ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The United Nations should use the current period of calm to explore ways to push forward negotiations between Erbil and Baghdad and resolve the issue of Kirkuk and the disputed territories, a Brussels-based monitor has said.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report on Friday urging the UN to examine opportunities to resolve the dispute over those areas claimed by both the federal and Kurdistan regional governments to prevent a repeat of the October 2017 violence.
“The UN should revive its stillborn mediation effort of a decade ago and work with regional and international partners to bring the two sides to the table and settle the issues dividing them,” the ICG report states. “In particular, it should work to reach a permanent deal on the disputed territories.”
ICG says the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) – which conducted a study on the disputed areas in 2008-2009 – is best placed to help find a settlement which falls in line with the Iraqi constitution.
“Indeed, in its study on the disputed territories UNAMI discovered that many people in these areas would prefer an ‘in-between’ status for these districts that would preserve their diversity and intercommunal harmony.”
“This would require a series of local power-sharing and joint security arrangements, as well as an overall revenue-sharing deal between the federal government and the KRG,” it added.
Kirkuk and the disputed territories have a special status under the Iraqi constitution drafted after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Article 140 stipulates the dispute should be resolved in a referendum to determine whether these areas should remain part of federal Iraq or be absorbed by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region.
Successive governments in Baghdad failed to hold such a referendum, fearing the loss of Kirkuk would make an independent Kurdistan economically viable and lead to the breakup of Iraq. However, by neglecting the issue, Baghdad bolstered calls for Kurdish independence, leading to the September 2017 referendum.
“Regardless of the Kurdish Region’s final political status, given its designation in the Iraqi constitution as a federal region it must have an agreed-upon internal boundary with the rest of Iraq. As long as Baghdad and Erbil can find a formula for sharing Iraq’s oil revenues, including those deriving from Kirkuk, that boundary’s location becomes less politically sensitive,” the ICR said.
When ISIS militants swept across northern Iraq in 2014, conquering several towns and cities, Iraqi forces withdrew from Kirkuk, leaving the city undefended. The Peshmerga came to its defense, holding the province and its oilfields until October 2017.
On October 16, in response to the Kurdistan independence referendum, the Iraqi Army and Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitias marched into Kirkuk and took over several of the disputed territories. Baghdad did this with the support of Iran, Turkey, European states, and the US, which had warned Erbil not to hold its referendum.
The Peshmerga clashed with Iraqi forces on several fronts, but prevented them from entering the Kurdistan Region itself. The events of October 16 are nevertheless widely seen by Kurds has a humiliating setback on the road to independence.
After the Iraqi takeover, Kurdish officials in Kirkuk were removed from office and Kurdish farmers either prevented from cultivating their land or driven away by Arab settlers. The feared resumption of government-sanctioned Arabization has done nothing to ease hostility.
The security gaps and instability caused by the takeover have also allowed ISIS remnants to regroup and resume a low scale insurgency.
Tensions between Erbil and Baghdad have receded somewhat over the past year, with Kurdish and Iraqi leaders meeting to resolve disputes over political representation, budgets, borders, customs, airports, roads, and most importantly oil.
Article 140 and the normalization of Kirkuk, however, remain elusive.
“Incoming UNAMI chief, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, should start by testing the political waters, increasing staff dedicated to the issue and developing a strategy for addressing it,” the ICG said in its report.
“In the meantime, the UN should help defuse the fallout between Baghdad and Erbil from the independence referendum.”
“UNAMI should start negotiations focusing on ‘low-hanging fruit’, such as joint security mechanisms in the disputed territories that would prevent ISIS from exploiting security gaps between contending military actors,” it said.
However, as the Kurdistan Region remains determined to incorporate Kirkuk and Baghdad determined to hold on to it, the present calm in the storm cannot last forever.
“Another violent spasm is just a matter of time, as predictable as the swing of a pendulum,” ICG said.
A resolution, therefore, must be found.
