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Rudaw

Analysis

Why ISIS would love to stir up trouble in Iran's Khuzestan Province

By Paul Iddon 23/11/2015
Iranian pilgrims passing through the Shalamcheh border crossing at Khuzestan province into Iraq. Photo: IRNA
Iranian pilgrims passing through the Shalamcheh border crossing at Khuzestan province into Iraq. Photo: IRNA
 

Iran recently announced it had broken up terror cells relating to the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist network. It's no surprise ISIS is attempting to get a foothold in Iran and would doubtlessly carry out terrorist attacks across that country if it could. Iran is a Shia-majority Islamic country. ISIS constantly tries to promote itself as the only true representatives of pure Sunni Islam. The groups pathological hatred for the Shia was evidenced by their mass slaughter of approximately 1,700 unarmed Shia Iraqi cadets they had taken prisoner in Camp Speicher, Tikrit in the summer of 2014.

Such a group would love to destabilize Iran's Arab-majority Khuzestan Province and disjoin it from Tehran and use it as a launchpad from which to launch terrorist attack other targets across Iran if it could.

Many of Iran's minorities live in border regions. The prospect of Azeri, Kurdish and Sunni Arab — not to mention the, predominantly Sunni, Baloch people in southeast Iran — separatism is something many Iranians are sensitive about. They remember the aftermath of the Second World War when the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin briefly, and successfully, sponsored separatist movements in Iranian Azerbaijan and Kurdistan (the short-lived Mahabad Republic). More recently they remember Saddam Hussein's attempt to annex Iran's western Arab majority province of Khuzestan in 1980 and the bloody eight-year long war which followed. More recently again, the 1990's, Iran backed the Christian nation of Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan which laid claim to Iran's Azeri region.

ISIS can be very calculating, even Machiavellian, when it comes to exposing sectarian tensions in areas they seek to conquer. In Iraq especially they shrewdly exploited the political tumult and upheavals in the Sunni-majority parts of the country and their distrust of the central government under then Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Cunningly and masterfully exploiting these fissures in the society ISIS then moved in and violently consolidated its control and dominance. In Anbar in particular they have ruthlessly slaughtered any Sunni tribesmen who might pose a threat to them, most infamously the Albu Nimr tribesmen who were too ill-armed and ill-prepared to mount any resistance to their takeover.

When Saddam sent his army into Khuzestan in September 1980 he also sought to exploit ethno-sectarian tensions in Iran to undermine the fledgling regime of Ayatollah Khomeini in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution. Referring to the region as “Arabistan” he claimed he was liberating the Arabs there from an oppressive Persian regime. However shortly after the tanks rolled in his army was executing local Sunni Arabs who attempted to resist the invasion.

Despite the fact the Arabs of Khuzestan fought bravely in defense of Iran against the Iraqi invader they have felt neglected in the years since. Their outlying province, like Iranian Kurdistan, remained underdeveloped long after the cessation of hostilities. And there has always been the potential that a demonstration could get violent and quickly escalate into something much bigger. Something Tehran is doubtlessly wary of given the aforementioned history. 

Like Saddam before them there is the eternal potential that, as long as it remains in existence, ISIS will seek to either stir-up sedition or exploit internal upheavals against Tehran in Khuzestan and then try to subjugate that province like they did Anbar. Or stir-up violence or an uprising in hopes it could spark a regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia — a local uprising could have the regime come in to crush them and they would in turn call on the Saudis and the other Sunni Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf to intervene to support them either directly or indirectly.

In Mali a splinter group of the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) terrorist group similarly exploited an ethnic upheaval in order to seize territory. In 2012 Tuareg nationalists revolted against the central government seeking independence or at least some form of autonomy. AQIM moved in and hijacked that uprising successfully seizing two-thirds of Mali for themselves, which they held onto until the French came in and helped the central government kick them out of the major cities and towns.

How AQIM exploited those internal divides uncannily resembles how ISIS came to dominate Anbar amidst similar instability and widespread opposition to the central government there. Doubtlessly the group has at least tried to organize some cell in Iran to do the same in Khuzestan if there are more disturbances there or if tensions between Sunni Arab elements and the regime in Tehran devolved into destabilizing clashes. Protests in Iran's nearby Kurdish region earlier this year, along with armed attacks mounted by an Arab separatist group on police in Khuzestan, attest to just how volatile those areas can be and how ripe for exploitation by ISIS they could potentially become.

While such a transpiration is rendered less likely than it would have been in recent months the finding of these cells is an important reminder of the reach of this group and their ambition and why it's crucial that neither them, their reach nor their ability to exploit chaos and disorder to their advantage is ever underestimated.

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and political writer who writes on Middle East affairs, politics, developments and history.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.

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Brzoo Kurdi
Brzoo Kurdi | 23/11/2015
It is not possible to think about Isis , without some kind of anger towards Mr Obama s decisions to withdrew the entire US army from Iraq, if that historical mistake was not made by Obama , it was not possible at all for Isis to grew so rapidly , all this noise we hear about Isis , all this fear they spread around the world , caused by that historical mistake to withdrew the entire Army , Obama was about to make the same mistake in Afghanistan , as you know he was stopped by his advisers...if Isis shows ,that they are powerful , it is only because we have a weak president in the whit house , otherwise we all know the leaders of Isis used to be brothel owners in Baghdad.In 10 or 20 years from now , some wise historian will show us that Obama was the worst president that the great America has ever seen.
Brzoo Kurdi
Brzoo Kurdi | 23/11/2015
Can you imagine the world , the way it is , if we had some one like junior Bush or Dick Cheney, in power, in the White house? no one outside lunatic asylum would say, yes.
Jamal | 23/11/2015
ISIS didnt fire a bullet at Iran by now...But If Iran want to hunt her Sunnis minorites he may use ISIS as excuse or fix up some ISIS terror cells in the Sunni regions...
kurt basar | 23/11/2015
Because majority of the people in Khuzestan are Arab origin, and Iran will be next & divided to the 5 federal state soon or later same as the former yugoslavia (the Khuzestan, Baluchistan, Azerbaycan, Luristan, etc) after affairs of the Syria & Iraq are settled. because of the behavior of current regime of the Iran & new world order, which must create a new markets for their mega corporations.
Kird | 23/11/2015
khuzestan is 80% ethnically Persian, including lur and bakhtiari persians. Arabs are only majority in ahvas by a small ammount, hence why the seperatist movement is called al ahvaz and not al khuzestan. Furthermore, the arabs in khuzestan are pretty Persianized and most tribals speak persian as their main language.
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