Comical Ali rides again
Memories of Comical Ali came flooding back last week. You remember Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, Saddam Hussein's Minister of Information who asserted Baghdad was in Iraqi hands just as American tanks rumbled into view.
A host of hapless Labour spokespersons were sent into battle in the television studios last week to explain that Labour's catastrophic defeat in the heartland seat of Copeland was disappointing, even a tremendous achievement, and that Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn was not to blame. Oh no, if anyone was guilty it was Tony Blair. You may remember him as the Prime Minister who left office ten years ago.
The scale of Labour's humiliation in Copeland cannot be understated. It was Labour for eight decades and was taken on a 7% swing by the governing party. This is as rare as hen's teeth. Yes, there were specific local reasons for the defeat. The constituency enjoys above average wages because of thousands of quality jobs in its nuclear industry. Local Labour Party members are said to glow in the dark but many voters eyed Corbyn suspiciously because of his long opposition to nuclear power and were utterly unconvinced by his late conversion to supporting it. Labour circulated leaflets saying babies would die if a maternity unit were closed. That the party of the NHS failed so abysmally shows that this sort of propaganda cuts no mustard.
And Labour MPs stress that people raised the issue of Corbyn's leadership with them on the doorstep. He may be an affable politician but few party members let alone voters see him as a potential Prime Minister.
Corbyn's supporters argue that Labour's victory in the other by-election in Stoke - which voted most heavily for Brexit - was a triumph and should be weighed in the balance. Labour did well in stopping the leader of the UK Independence Party from winning their third seat and may have stopped their post-Brexit momentum. But that was also because the UKIP candidate suffered a massive meltdown over false autobiographical claims and also because the Conservatives managed to retrieve voters from UKIP.
But we should be fair to Corbyn. He is a symptom, maybe a morbid symptom, of a longer decline in Labour's vote that, like centre-left formations around the world, has been shredded by deindustrialisation in favour of more precarious employment, less union power and lower wages for many, and a continuing drift in the definition of the aims of social democracy especially in times of austerity. Those taken for granted and left behind have choices.
Add Brexit and you have a perfect storm. Even if Labour had a charming and coherent leader, it would face an electoral mountain. That it is lumbered with a man who does not seem to have rethought his sometimes toxic politics since the 1970s makes it worse.
Furthermore, the last attempt at regicide failed just five months ago and Corbyn increased his party majority. There is currently no credible centrist challenger who can dislodge him and it is commonly agreed that any challenge will require a part of Corbyn's base or the unions to endorse a left-leaning candidate.
Any successor would find it difficult to navigate the rocky waters left behind by Brexit which has put Labour voters on different islands - more metropolitan voters who favour immigration and northern voters who see it as a threat. It is possible that Brexit is the anvil that smashes the old Labour alliance altogether.
And what exacerbates this existential crisis for Labour is that the Conservatives have so far been able, out of the ruins of the self-inflicted conundrums of Brexit and with an unelected leader and Prime Minister, to make themselves fit for purpose and attract more working class voters than Labour.
Theresa May's spectacular victory in Copeland and good showing in Stoke means, if it were replicated at an election, she would massively increase her majority and mandate. She has ruled out an early election so far but some Conservative MPs wish she went for broke while others want to give time to Corbyn to make Labour's recovery either impossible or very long-term.
Labour is "sliding towards irrelevance," according to a senior union leader who has so far backed Corbyn. As I keep mentioning, this is bad for good governance given that a strong Opposition keeps ministers on their toes and helps prevent their ministers acquiring a bunker mentality. A good opposition can bring ministers down if and when they go too far. One hope for Labour is if May and her ministers see an open road, accelerate and hit the buffers. Even then it would be difficult for Labour to win before 2025 or 2030. Of course, Conservatives should not count their chickens before they hatch or they may come home to roost.
Gary Kent is the director of All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.