“Negotiating a political settlement is a sensible move now that the local and international environments are both conducive to a new UN-led initiative,” it added.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report on Friday urging the UN to examine opportunities to resolve the dispute over those areas claimed by both the federal and Kurdistan regional governments to prevent a repeat of the October 2017 violence.
“The UN should revive its stillborn mediation effort of a decade ago and work with regional and international partners to bring the two sides to the table and settle the issues dividing them,” the ICG report states. “In particular, it should work to reach a permanent deal on the disputed territories.”
ICG says the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) – which conducted a study on the disputed areas in 2008-2009 – is best placed to help find a settlement which falls in line with the Iraqi constitution.
“Indeed, in its study on the disputed territories UNAMI discovered that many people in these areas would prefer an ‘in-between’ status for these districts that would preserve their diversity and intercommunal harmony.”
“This would require a series of local power-sharing and joint security arrangements, as well as an overall revenue-sharing deal between the federal government and the KRG,” it added.
Kirkuk and the disputed territories have a special status under the Iraqi constitution drafted after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Article 140 stipulates the dispute should be resolved in a referendum to determine whether these areas should remain part of federal Iraq or be absorbed by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region.
Successive governments in Baghdad failed to hold such a referendum, fearing the loss of Kirkuk would make an independent Kurdistan economically viable and lead to the breakup of Iraq. However, by neglecting the issue, Baghdad bolstered calls for Kurdish independence, leading to the September 2017 referendum.
“Regardless of the Kurdish Region’s final political status, given its designation in the Iraqi constitution as a federal region it must have an agreed-upon internal boundary with the rest of Iraq. As long as Baghdad and Erbil can find a formula for sharing Iraq’s oil revenues, including those deriving from Kirkuk, that boundary’s location becomes less politically sensitive,” the ICR said.
When ISIS militants swept across northern Iraq in 2014, conquering several towns and cities, Iraqi forces withdrew from Kirkuk, leaving the city undefended. The Peshmerga came to its defense, holding the province and its oilfields until October 2017.
On October 16, in response to the Kurdistan independence referendum, the Iraqi Army and Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitias marched into Kirkuk and took over several of the disputed territories. Baghdad did this with the support of Iran, Turkey, European states, and the US, which had warned Erbil not to hold its referendum.
The Peshmerga clashed with Iraqi forces on several fronts, but prevented them from entering the Kurdistan Region itself. The events of October 16 are nevertheless widely seen by Kurds has a humiliating setback on the road to independence.
After the Iraqi takeover, Kurdish officials in Kirkuk were removed from office and Kurdish farmers either prevented from cultivating their land or driven away by Arab settlers. The feared resumption of government-sanctioned Arabization has done nothing to ease hostility.
The security gaps and instability caused by the takeover have also allowed ISIS remnants to regroup and resume a low scale insurgency.
Tensions between Erbil and Baghdad have receded somewhat over the past year, with Kurdish and Iraqi leaders meeting to resolve disputes over political representation, budgets, borders, customs, airports, roads, and most importantly oil.
Article 140 and the normalization of Kirkuk, however, remain elusive.
“Incoming UNAMI chief, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, should start by testing the political waters, increasing staff dedicated to the issue and developing a strategy for addressing it,” the ICG said in its report.
“In the meantime, the UN should help defuse the fallout between Baghdad and Erbil from the independence referendum.”
“UNAMI should start negotiations focusing on ‘low-hanging fruit’, such as joint security mechanisms in the disputed territories that would prevent ISIS from exploiting security gaps between contending military actors,” it said.
However, as the Kurdistan Region remains determined to incorporate Kirkuk and Baghdad determined to hold on to it, the present calm in the storm cannot last forever.
“Another violent spasm is just a matter of time, as predictable as the swing of a pendulum,” ICG said.
A resolution, therefore, must be found.
“Negotiating a political settlement is a sensible move now that the local and international environments are both conducive to a new UN-led initiative,” it added.
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