The brutal clarity of the UK’s electoral arithmetic
There’s nothing as ex as an ex-MP is a poignant observation defeated parliamentarians often make. One day, they are making pronouncements to the nation and the next they’re packing up their offices and worrying about their livelihoods. The brutal clarity renders most old calculations irrelevant and in spades in this historic landslide for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives.
Take the fate of young Durham MP Laura Pidcock. She was a shoe in to take over from Jeremy Corbyn but unexpectedly lost her seat to Richard Holden, a former aide to a Defence Minister. Pidcock becomes Labour’s lost leader perhaps while Holden is one of many Conservatives who breached Labour’s so-called Red Wall in the north and delivered a thumping victory to Boris Johnson.
Pidcock personifies some of Labour’s problems. When she was first elected in 2017 she pronounced that she could never befriend Conservatives. It’s one thing to have profound political differences with your opponents but quite another to avoid the respect that comes from engaging with opponents. Pidcock often flailed in interviews where she superficially dismissed questions that challenged her assumptions.
In defeat, she penned a letter to her former constituents that includes convoluted phrases that George Orwell would have mocked. For example, that “People who were less friendly to Labour spoke about how damaging a divided party is, about things like the IRA and the connections internationally that you didn’t understand or agree with.” It wasn’t just those who opposed Labour who were critical of the hard-left’s dalliances with the IRA. It wasn’t a question of understanding which implies that the critique was a smear.
Pidcock and many party members had no inkling of Labour’s worst defeat since 1935 in which Labour’s parliamentary representation was slashed from 262 to 203 out of 650 seats. Labour could have lost a further 20 seats were it not for the Brexit party depriving Conservatives of votes. Labour endured a similar humiliation in 1983 and waited 14 years for the victory of Tony Blair, now the only Labour leader born in the last 100 years to have won elections.
The notion that Labour can bound to 326 or more seats in five years seems vanishingly unlikely. Labour could also go backwards in about 90 mainly Labour seats with majorities under 6,000 that are vulnerable to a Conservative challenge. And boundary changes could also reduce the Labour tally.
Labour once relied on about 40 seats in Scotland and its Red Wall. Scotland now seems entirely lost to Labour, which is not even the official opposition there to the SNP. The margins of many Conservative seats in the north are small but the new government will fashion policies and funding that reward its new MPs. Brexit is done in the sense that it can no longer be reversed. Johnson has the majority to weave almost whichever way he wants.
The duopoly of the two main parties was preserved but at a perilous level for Labour. I privately predicted the result to friends (honestly) but didn’t believe my own instincts and the debate is now about whether Labour can survive two or more terms of a Conservative government.
Much depends on who takes over from the failed Corbyn experiment. Corbyn continues to squat in his office in what appears to be an attempt to preserve his legacy. It would have been more usual for a defeated leader to have stood down immediately in favour of an interim leader who would hold the government to account and hold the ring in the leadership election.
New leadership is one of the few cards a party has in this situation. More of the same is a form of denial. A charismatic leader could keep the party in the running even if it means at best returning to 2017 levels on the first go.
But Labour has yet to get the measure of Boris Johnson who’s happy to be under-estimated as a sometimes buffoonish toff who can quote Latin, Greek or goof around when he faces difficult questions. But he commands a strong political machine that won Brexit against the odds and defied electoral laws to win a fourth term for the Conservatives in a time of great political crisis.
Durham has long been a beating heart of the labour movement. Ever year thousands of people gather for the Durham Miners’ Gala where leaders of the left parade their wares. The left-wing MP and former miner, Dennis Skinner was an old favourite but he lost his seat after nearly 50 years while rising star Pidcock won her spurs last time with an elegiac defence of Corbyn. The 2020 Gala will take place in a city with a Conservative MP for the first time in 70 years.
The election result seems to vindicate the ruthless pragmatism of the Conservatives in reinventing their brand and expanding their electoral base. They are on a winning streak and will now do their utmost to ram home their advantages.
After four national elections in as many years and crunch parliamentary votes every few weeks, we can now start thinking in decades or even generations and not least on its international relations where Britain has been treading water. Downing Street is undertaking a radical review of defence and foreign policy and how it can defend and advance its interests in the coming decade. The review matters to Britain’s allies such as the Kurds and the all-party parliamentary group on the Kurdistan Region, which will re-establish itself in the new year. In the meantime, happy new year to one and all.
