In less than a year the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has managed to get back on its feet, disproving those who believed the group was drawing its final breath. But those who think the PUK is beyond worry are wrong.
The outcome of last month’s Kurdish provincial polls has led PUK supporters to paint an optimistic image. They say that Kurdistan’s four provinces have been handed to the three major parties through popular vote.
Kirkuk has gone to the PUK; Sulaimani to the Change Movement (Gorran); Duhok to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Erbil to all. This interpretation is partly true, but it also contains two bitter facts for the PUK.
In all three provinces of the Kurdistan Region where the regional government is in power, the PUK has lost. And in Erbil, the KDP can run the affairs without the other groups.
The psychological state of PUK leaders and its lower ranking members has for the past year been rather tense. A party that since its very foundation was in power, and which once locked horns with another Kurdish mega party over revolutionary leadership, had suddenly found itself in the very pitiful position of being granted or denied ministries.
Nowadays, to get a rise out of PUK leaders it is enough to ask, “Which ministries will you get?” This thought bears heavily on the leaders of a party which once gave away ministries itself.
The sudden improvement of the PUK’s situation in last week’s elections would prove useful to the political process in the Kurdistan Region. Meanwhile, the downside of the PUK’s Strategic Agreement with the KDP demonstrated that the agreement of two big parties over the distribution of power and privileges would nurture corruption. Therefore, there is the need for more than just two parties in Kurdistan.
Even though the PUK is not the ultimate winner, its most recent rise boosted the morale of its leaders and supporters alike. In a state of defeat, the party leaders were not in a position to speak of participation in a government run by its two main rivals.
Now, since the recent elections renewed the PUK’s strength, its leaders and supporters can speak of joining the government with a confident voice and heads held high.
It is unlikely that the PUK would refuse a Gorran governor. Yet, to assert itself, the PUK could insist on a candidate acceptable to its leaders, too. This, in fact, would be necessary for the success of the future governor, and is by no means an unreasonable condition.
In Sulaimani, the PUK can form a provincial coalition with Gorran, while on a national level it could become an active opposition. Or it might as well be part of a national government and play an influential role in the province.
In either case, the PUK has too much to win, and little to lose over the next four years. If its internal issues do not lead to the party’s disintegration, the PUK can make sure it never again finds itself in the role of a defeated party.
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