have a problem with the existence of Turkey will be on its doorstep. The Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitaries have now set up bases in Mosul and many other Sunni areas. The Iraqi Sunnis themselves have said that these militias and Shiite parties have come and will not leave, instead intending to turn them into Shiite zones. In the face of the Shiite incursions, the Sunnis will face another violent group like ISIS, if they don't have a force that has support.
The second nation in the state of Kurdistan will be the Turkmen who will have their own national identity. But if the current situation in Iraq continues on its current trajectory, Turkmen will lose their national identity and will splinter along sectarian identities. And it can be reasoned that such a split would only be followed by their destruction.
An independent Kurdistan will have Turkey as its gateway for oil sales and trade. But Iraq will have Basra and the Shiite crescent in Syria and Iran as its gateways for selling its oil. Currently, the Kurdistan Region is Turkey’s third biggest export market. But the Iraqi government wants to connect the oilfields of Kirkuk and the Kurdistan Region to Iran. Spoiling the relations which Turkey has with the Kurdistan Region is an objective of Iran in order to ensure it can further connect with this region. Iranian officials have openly on several occasions asked why the Kurdistan Region doesn't do the volume of trading it does with Turkey.
The strong leadership in the Kurdistan Region of the President Masoud Barzani has contributed to peace in the broader region. And Turkey needs this stability more than most. Most Kurds in Turkey know that Barzani says having strong relations between the Turkish government with Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has been of much use to the Turkish president and the Justice and Development party (AKP). And this is because the Kurds who vote for the AKP do so partly because of the strong and friendly relations between the Turkish President Erdogan, AKP, Barzani and the KRG.
In the absence of these relations, the AKP’s votes among the Kurds will decrease. It is clear that the AKP’s votes in the recent two elections and the amendment of the Turkish constitution would have been different had it not been for Kurdish voters.
A referendum on the fate of Kurdistan in Iraq will be held on September 25. Holding a referendum is an internal process that aims to know about the desires of the people of Kurdistan, but building a state is a political and international process requiring internal and external preparations. An independent state of Kurdistan shall not simply be built on September 26.