Analysis
Turkish people gather to celebrate after the Istanbul mayoral election re-run, June 23, 2019. Photo: Bulent Kilic / AFP
Many expected the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem Imamoglu to win Sunday’s repeat mayoral election in Istanbul, but few expected his vote advantage over his Justice and Development Party (AKP) rival to rise from 14,000 to 800,000.
The election has thrust Imamoglu into the limelight. He is already tipped as a possible challenger for the next Turkish presidential election – giving AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cause for concern.
There is a saying in Turkey: “Anyone who wins Istanbul wins the whole of Turkey.” The result is a promising sign for the CHP following decades in opposition.
A third of Turkey’s economic activity is based in Istanbul and nearly sixth of voters reside in the province, which is represented by 98 lawmakers in parliament. Istanbul is very important for any party that intends to rule Turkey.
What do the results tell us?
Although this was a local election, it had the look and feel of a national vote. Erdogan tried his hardest to secure city hall for AKP candidate and former prime minister Binali Yildirim, but all in vain.
Although the AKP controls 24 municipalities, in addition to the one won by its allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), giving it a strong hand in provincial affairs, Sunday’s result still marks the party’s biggest defeat in years.
Had these municipalities also been included in the election re-run, the AKP would only have won 11, based proportionally on preliminary results.
Imamoglu and the CHP’s share of the vote increased by an average of 5.59 percent – in some areas by as much as 10 percent. Meanwhile, the AKP’s vote fell by an average of 3.80 percent.
The CHP and AKP both tried to court Istanbul’s Kurdish voters – a million-strong community. However, it was not just the Kurds who appear to have spurned the AKP. Imamoglu even increased his share of the vote in nationalist areas like Silivri and Catalca.
The AKP has been hemorrhaging support since 2015. Dissident voices within the party are now likely to grow louder.
After the March 31 election, some claimed the AKP-MHP alliance had mostly benefited the MHP. The alliance could again come into question.
What about the Kurds?
Kurdish votes played a role in Imamoglu’s victory, with the CHP’s vote up in Kurdish-populated areas. One Kurdish leader who will not be impressed with the outcome, however, in Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Ocalan was recently given the chance to communicate his views with the outside world for the first time in eight years.
Following meetings with his lawyers, he succeeded in ending the recent wave of hunger strikes. However, his call for “neutrality” in the Istanbul election was rejected by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which endorsed a vote for the CHP.
Although the result shows the AKP and CHP must pay more attention to Kurdish issues, it could also be the first act in a period of inter-Kurdish conflict.
The AKP remains Turkey’s biggest party and has plenty of opportunity to turn around its fortunes. It is therefore not under particularly strong pressure to resolve the Kurdish question in the short term.
Turkey’s relations with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will also remain tied to the AKP for the time being. For now, Kurds are likely to maintain a balanced policy with both political sides in Turkey.
By Zryan Rojhalati
The election has thrust Imamoglu into the limelight. He is already tipped as a possible challenger for the next Turkish presidential election – giving AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cause for concern.
There is a saying in Turkey: “Anyone who wins Istanbul wins the whole of Turkey.” The result is a promising sign for the CHP following decades in opposition.
A third of Turkey’s economic activity is based in Istanbul and nearly sixth of voters reside in the province, which is represented by 98 lawmakers in parliament. Istanbul is very important for any party that intends to rule Turkey.
What do the results tell us?
Although this was a local election, it had the look and feel of a national vote. Erdogan tried his hardest to secure city hall for AKP candidate and former prime minister Binali Yildirim, but all in vain.
Although the AKP controls 24 municipalities, in addition to the one won by its allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), giving it a strong hand in provincial affairs, Sunday’s result still marks the party’s biggest defeat in years.
Had these municipalities also been included in the election re-run, the AKP would only have won 11, based proportionally on preliminary results.
Imamoglu and the CHP’s share of the vote increased by an average of 5.59 percent – in some areas by as much as 10 percent. Meanwhile, the AKP’s vote fell by an average of 3.80 percent.
The CHP and AKP both tried to court Istanbul’s Kurdish voters – a million-strong community. However, it was not just the Kurds who appear to have spurned the AKP. Imamoglu even increased his share of the vote in nationalist areas like Silivri and Catalca.
The AKP has been hemorrhaging support since 2015. Dissident voices within the party are now likely to grow louder.
After the March 31 election, some claimed the AKP-MHP alliance had mostly benefited the MHP. The alliance could again come into question.
What about the Kurds?
Kurdish votes played a role in Imamoglu’s victory, with the CHP’s vote up in Kurdish-populated areas. One Kurdish leader who will not be impressed with the outcome, however, in Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Ocalan was recently given the chance to communicate his views with the outside world for the first time in eight years.
Following meetings with his lawyers, he succeeded in ending the recent wave of hunger strikes. However, his call for “neutrality” in the Istanbul election was rejected by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which endorsed a vote for the CHP.
Although the result shows the AKP and CHP must pay more attention to Kurdish issues, it could also be the first act in a period of inter-Kurdish conflict.
The AKP remains Turkey’s biggest party and has plenty of opportunity to turn around its fortunes. It is therefore not under particularly strong pressure to resolve the Kurdish question in the short term.
Turkey’s relations with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will also remain tied to the AKP for the time being. For now, Kurds are likely to maintain a balanced policy with both political sides in Turkey.
By Zryan Rojhalati
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