ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Global media talk on the 2015 Turkish parliamentary election has been significant, with some calling it the country’s “most crucial election.” It will determine not only the next four years of Turkish politics, but also the role of the large Kurdish minority in the country’s power structure.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, for the last 13 years has sought a supermajority within Turkey’s 550 parliamentary seats in order rewrite the constitution. The pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) will contest this goal.
How does the Turkish electoral system work?
Turkey is ruled by a parliamentary system composed of 550 legislative members. In the 2015 election 20 political parties and 165 independent candidates are running for the national assembly that will rule the country for the next four years. Turkey uses a party-list proportional representation system.
Based on Turkish electoral rules, each party needs to reach at least 10 percent of nationwide votes in order to have its members enter the parliament. This means a party can win the majority of votes in specific electoral districts, yet gain no parliamentary seats due to low polling in other regions.
All votes cast for a party under the standard rate of 10 percent will be spoilt, while parties who won the 10 percent or above threshold will gain more seats. For instance, in the 2002 general election the AKP was able to seat its candidates in seats won by other parties who failed to gather 10 percent of the overall vote nationally. The AKP was able to seat two-thirds of the parliament despite only having 34.28 percent of the national vote.
Who are the prominent parties in this election?
According to the polls, at least four political parties are highly prominent in the 2015 parliamentary election. These parties are the AKP led by Ahmet Davutoglu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) run by Kemal Kilicdarogu, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and surprisingly the pro-Kurdish HDP under the leadership of Salahaddin Demirtas.
Experts believe the top three parties have secured their places in the new parliament, with the AKP likely losing seats. The big unknown is whether the HDP can come up with over 10 percent of the national vote to seat its candidates.
What is Erdoğan’s role?
The opposition parties have criticized Erdoğan for violating rules and regulations by campaigning for his AKP party in the parliamentary vote.
However, public opinion polls in Turkey show that Erdoğan’s violations of Turkish campaign law in this matter have not actually negatively affected his popularity, or his party’s chances of success in this election.
Women in the election
In Turkey’s 2011 election, there were 268 female candidates, but in 2015, 531 female candidates will participate. The HDP alone has 268 female candidates, while the AKP has 99.
Though considered a longshot, one candidate in this year’s election, 37-year-old Deva Ozenen, is a transsexual woman running for a parliament spot in the coastal city of Izmir. She is believed to be Turkey’s first transsexual parliamentary candidate.
HDP’s chances in 2015 election
This is the first time HDP has participated in a parliamentary election with a party-list rather than independent candidates. The pro-Kurdish party predicts it will have 11 parliament members and gain 14 percent of votes in Istanbul. With 4 million Kurds living in Istanbul, the HDP predicts they will win 1 million votes in Turkey’s largest city.
If Demirtas’ HDP crosses the 10 percent threshold for entering parliament as a party, that would extinguish AKP's constitutional plans.
More than 53 million people are eligible to vote, and there are more than 1 million first-time voters in Turkey in 2015.
Demirtas said Sunday when he cast his vote that regardless of election outcomes, people should not lose hope for democracy, and that he envisioned a nation where all are treated equally.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, for the last 13 years has sought a supermajority within Turkey’s 550 parliamentary seats in order rewrite the constitution. The pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) will contest this goal.
How does the Turkish electoral system work?
Turkey is ruled by a parliamentary system composed of 550 legislative members. In the 2015 election 20 political parties and 165 independent candidates are running for the national assembly that will rule the country for the next four years. Turkey uses a party-list proportional representation system.
Based on Turkish electoral rules, each party needs to reach at least 10 percent of nationwide votes in order to have its members enter the parliament. This means a party can win the majority of votes in specific electoral districts, yet gain no parliamentary seats due to low polling in other regions.
All votes cast for a party under the standard rate of 10 percent will be spoilt, while parties who won the 10 percent or above threshold will gain more seats. For instance, in the 2002 general election the AKP was able to seat its candidates in seats won by other parties who failed to gather 10 percent of the overall vote nationally. The AKP was able to seat two-thirds of the parliament despite only having 34.28 percent of the national vote.
Who are the prominent parties in this election?
According to the polls, at least four political parties are highly prominent in the 2015 parliamentary election. These parties are the AKP led by Ahmet Davutoglu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) run by Kemal Kilicdarogu, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and surprisingly the pro-Kurdish HDP under the leadership of Salahaddin Demirtas.
Experts believe the top three parties have secured their places in the new parliament, with the AKP likely losing seats. The big unknown is whether the HDP can come up with over 10 percent of the national vote to seat its candidates.
What is Erdoğan’s role?
The opposition parties have criticized Erdoğan for violating rules and regulations by campaigning for his AKP party in the parliamentary vote.
However, public opinion polls in Turkey show that Erdoğan’s violations of Turkish campaign law in this matter have not actually negatively affected his popularity, or his party’s chances of success in this election.
Women in the election
In Turkey’s 2011 election, there were 268 female candidates, but in 2015, 531 female candidates will participate. The HDP alone has 268 female candidates, while the AKP has 99.
Though considered a longshot, one candidate in this year’s election, 37-year-old Deva Ozenen, is a transsexual woman running for a parliament spot in the coastal city of Izmir. She is believed to be Turkey’s first transsexual parliamentary candidate.
HDP’s chances in 2015 election
This is the first time HDP has participated in a parliamentary election with a party-list rather than independent candidates. The pro-Kurdish party predicts it will have 11 parliament members and gain 14 percent of votes in Istanbul. With 4 million Kurds living in Istanbul, the HDP predicts they will win 1 million votes in Turkey’s largest city.
If Demirtas’ HDP crosses the 10 percent threshold for entering parliament as a party, that would extinguish AKP's constitutional plans.
More than 53 million people are eligible to vote, and there are more than 1 million first-time voters in Turkey in 2015.
Demirtas said Sunday when he cast his vote that regardless of election outcomes, people should not lose hope for democracy, and that he envisioned a nation where all are treated equally.
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