ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Husham al-Hashmi, an Iraqi expert in terrorist and extremist groups, believes Islamic State (ISIS) leader Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi’s whereabouts can likely be narrowed down to just four locations following his first video appearance in almost five years.
“Iraq since September 2018 through a special cell formed with US Special Operations Command has been monitoring, looking for al-Baghdadi. They have up to now succeeded in eliminating 13 out of 17 possible locations,” Hashmi told Rudaw English on Wednesday.
The possible locations are the deserts of Iraq’s western Anbar, Iraq’s Wadi Houran — a riverbed in Anbar — or in Syria’s mid-east Homs desert. Baghdadi could also be heading elsewhere — toward the so-called “Mohammed Peninsula”, a term found in Islamic discourse referring to the Saudi peninsula.
On Monday, Baghdadi appeared in a new video that was widely circulated across Islamist propaganda outlets. It was only his second confirmed appearance since 2014 when he released video proclaiming the ISIS caliphate from Mosul.
Baghdadi, surrounded by his lieutenants, remained defiant, emphasizing the group’s struggle continues and that they haven’t lost. He focused on a war of attrition and hit-and-run insurgency, implicitly admitting ISIS can no longer hold territory.
The group’s last bastion of Baghouz, eastern Syria, was liberated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on March 23. A large number of the ISIS fighters and their families surrendered. Many detained ISIS wives remain committed to the group’s ideology.
Nevertheless, many fighters had long been disillusioned with their absent leader, deserting and accusing Baghdadi of betraying the cause.
“Baghdadi tried to relieve the anger and pain that members of the organization suffered from in Baghouz by talking about the latest operations in Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia, which he dubbed ‘revenge operations’,” Hashimi argued.
The security expert believes Baghdadi’s words will embolden ISIS loyalists.
“Yes. The appearance of Baghdadi will give a charge of hope to supports, intensify their response to him, foil the widening of schisms and rebellion, and decrease the blaming and dissatisfaction of followers for his long absence. It also nullifies rumors of him going far away from the Iraqi and Syrian geography,” argued Hashimi.
As of now, the only Iraqi official to react publicly is Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi. Speaking at a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the premier admitted ISIS hasn’t been fully defeated.
“We agree with the viewpoint that Daesh hasn’t been totally defeated, but it has received big crippling blows,” the PM said from Berlin on Tuesday, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS.
Abdul-Mahdi’s predecessor, Haider al-Abadi, declared ISIS defeated in December 2017.
“Now, Baghdadi appears in an isolated, unknown location. It doesn’t show where he is, and it doesn’t show that he is among supporters like he appeared for the first time in Mosul. This is proof to what we say, 'A big defeat was dealt to Daesh',” the premier claimed.
ISIS will now try to reorganize and commit further actions similar to Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka, argued Abdul-Mahdi.
“However, there is a clear regression. … Daesh capabilities and resources have greatly regressed. We are very proud of this achievement,” he added.
Despite the lack of direct information concerning Baghdadi’s location, Iraq will continue to fight extremists, he said.
“This doesn’t change the evaluations that we have settled on. This is proof that we should continue our unity and cooperation to eradicate Daesh,” Abdul-Mahdi said.
ISIS is leading clandestine operations, and it is regrouping, especially in the no man’s land areas between Iraqi army and Peshmerga forces. The group is especially brazen in Makhmour, where it treks through villages and meets locals when they collect truffles.
They have also resumed assassination and kidnapping operations, mainly targeting village mukhtars and security personnel.
Colin P. Clarke, an associate political scientist at RAND and writer of “After the Caliphate”, wrote a piece published in Foreign Policy on Tuesday arguing the aim of the video is “rallying” supporters and “edging” ISIS militants towards action, including lone-wolf terrorist attacks.
Baghdadi is showing that he is alive, but he also insists on the continuation of jihad and the global reach of his organization, from Africa to Asia, Clarke argued. However, Baghdadi lacks the long-term strategic vision for his group, claimed Clarke.
“Indeed, Baghdadi may simply be akin to other CEOs, busy with the day-to-day details of managing the organization but lacking a more comprehensive and strategic vision for how to adapt to a changing landscape,” argued Clarke.
In the video, Baghdadi makes little or no mention of Iraq and Syria, large swaths of territory his group had controlled at their peak in late 2014.
The US Department of State is offering $25 million for information that leads to the arrest or conviction of Baghdadi through its Rewards for Justice Program.
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