Kurdistan independence referendum: one year on

25-09-2018
Karwan Faidhi Dri
Karwan Faidhi Dri @KarwanFaidhiDri
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Tags: Iraq independence referendum Masoud Barzani Haider al-Abadi Rex Tillerson
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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in late August 2016 his government would not act against a referendum on Kurdish independence and even said he considered self-determination for the Kurds an “undisputed right.” Just over a year later he went back on these words, taking swift punitive measures against the Kurds for holding just such a referendum.

Masoud Barzani, former president of the Kurdistan Region, had warned successive Iraqi governments he would declare independence if the Iraqi constitution was not implemented and Kurdish rights left neglected. Baghdad did not take his words seriously.

In an interview with the BBC in July 2014, Barzani said “We’ll hold a referendum, and it’s a matter of months” amid factious relations with the government of Nouri al-Maliki. With the outbreak of war with ISIS, the dream was deferred.

One year later, an unofficial referendum was held alongside Iraqi and Kurdish elections. The result showed 98.98 percent support for independence in the Kurdistan Region and disputed areas.

By 2017, the Region controlled almost all the territory it considered ‘South of the Greater Kurdistan’. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said it required a mandate for talks with Baghdad to discuss the rights of Kurds. It therefore decided to hold a referendum on September 25, 2017.

The ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led the charge, while its ally, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), was more reluctant, disputing the timeline. 

Gorran and Komal were also against the timeline, but did not oppose the referendum, while the Kurdistan Islamic Union gave its full support. Only the newly-established New Generation, headed by businessman-turned-politician Shaswar Abdul Rahman, opposed the move, launching the “No for Now” campaign.

Baghdad opposed the referendum, as did neighboring Turkey and Iran, who feared it could provoke a similar move among their own Kurdish populations. European states and the US neither endorsed nor opposed the separation referendum, but called for a postponement. 

Kurds, meanwhile, were tired of being told to wait.

Two days before Kurds went to the polls, then-US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson sent a letter to President Barzani offering an alternative. 

“We respectfully request that you accept an alternative, which we believe will better help achieve your objectives and ensure stability and peace in the wake of this necessary war against ISIS,” Tillerson said.

Calling it a “rare opportunity,” Tillerson recommended dialogue with Baghdad to reach “an understanding”.

“Should the talks not reach a mutually acceptable conclusion or fail on account of lack of good faith on the part of Baghdad, we recognize the need for a referendum.”

Kurdish leaders rejected the plan, as it lacked guarantees. The letter was only made public weeks after the referendum.

With a mixture of euphoria and uncertainty, some 92.71 percent of Kurds voted in favor of independence. The result was met with celebration across the Region – but their joy was short lived. 

The Iraqi government quickly took punitive measures – even though independence had not been declared – including an international flight ban, the closure of border crossings, and the punishing of referendum supporters in the disputed areas.

The Iraqi Army and Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitias attacked oil-rich Kirkuk and other disputed areas, forcing Peshmerga to withdraw after some units of the PUK Peshmerga allegedly refused to fight. The Region lost around half the territory in controlled. The PUK was accused of coordinating with the Iraqi government to hand over Kirkuk. The party denies the claim.

It came as a blow to the Kurdish enclave, which was on the verge of losing the strategic Suhela region which connects Iraq, Turkey, and Syria. The Kurdistan Region’s pipeline to the port of Ceyhan passes through this area. Peshmerga forces were able to halt the advancing Iraqi forces.

The KRG offered to freeze the result of the referendum as a gesture of “good will” and to resume talks with Baghdad, but the Iraqi government called for total dissolution.

Masoud Barzani refused an extension of his tenure as president of the Kurdistan Region when it expired in November 2017. The parliament distributed presidential powers across the government, judiciary, and legislature, and suspended the office of the presidency.

The region went through hardship and an international embargo until Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani was received by French President Emmanuel Macron and several other world leaders. Erbil-Baghdad relations have since slowly improved. 

In the wake of Iraq’s May 12 election, Abadi and other Iraqi leaders are now actively seeking Kurdish support to form the next Iraqi government. This appeal to Kurdish-Iraqi partnership has given the Region the means to bargain for its rights. 

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