Israeli incursion into Gaza and the ensuing diplomatic efforts to end the violence have revealed Turkey’s waning influence in the region. In an attempt to regain its footing in the region after slips in its regional policy, Turkish government is now promoting itself as a potential mediator between Israel and Hamas. Particularly encouraging for Turkey’s mediation efforts has been Hamas’s rejection of an Egyptian proposal to broker a cease-fire.
Capitalizing on his close ties to Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to assume the role ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi played in securing the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in 2012 and return to the regional stage as a decisive player. A Turkish brokered ceasefire ending civilian deaths and violence would also increase Erdogan’s standing among Turkish electorate which is united in condemning Israel for the Palestinian deaths ahead of presidential elections in August. It would also divert attention away from the highly contentious domestic agenda. Current regional context, however, hinder Turkish ambitions to orchestrate the peace talks between Hamas and Israel.
In 2012, Morsi pursued a balanced approach that was both pragmatic to deliver the ceasefire and principled to stand in support of the Palestinians. While engaging Hamas, recalling his ambassador from Israel and dispatching his prime minister to Gaza in a show of solidarity with Gazans, Morsi had his security officials meet an Israeli envoy who flew secretly into Cairo for talks. Morsi held talks with Turkey, Qatar and a host of top Arab officials to get them behind his mediation. Although he disagreed with Obama over whom to blame for the violence in Gaza, he agreed to work with the US to halt it.
Erdogan, however, is in no position to lead the diplomatic efforts to end the crisis and build a consensus among the major stake-holders such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the US along with Hamas, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Except for Qatar, Turkey’s relationship with these actors has taken several blows over the last years, dashing Erdogan’s hopes to reclaim Turkey’s leadership role in the region.
The Syrian conflict had already pit Turkey against its one-time allies Iran and the Assad regime and further strained Ankara’s relations with Maliki’s Baghdad. After-effects of the Arab uprisings in Egypt dealt another blow to Turkey’s ties to several regional actors.
Turkey has been a staunch supporter of Muslim Brotherhood in the region. When the Egyptian army toppled the Muslim Brotherhood run government in Egypt, Turkey found itself in opposite camps with Saudis, other anti-Brotherhood regimes in the Gulf and the new rulers of Egypt. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal of their ambassadors from Qatar due to its backing for the Brotherhood only added to Turkey’s regional isolation.
Turkey’s relationship with Israel remains strained since the flotilla incident in which nine Turks were killed in the 2010 Israeli assault on the flotilla, which had sought to deliver humanitarian supplies to the Gaza strip.
Before the current crisis, the two sides were getting ready to sign a compensation deal for families of the Turkish victims. The most recent Israeli attack against Gaza, however, seems to have halted the normalization process between former allies. In a recent statement, Erdogan said “All possible steps towards the normalization of relations with Israel have been locked in a box because of the recent Israeli atrocities in Palestine” while Israel strongly opposes any major Turkish role in the talks with Hamas.
Turkey-US relations also have been rocky in the past year. Ankara was critical of Washington’s stance vis-à-vis the coup in Egypt and its failure to pursue a more forceful Syria policy while the White House's views of Erdogan have soured due to Turkey's stance on Egypt, Ankara’s turning a blind eye to weapons transfers from its territory to Al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria and the government’s meddling in freedom of speech and media. The bilateral relations hit a new low when Erdogan Obama to extradite the Pennsylvania based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen who is accused of creating a “parallel state” and attempting to topple Erdogan’s elected government.
Egyptian efforts to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas seem to be deepening the rift between Cairo and Ankara. In a recent statement, an infuriated Erdogan defined Sisi’s effort to secure a ceasefire as an attempt to legitimize his rule and called him a "tyrant" who could not be trusted to mediate a truce while Sisi accused Turkey and Qatar of sabotaging the ceasefire proposal Cairo drafted. Hamas is adamant that Turkey and Qatar lead the ceasefire talks but the US, Israel and the PA President Mahmoud Abbas insist on Egypt to orchestrate the talks.
As the gruesome pictures depicting the loss of innocent lives in Gaza hit the living rooms and more and more Turks from all walks of life take it to the streets to protest Israeli offense, Erdogan continues to lash out at Israel, the US and the Arab world for not doing enough to stop the bloodshed and promote Turkey to lead the ceasefire talks. His strong support for the Gazans might win him favorable views among the Turkish electorate ahead of presidential elections in August. His bid to lead the ceasefire talks, however, is a long shot considering the opposition from the Saudis, UAE, Israel, Egypt and the US. Marginalized in regional affairs four years after the start of the Arab uprisings, Turkey will have to settle for a secondary role in Hamas-Israeli conflict. Prime Minister Erdogan might lean on the Hamas leader Meshaal personally to persuade him to agree to an immediate truce before negotiating the terms of the deal.
Gonul Tol is Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute.
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