Countdown to Chilcot and Tony Blair
Tony Blair attended a high-profile discussion organised by the Prospect magazine last week in Westminster. He avoided specific comments on the Chilcot report on the 2003 invasion of Iraq but offered some general thoughts.
He candidly admitted that "we underestimated profoundly the forces that were at work in the region and would take advantage of change once you topple the regime...The lesson is not complicated. The lesson is simple. It is that when you remove a dictatorship out come these forces of destabilisation whether it is al-Qaida on the Sunni side or Iran on the Shia side.”
Critics will focus on his admission that "my understanding of the Middle East is a lot deeper today than it was when I was prime minister, quite frankly” - that goes for many - and he regretted how Saddam Hussein was removed. He also argued that the Maliki government's alienation of the Sunnis had given traction to Daesh but jihadist roots go back decades. He diplomatically sidestepped the Obama administration's premature withdrawal of troops from Iraq when a small military force could have limited Maliki's sectarian turn.
Blair starkly concluded that the West has “not yet taken on board that there is no way of defeating these people without defeating them on the ground. Airstrikes are not going to defeat Isis. It does not mean it has to be our forces all the time – it could be that our forces are in support. But be in no doubt, if you want to defeat these people you are going to have to wage a proper ground war against them. The only question for us is whether we are prepared to.”
He compared the generational struggle with the long Cold War when people couldn't credibly say they were fed up and wanted to give up. Blair emphasised the importance of allies in the Middle East who are trying to make Islam and democracy coexist, as they surely can. In response to Kurdistani MP, Hayat Muhamad, he praised the Peshmerga's "extraordinary job" in fighting Daesh. While he understood the strength of feeling for Kurdistani statehood, he also cautioned great sensitivity and care, especially with countries with large Kurdish populations, and that stabilising the Middle East should precede discussion on new borders.
There is growing understanding of and support for Kurdistani independence but, as it looms larger, there will be more such caution.
The best way to achieve independence is not asking the West to advocate it but by creating a credible reality based on sustainable economics and negotiations with the neighbours, which makes it much easier for the West to back independence. Blair's backing for what he called "rule-based economics and religious pluralism" are essential ingredients of the reform process in Kurdistan.
His former political secretary, John McTernan, rightly commends Blair's wide-ranging observations as "a direct answer and a cold eye on his own record. But rich context. A sense of real, complex choices." But many Brits cannot stand Blair and that hatred has been magnified on Twitter, which allows people, as Blair put it, to rattle the cage and ride the anger, often without proposing realistic solutions. That's the way it goes but the issues facing the Kurds and the West are no less urgent for it. And Blair is right to promote his seasoned analysis.
Back in the Commons, the government reported on its contribution to fighting Daesh during which two MPs who have visited Kurdistan raised the issue of the long-delayed supplies of ammunition for the heavy machine guns gifted to the Peshmerga in 2014.
Defence Secretary Michael Fallon told Conservative MP Jason McCartney he hoped the ammunition will be with the Peshmerga in the next few weeks. Fallon told Labour MP Mike Gapes, who asked why it is taking so long, the Peshmerga can access ammunition elsewhere, have the funds to do so, but supplies must be routed via Baghdad and a new shipment will be going out there shortly.
And Labour's Mary Glindon, who also hosted a packed meeting last week in the Commons on human and women's' rights in Kurdistan, tabled a cross-party Commons motion urging America to review and eventually repeal a new measure that forces those who have travelled to Kurdistan to apply for visas to visit America. Her motion fears that the rule could discourage people from choosing to visit Kurdistan for mutually beneficial commercial and cultural activities if they think it is harder to then visit America - an unfortunate own goal.
His former political secretary, John McTernan, rightly commends Blair's wide-ranging observations as "a direct answer and a cold eye on his own record. But rich context. A sense of real, complex choices." But many Brits cannot stand Blair and that hatred has been magnified on Twitter, which allows people, as Blair put it, to rattle the cage and ride the anger, often without proposing realistic solutions. That's the way it goes but the issues facing the Kurds and the West are no less urgent for it. And Blair is right to promote his seasoned analysis.
Back in the Commons, the government reported on its contribution to fighting Daesh during which two MPs who have visited Kurdistan raised the issue of the long-delayed supplies of ammunition for the heavy machine guns gifted to the Peshmerga in 2014.
Defence Secretary Michael Fallon told Conservative MP Jason McCartney he hoped the ammunition will be with the Peshmerga in the next few weeks. Fallon told Labour MP Mike Gapes, who asked why it is taking so long, the Peshmerga can access ammunition elsewhere, have the funds to do so, but supplies must be routed via Baghdad and a new shipment will be going out there shortly.
And Labour's Mary Glindon, who also hosted a packed meeting last week in the Commons on human and women's' rights in Kurdistan, tabled a cross-party Commons motion urging America to review and eventually repeal a new measure that forces those who have travelled to Kurdistan to apply for visas to visit America. Her motion fears that the rule could discourage people from choosing to visit Kurdistan for mutually beneficial commercial and cultural activities if they think it is harder to then visit America - an unfortunate own goal.
But such issues may soon be eclipsed by the debate on Chilcot. Let's just get it over and done with so we can focus properly on defeating the fascism of Daesh.
Gary Kent is the director of All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.