by Darwn Rahim
No one could be happier than the Kremlin for the dramatic changes in US policy. The America First policy and Donald Trump`s appetite to cease the US`s long-time guardianship and commitment toward European security and stability, is a precious gift to the Russians, as America withdrawing from Europe will free Russia`s hands in Europe to consolidate its leverage.
Energy tops the EU`s security strategy as one of the most challenging threats, as the EU has been relying on importing natural gas from Russia, without having reliable alternative energy partners or suppliers. Vladimir Putin has utilized the EU`s vulnerable dependence on Russia to preserve his hegemony on the European political spectrum. In other words, natural gas plays an essential role in Putin`s geopolitical struggle in Europe.
However, Europe and the US have understood that reducing reliability on Russian natural gas and limiting its infiltration to the internal European politics requires new energy suppliers. Therefore, the EU has adopted the Southern Corridor strategy, which aims at linking natural gas reserves in the Caucasus and Central Asia to the European energy market, through constructing new pipeline networks. The US has rigorously supported this strategy politically and financially, until the inauguration of Donald Trump.
Washington’s political and financial support was pivotal to implement the European diversification plans effectively and smoothly. On one hand, it has deterred Russia in addition to encouraging investors to put their cash in multi-billion dollars pipeline investments without hesitation. On the other hand, it motivated potential supplier countries — mostly former Soviet Union republics — to think about European energy markets without fearing Russian reprisal.
Abandoning Europe will jeopardize European efforts and dreams of receiving fresh flows of natural gas from non-Russian sources. Further, turning back on such a strategic policy will empower Russia, making it an unavoidable and uncompetitive tycoon in the energy market.
On Feb. 2, 2017, the EU declared that Russia poses less threat to the Union`s energy security than before. This stance toward Russia embodies a sharp turn. Frequently, the reality hints no changes in Russian energy policies or behavior, but the EU does not desire further escalation against Moscow. The EU reshapes its foreign policy and prepares for the new era. We will hear further slowdown in the rhetoric against Russia by sidelining energy security for the moment. Apparently, America`s new isolationist policies will devastate the EU`s diversification agenda. Moreover, it discourages investors from participation in pipelines that lack political support.
However, no Caucasian or Central Asian country will dare to tap its natural gas into the European Union. Despite nearly three decades of independence, those countries are considered within the traditional zone of Russian influence. They will not be able to face Russia on their own, unless they obtain a strong ally, backing them against Russia.
Consequently, the new administration in Washington endangers its strongest ally beyond the Atlantic, causing anxiety and resentment. Additionally, Donald Trump will throw the Europeans into Russian arms and deepen their vulnerability. Also, his America First policy will obligate the EU to remain solely dependent on Gazprom, as he kills ambitious proposals to connect Europe to the southern natural gas reserve holders. Finally, abandons the former USSR republics to swim in the Russia`s orbit.
Darwn Rahim is a PhD candidate at Erfurt University in Germany. He holds a MA in National Security Studies from the German Armed Forces University. He has served as the personal assistant to the Kurdistan Parliament Speaker from May 2014 to October 2015.
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