"I don't think we can be sure [of the ceasefire continuing]. This is related to the Turkish government and to what extent it adheres to it,” Gabriel told Rudaw TV in an interview on Monday. "We could expect the continuation of military operations as Turkey, based on the statements of Turkish officials starting from the Turkish president to the minister of defense and others, speak of the necessity of completing military operations in Syria."
Turkey launched the land invasion of its Operation Peace Spring on October 9, sending troops across the border into northern Syria to clear Kurdish groups from the frontier and make space to resettle up to 2-3 million Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. This proposed “safe zone” covers the major Kurdish-majority centres in Syria.
Ankara considers the Kurdish-led SDF a terror organization with ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Since the operation began, some 300,000 people have been displaced from their homes, and 200 civilians have been killed.
On Thursday, after five hours of negotiations between a US team led by Vice President Mike Pence and a Turkish team headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, they reached a ceasefire agreement.
The deal stipulated that within five days, Kurdish forces must withdraw with from two border towns and surrounding areas to a depth of 32 kilometers into Syria, hand back their heavy weapons to the US, and destroy their defensive positions, after which Turkey would declare a full ceasefire.
Erdogan, however, has refused to call the deal a ceasefire, saying it is merely a pause in operations. Both sides accused the other of violating the truce. The SDF on Monday accused Turkish forces of trying to advance westward. The SDF responded in self defence, it said in a statement.
The Kurdish forces have taken steps to abide by the ceasefire. On Sunday they withdrew fully from the border town of Sari Kani, which they had defended for 10 days.
The five-day cessation of hostilities is set to expire on Tuesday, coinciding with a visit by Erdogan to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking at a forum in Istanbul ahead of his trip to Sochi, Erdogan said he will not make a deal with a terrorist organization.
“We have not and will never sit at the same table with terrorists. Others may do it, it’s not our business, but it is significant to see where international politics, law of war and the fight against terrorism have come,” he said.
The SDF’s Gabriel said they have no indication whether or not Turkey will commit to the full ceasefire as dictated in the agreement: "There is no information as to what is going to happen later or tomorrow night.”
"In all circumstances, the Syrian Democratic Forces will be ready to face the threats and dangers to the area as self-defence against any attacks that could come from the Turkish side,” he said.
There is no force on the ground to monitor a ceasefire. Germany is expected to present a proposal to set up an international security zone at a meeting of NATO defense ministers later this week in a bid to fill the gap left by American troops who have pulled away from the border and, on Monday, crossed the border into the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
Along the route in both Syria and the Kurdistan Region, Kurds pelted the US military convoy with tomatoes, stones, and insults, accusing the Americans of abandoning them to “ethnic cleansing” at the hands of the Turkish state and their Syrian militia proxies.
Despite feeling betrayed, Gabriel said that relations will continue with their American allies.
“The relationship will continue as long as there are American troops on the ground. We have full ties with the [US-led] international Coalition. There are different activities that need to be coordinated with them until their full withdrawal from Syria,” he said.
The fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) still continues in northern Syria.
US President Donald Trump, in his most recent comments, also was not sure a permanent cessation of hostilities could take hold.
“It's going to probably work,” Trump said in a televised cabinet meeting on Monday. “But if it doesn't work, you're gonna have people fighting like they've been fighting for 300 years. It’s very simple.”
He added that they are “close” to securing a final deal, but refused to insert American soldiers in between the historic foes, saying several times: “We never agreed to protect the Kurds for the rest of their lives.”
As the Americans withdraw and wash their hands of the area, Kurdish forces made a deal with the Syrian regime in Damascus, via Russian mediation.
The agreement has seen slow deployment of Syrian Arab Army troops to some areas, including Kobane, Manbij, and Ain Issa. Gabriel explained that it was a "preliminary agreement" that will ultimately see government troops will be stationed along the border to prevent Turkish attacks.
Administration and non-military matters will be settled after the threat of Turkish attack is dealt with, he said.
A group of Russian military advisors reportedly arrived on Monday in Qamishli, the seat of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration that rules more than a quarter of Syria. A Rudaw reporter in the city said as many as 50 Russians had arrived and more were expected to follow. The local Rojava Information Centre reported that the Russians’ arrival preceded a planned deployment of regime forces along the border from Qamishli eastward towards Iraq.
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