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By 2051, experts warn, Ukraine’s population could decline further to just 25 million. Photo: Rudaw/screengrab
KIYV, Ukraine - For Konstantin and Valerina, the decision to marry was no longer about waiting for the perfect moment, but about racing against an uncertain future as the Ukraine-Russia war drages on.
The couple, originally from the frequently shelled northern city of Sumy, went ahead with their wedding plans in Kyiv on Friday, choosing the capital for its relative safety.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, triggering a war that has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions, and shows no sign of ending.
“We were waiting for the war to end,” Konstantin, the groom told Rudaw over the weekened. “But it has dragged on for too long, so we decided to go ahead with it.”
Valerina, who is pregnant, said the decision was driven by necessity in a country where the future feels increasingly unpredictable.
“We don’t know what tomorrow will bring,” she said. “So we decided not to delay, but to move forward and adapt to the circumstances we are living in now.”
Their wedding offers a rare bright spot in an otherwise grim demographic landscape. According to recent data, marriage rates across Ukraine have fallen by nearly 50 percent since the start of the full-scale invasion. However, in Kyiv, wedding planners report a localized uptick.
“I can say that the number of marriages has increased,” said Olena Krychenko, a Kyiv-based wedding planner. She noted that soldiers serving on the front lines often seek to officially register their marriages.
“This allows them to legalize their relationships, and the men know that a wife is waiting for them here at home,” she said.
Despite such individual acts of hope, Ukraine’s broader demographic outlook is dire. The quiet in the nation’s maternity wards is becoming a matter of national concern.
Birth rates have fallen by 60 percent since 2013. That year, Ukraine recorded more than 504,000 births; by 2025, the number had dropped to just 180,000.
At maternity clinics, patient demographics have shifted dramatically. Oleg Britavoy, a clinic director, said the mass departure of young women from the country has left a significant gap.
“Most of our patients now are older women - some in their late 40s or even 50s,” Britavoy said. “Families who have lost children want another child to provide some form of solace. This will become a major crisis in the post-war period.”
The demographic math is increasingly bleak. In 2025, deaths outnumbered births by nearly three to one.
Vasyl Voskoboinyk, a demographics researcher, estimates that Ukraine is losing approximately 300,000 people annually, even when excluding direct military casualties.
“What we are witnessing is a demographic crisis,” Voskoboinyk said. “The processes unfolding in Ukraine are extremely serious and will shape the future of our country.”
Data from the Institute of Demography at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine underscores the long-term challenge. A population of 42 million before 2022 has already fallen below 36 million.
By 2051, experts warn, Ukraine’s population could decline further to just 25 million.
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