President Barzani Must Think Broader Than His Party Advisors
The declaration of a Kurdish state has been President Massoud Barzani’s dream for a long time. In public interviews over the past two decades, he has explained that he longs to see an independent Kurdish state, a dream he shares with his deceased and legendary father Mustafa Barzani, and which the Kurds have been anticipating for centuries.
With all due respect to the president, I want to express an honest view of the reality of the current situation in Kurdistan.
Kurdistan has experienced political transformation in the past five years. People may view this as a radical change in Kurdistan’s political system. But it is not.
The two main ideologies, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) that have dominated Kurdistan’s political arena since the 1960s, still very much exist. Those who support the opposition Change Movement (Gorran) and the PUK share a common adversary: the KDP. It takes only general knowledge about Kurdistan’s political history to recognize that the old rivalry toward KDP is still the same today. The main competition between the KDP’s opponents is who should take the lead against KDP.
A quick glance at the key players in Kurdistan’s political system may explain this.
The KDP has dominated the significant posts in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In spite of its long history and struggle, KDP enjoys one-third of the Kurdistan Region’s votes. For the past decade, family rivalries and disagreements on how to run the region have been developing inside KDP. It could change the course of history. Yet, the president has been silent.
The KDP leader has been occupied with great ideas like establishing an independent Kurdish state and finding solutions for the Kurdish issues in all four parts of Kurdistan in the Middle East. Yet, he is not willing to entrust Gorran, a group that is about to replace PUK and came in second place during the parliamentary election, with an interior ministry that has no strategic significance. His advisors have counseled the president that his party is the only ruler of Kurdistan, but they haven’t realized that one cannot be the sole ruler with only one-third of the votes. The KDP could have won more than 50 seats in the recent parliamentary election if it had focused on its rivals rather than disparaging its own members.
There is a famous motto among PUK members: “It is better to completely tear down the old house and build a new one from the foundation!” Politically speaking, the PUK should no longer be accounted for because its leadership doesn’t want to dwell in the old house. Someday, the house will collapse on those who insist to remain in the old house. It is useless for Barzani to depend on this party, nor can he take over its remnant. The current PUK supporters, who are leaning toward Gorran, don’t belong to KDP.
PUK’s new leadership is Shiite oriented. Even though it receives support from Iran and the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Maliki, it is not clear how much longer it continues to survive. However, what is clear is that they will always remain as KDP’s opponent. There will be a few PUK officials join the KDP, but not enough worth mentioning.
The Change Movement’s senior members were the masterminds of the PUK for years. Even though Jalal Talabani was the leader, these people were still very influential inside PUK. Talabani’s absence allowed them to take over completely. So, it is crucial for KDP to come to an agreement with Gorran because there is no longer such a thing as PUK.
If President Barzani is seeking to establish the Kurdish state, he must come to terms with Gorran, because there are always possibilities that the KDP opponents turn against Barzani. So if Barzani doesn't come to an agreement with Gorran, it is possible that Gorran and the new PUK leadership create another region and add it to the disputed territories.
For Gorran supporters, the message of an independent Kurdish state does not fool them. And for their leader, the Kurdistan Region is still Iraqi Kurdistan, and his priority is to improve the lives of Kurdish people.
Meanwhile the Islamic parties have been active in Kurdistan for more than two decades. The Islamic movement couldn’t make much progress due to the conservative approaches of the ruling parties. Moreover, the Islamists hadn’t played a significant role in the Kurdish struggle. Their support doesn’t exceed 15 percent in Kurdistan. That is why they will never become a major player in Kurdistan’s internal and external issues.