Gary Kent is the Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) and a Fellow of Soran University. He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com. The APPG was suspended ahead of the general election.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
Take the fate of young Durham MP Laura Pidcock. She was a shoe in to take over from Jeremy Corbyn but unexpectedly lost her seat to Richard Holden, a former aide to a Defence Minister. Pidcock becomes Labour’s lost leader perhaps while Holden is one of many Conservatives who breached Labour’s so-called Red Wall in the north and delivered a thumping victory to Boris Johnson.
Pidcock personifies some of Labour’s problems. When she was first elected in 2017 she pronounced that she could never befriend Conservatives. It’s one thing to have profound political differences with your opponents but quite another to avoid the respect that comes from engaging with opponents. Pidcock often flailed in interviews where she superficially dismissed questions that challenged her assumptions.
In defeat, she penned a letter to her former constituents that includes convoluted phrases that George Orwell would have mocked. For example, that “People who were less friendly to Labour spoke about how damaging a divided party is, about things like the IRA and the connections internationally that you didn’t understand or agree with.” It wasn’t just those who opposed Labour who were critical of the hard-left’s dalliances with the IRA. It wasn’t a question of understanding which implies that the critique was a smear.
Pidcock and many party members had no inkling of Labour’s worst defeat since 1935 in which Labour’s parliamentary representation was slashed from 262 to 203 out of 650 seats. Labour could have lost a further 20 seats were it not for the Brexit party depriving Conservatives of votes. Labour endured a similar humiliation in 1983 and waited 14 years for the victory of Tony Blair, now the only Labour leader born in the last 100 years to have won elections.
The notion that Labour can bound to 326 or more seats in five years seems vanishingly unlikely. Labour could also go backwards in about 90 mainly Labour seats with majorities under 6,000 that are vulnerable to a Conservative challenge. And boundary changes could also reduce the Labour tally.
Labour once relied on about 40 seats in Scotland and its Red Wall. Scotland now seems entirely lost to Labour, which is not even the official opposition there to the SNP. The margins of many Conservative seats in the north are small but the new government will fashion policies and funding that reward its new MPs. Brexit is done in the sense that it can no longer be reversed. Johnson has the majority to weave almost whichever way he wants.
The duopoly of the two main parties was preserved but at a perilous level for Labour. I privately predicted the result to friends (honestly) but didn’t believe my own instincts and the debate is now about whether Labour can survive two or more terms of a Conservative government.
Much depends on who takes over from the failed Corbyn experiment. Corbyn continues to squat in his office in what appears to be an attempt to preserve his legacy. It would have been more usual for a defeated leader to have stood down immediately in favour of an interim leader who would hold the government to account and hold the ring in the leadership election.
New leadership is one of the few cards a party has in this situation. More of the same is a form of denial. A charismatic leader could keep the party in the running even if it means at best returning to 2017 levels on the first go.
But Labour has yet to get the measure of Boris Johnson who’s happy to be under-estimated as a sometimes buffoonish toff who can quote Latin, Greek or goof around when he faces difficult questions. But he commands a strong political machine that won Brexit against the odds and defied electoral laws to win a fourth term for the Conservatives in a time of great political crisis.
Durham has long been a beating heart of the labour movement. Ever year thousands of people gather for the Durham Miners’ Gala where leaders of the left parade their wares. The left-wing MP and former miner, Dennis Skinner was an old favourite but he lost his seat after nearly 50 years while rising star Pidcock won her spurs last time with an elegiac defence of Corbyn. The 2020 Gala will take place in a city with a Conservative MP for the first time in 70 years.
The election result seems to vindicate the ruthless pragmatism of the Conservatives in reinventing their brand and expanding their electoral base. They are on a winning streak and will now do their utmost to ram home their advantages.
After four national elections in as many years and crunch parliamentary votes every few weeks, we can now start thinking in decades or even generations and not least on its international relations where Britain has been treading water. Downing Street is undertaking a radical review of defence and foreign policy and how it can defend and advance its interests in the coming decade. The review matters to Britain’s allies such as the Kurds and the all-party parliamentary group on the Kurdistan Region, which will re-establish itself in the new year. In the meantime, happy new year to one and all.
Gary Kent is the Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) and a Fellow of Soran University. He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com. The APPG was suspended ahead of the general election.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.