Iraq has taken a step toward sovereignty by naming Mustafa Kadhimi its prime minister designate. A secular Iraqi nationalist and former director of intelligence, he now faces a rare moment in Iraqi politics – widespread support across the ethnic spectrum.
President Barham Salih has now tasked Kadhimi with forming a government in a bid to end months of political deadlock and unrest. The announcement last week came after larger parliamentary groups failed to support former prime ministers-designate Zurfi and Allawi followed in the failed footsteps of Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned in November in response to mass demonstrations demanding better economic conditions and an end to the country’s sectarian-based political system. Another demand of the youth-led protest movement is the expulsion of Iranian special interests in Iraq. Activists – including many in the Shiite-dominated south – accuse Tehran of complicity in Iraq’s governance failure and corruption. Transparency International, an index on corruption around the globe, ranks Iraq as one of the most crooked countries in the world, with a weak capacity to absorb aid money and little political will to fight corruption.
Iran, with a population that is a majority Shiite, emerged as a major power broker in Iraq after the 2003 US invasion, backing the Shiite Islamist parties and militias that have controlled the country ever since. One of the reasons for this is because the US failed to consider the consequences of giving Iraq a democratic political system: there are far more Shiite Muslims than Sunni Muslims in the country, so democracy brought to power a Shiite government that quickly aligned itself with Tehran – rejecting Washington and many Arab states in the process.
Iraq is important to Iran for several reasons: its banking system is a conduit for Iran to obtain hard US currency, and the country provides a vital logistical gateway for Iran to supply goods and weapons to Syria and Lebanon. Tehran also sees Iraq’s location and its valuable oil reserves – worth $65 billion in 2018 – as both economically and militarily significant as Iran seeks to expand across the Middle East and entrench itself on the Mediterranean Sea.
Many political elites in Iraq have favored the relationship with Iran, pocketing bribes and turning a blind eye to the suffering that relationship brought to their compatriots. However, warming up to Tehran has had its share of consequences. It has strained Iraq’s oil industry, because of the international sanctions on Iran. It’s boosted poverty levels in Iraq. It’s also undercut Iraqi farmers, as cheaper Iranian fruits and vegetables flood into Iraqi markets and deprive them of their livelihoods. More significantly, it has stolen self-determination from Iraqis, as political decisions taken in consultation with Tehran are not always in the best interest of Iraq.
The Islamic Republic employs a vast web of influence in Iraq, according to an investigation by journalists at The Intercept and the New York that revealed 700 pages of leaked Iranian intelligence reports and cables. The documents detail “years of painstaking work by Iranian spies to co-opt the country’s leaders, pay Iraqi agents working for the Americans to switch sides, and infiltrate every aspect of Iraq’s political, economic and religious life.”
The leaked cables reveal just how extensively Iraq has fallen under Iranian influence since the American invasion in 2003, which transformed Iraq into a gateway for Iranian power, connecting the Islamic Republic’s geography of dominance from the shores of the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
A politics of musical chairs, where Iran handpicks Iraq’s prime minister and helps build a Shiite base around him, may be coming to an end if Kadhimi manages to form a government within the 30-day deadline and then survives a confidence vote in Iraq’s deeply divided parliament.
Yet, in a departure from his predecessors, Kadhimi may actually stand a chance at forming a new governing coalition, as the Kurds, Sunnis and the powerful Shiite blocs all support his nomination – an extremely rare consensus in a country that is perennially held back by sectarian quarreling.
Pro-Iranian groups in Iraq including the powerful Fatah parliamentary alliance support Kadhimi. If this support translates to political influence or even control, all of Kadhimi’s work to bridge domestic divides and unite his country will be undone. Fatah accused President Salih, a Kurd, of “disregarding” the constitution by naming Zurfi in the absence of political consensus. Other Iran-backed parties may also begin to support Kadhimi like the Sadiqoun party, the political wing of an armed Iraqi group that has close ties to Iran that is labeled a terrorist organization by the US. For context, these Iran-backed militias in Iraq have often acted at the request of Iran to repress Iraqi’s internal protests, killing and maiming protestors in the process.
Signs of direct support from Tehran for Kadhimi’s government are worrying for Iraq’s staggering sovereignty movement. That said, if Kadhimi can adequately gather and harness the support of his country’s Shiite blocs while fending off Iranian influence, he stands a good chance at securing Iraq’s borders and pursuing full sovereignty for his country. As pro-sovereignty movements like the National Wisdom Council, Mosul’s Nujaifi Brothers, or the National Independent Iraqi Front gain support and organize under the Sovereignty Alliance for Iraq, Kadhimi offers a rare opportunity to Iraqis. If he can work with these movements to bridge sectarian divides and free the country from Iran’s hold, he might just succeed in bringing Iraq together. He must not, however, allow Iran to continue to call the shots.
Kadhimi’s first priority should be to seek to listen to protesters and pro-sovereignty movements, and follow through on his predecessor’ pledges for free and untainted parliamentary elections within a year of forming his cabinet – a key demand of demonstrators. To win their trust, the former intelligence chief must now also vow to protect protesters, prosecute anyone targeting them, and respond sincerely to their justified demands over government graft and inefficiency. If he does, the Iraqi street will finally have a leader they can thank for faithfully carrying out their aspirations.
Saad Khoury is a London-based Middle East economic and political specialist with a focus on sectarian strife, regional political strategy, and the Arab technology sector.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
