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My hunch about David Cameron's diminished political credibility has proved correct in opinion polls. As has the notion that Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn must play a bigger role in motivating Labour supporters to vote to remain in the European Union.
What could go wrong with that? Corbyn is a decent man who is adored by many party members and liked moderately by voters who see him as down to earth, authentic and honest. I suspect many voters think he is likeable but are wary of him on economic and security issues, and don't rate his leadership abilities.
Like many, I didn't see his victory coming last year. He was the latest candidate seeking to advance a left platform and few expected a massive win. To paraphrase Michael Caine in The Italian Job film, he was only supposed to blow the bloody doors off, not get into the driving seat.
The shock of his winning was evident from the start. On his first day staff gave him a diary of engagements to which he replied it was a lot to do in a week. They retorted it was the diary for that day. I congratulated him on his election and he gave a sweet smile indicating that he still couldn't believe it either.
Corbyn had long been a big fish in a small and sometimes stagnant leftist pond. Now he is a small fish in an ocean. He carries much baggage from decades in the wilderness as a serial rebel against successive Labour Leaders and official policies. An interesting profile by Pete Wilby in the New Statesman of his spin doctor, Seumas Milne, a controversial former Guardian columnist and executive, says Milne "is a child of the 1970s, the last decade in which large numbers of people believed that the near future belonged to socialism." Much the same can be said of Corbyn, although he is a little older.
Anti-Europe sentiment was common on the left in the 1970s and as recently as the election campaign last year Corbyn was deeply eurosceptic at the very least. He has made it clear that he accepts the majority case in the Labour Party for the EU.
But with Cameron holed beneath the water line for now, the argument for staying in the EU relies heavily on Corbyn. He has finally delivered a long awaited and a high-profile speech on staying in the EU. In that speech, Corbyn remains critical of the shortcomings of the EU but concludes that "The Labour Party is overwhelmingly for staying in because we believe the European Union has brought: investment, jobs and protection for workers, consumers and the environment, and offers the best chance of meeting the challenges we face in the 21st century. Labour is convinced that a vote to remain is in the best interests of the people of this country." He says "the case I’m making is for ‘Remain - and Reform’ in Europe."
Erstwhile comrades will undoubtedly denounce him and EU enthusiasts will wonder if the case he makes is full-throated enough. My new hunch is that this case will not reach Labour voters who, like most people, don't read the runes but pick up the general tone of a message. My guess is they will not be motivated as much as they would be if Corbyn could argue as eloquently as the Labour Leader we never had, David Miliband.
The former Foreign Secretary, who was beaten by his brother as the Labour Leader in 2010 and now runs the International Rescue Committee from New York, said "This is no time for Britain to join the ranks of arsonists, and there should be no doubt that Brexit would be an act of arson on the worldwide order". He added that "My message is simple: Now is not the time for unilateral political disarmament."
The pressures on the EU are massive and it may not survive in its current form in any case. Brexit would make sure of that and part of my own case for staying is that if fundamental change is coming then it is best that Britain is inside the tent rather than outside.
But Corbyn must be Corbyn and cannot pretend otherwise. The question is whether that will do the trick in ensuring that Britain stays in the EU. Some fear that British membership of the EU hangs in the balance though old hands think that inertia and the fear of something worse will keep the UK in the EU. If that is wrong, all hell will let loose. Cameron will certainly be toast and Corbyn would also feel the heat.
Gary Kent is the director of All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
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