Often after listening to some foreign experts one would feel that Kurdish leaders have failed to see the respectable weight the Kurdistan Region is gaining on the international stage.
Foreign observers, researchers and visitors to Kurdistan see the story from a different angle and speak from the point of view of the strategic balance in the region.
For instance, Arab countries and the Gulf region were stubbornly against Kurdish aspirations, particularly Kurdish independence. But now, voices can be heard from research centers in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, believing that an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq would build a counterbalance for the Sunnis in the wider region.
This view takes into account the marginalization of the Sunnis in a majority-Shiite Iraq and the country’s sandwiched position between Iran, Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Attaching Kurdistan to Iraq was, in the first place, to lend strength to the Sunni state. But ever since the Shiites came to power in Iraq a decade ago, that calculation has changed.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iraq has had complicated and uneasy relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Therefore, they now believe that a Kurdish state which is not Shiite and that can be a reliable corridor to Turkey and Europe, can bring back that lost balance.
Also recently, the London-based Centre for Global Studies wrote that within two years the Kurdistan Region can build its economic infrastructure, separate from Iraq and declare independence. The study points out the strong economic ties between Kurdistan and Turkey, Iran’s efforts to sell more oil -- which would reduce Iraq’s weight in OPEC -- and Syria’s dire situation, which cannot stand against such policies.
The report mentions the presence of American and European oil companies, their economic interests in the Kurdistan Region and their satisfaction with the deals they have signed with Erbil.
In short, Kurdistan is important. But the issue is that this is not really understood within Kurdistan itself. This may cause us to miss yet another great opportunity, as we did in the 1920s. An agreement and appreciation of the Kurdistan Region’s international reality is very crucial in order to walk towards the independence of at least this one part of Kurdistan. A golden opportunity has risen for the Kurds to achieve their goals, now that smaller nations seem be deciding their own fates.
Therefore, I believe that the Change Movement (Gorran) and Islamic League (Komal) made a wise decision last week to join the new cabinet of a national Kurdish government. By the same token, the insistence of the Islamic Union (Yekgirtu) to swap one ministry for another should not become a serious obstacle.
Meanwhile, putting aside its role in the triumphs and failures of Kurdistan for a moment, I think the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is making a mistake by not being part of the government and political process at this stage.
The PUK should not minimize itself and its weight because of the absence of its leader Jalal Talabani. It should not go from an active participant to becoming an observing opposition.
Getting one post or another in parliament or the cabinet should not really matter that much. What matters is that the PUK should put its act together and put forward some active and skilled people in their posts.
The PUK will achieve nothing by staying on the sidelines and mocking the new agreement between Gorran and the KDP. Through some wrong analysis, the PUK should not burn its past record in governance and its long-term future.
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