Theresa May could win bigly

May reportedly embraced an early election because she feared Labour was about to dump Corbyn, seen as an asset to the Tories and whose photo may appear on more Conservative than Labour election leaflets. Some party activists can only canvass for their local Labour candidate because they know Corbyn will not become PM.

Conservatives have not yet released their undoubtedly thick dossier on his past stances on controversial issues. Labour officials reportedly vetoed a proposed slogan that 'the Tories are the real extremists' because it raised awkward issues about Corbyn's record. But Corbyn supporters have launched a new website that rebuts common charges. 

The answer to 'I've heard he's a terrorist sympathiser' says 'Like many politicians during the troubles with the IRA, Jeremy was attempting to bring together both sides to broker peace and his belief in transparency meant that unlike other politicians he did not keep this secret.' As one who campaigned against paramilitary terrorism and spoke to their representatives, this is news to me. 

Corbyn's close colleague and current Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell went further. In 2003, he said 'It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of [IRA hunger striker] Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA. Because of the bravery of the IRA and people like Bobby Sands we now have a peace process.' McDonnell apologised if he caused any offence. But the Tories will amplify this record.

And that includes current security issues. Asked if he would authorise a drone strike against al-Baghdadi, Corbyn gave a convoluted answer that while 'I think the leader of Isis not being around would be helpful,' civilian deaths could block a political solution. He could have cut the waffle and say, yes, assassinating al-Baghdadi is fine but let's do our best to avoid civilian deaths.

Corbyn's domestic platform is more crisp and confident with several attractive pledges but only a miracle will preserve or increase Labour representation. The Conservatives could treble their 17 seat majority at the very least. Labour could even win fewer votes than the Liberal Democrats but the vagaries of the electoral system would not convert that into many LibDem seats. Labour would remain the Official Opposition but defeat will lead to either a purge of the leader; who may not voluntarily resign, and his supporters or a split. Labor activists on all sides are also preparing for a post-defeat leadership contest.

May's main reason for going early is to secure a mandate to negotiate Brexit on her terms. A bigger parliamentary majority could enable May to accept terms that are currently unacceptable to her own fervent Brexiteers. Some Labour voters may decide that the Conservatives offer a better prospect of stability as we leave the EU, while many UK Independence Party voters will return to the Conservatives. 

But Brexit is not the only issue at stake. The election should also focus on how to rebalance and renew an economy whose transformation was symbolised last week when the old basis of our industrial revolution, coal, provided no electricity for the first time in history. 

Commentators are divided between those who fear a Conservative swing to the right and those who see the open goal of the election as the opportunity to play to the centre and parts of the left field. Labour defeat could shift it to the right while Tory victory could move it to the left.

The coming Conservative manifesto will clarify its strategic choice but an early sign concerns right-wing proposals to scrap the law devoting 0.7% of gross national income to overseas aid because we should spend money at home. After what may have been a staged debate, May said it should stay. It symbolises the UK's ambition to embrace global compassion as a development superpower. 

Candidates may stumble and policies may crumble in the coming weeks but, all things being equal, this snap election could prove as decisive as seminal elections in 1945, 1979 and 1997 in fundamentally altering the course of British politics by giving Conservatives power for a decade or more.