ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The shifting balance of power in the Middle East amid the United States “retrenchment” and the Gulf states' adaptation to a multipolar world order were key topics that dominated discussions among researchers and dignitaries at the Middle East Research Institute’s (MERI) Forum 2025 in Erbil on Tuesday.
Randa Slim, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, remarked that “the US retrenchment - or the perception of the US leaving the Middle East - has really created opportunities for countries like Russia and China to test the waters and begin building alliance networks in the region.”
She noted the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump’s approach to the region, while emphasizing that “the major lens, through which, the [Trump] administration - but also Mr. Trump himself - sees the Middle East is mostly [the lens of] countering Chinese influence in the region,”
Quoting the US president’s stance upon entering office for his second term, Slim said, “Gone are the broad, long-term entanglements the US had in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.”
However, despite this pullback, the prominent researcher highlighted that Trump “showed his readiness - even when negotiating with Iran - to launch a military strike on Iran.” She argued that the latter reflects the US President’s shift towards “limited use of military force,” and reliance on “over the horizon” engagements with the use of drones and cyber technologies.
While some countries in the region still rely on Washington as a key security guarantor, Slim argued that the world has “moved away from the unipolarity of the 1990s to 2010s when the US was [the] unchallenged power in the region, economically, militarily.”
“We are in a transition towards some kind of a fragmented multi-polarity,” Slim noted.
Narayanappa Janardhan, director of research and analysis at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, echoed Slim’s view, especially from an economic standpoint.
Janardhan noted that “while it may be hard to argue that this is a multipolar world geopolitically, it’s much easier to make that case from a geoeconomic perspective.”
He pointed out that there is no clear consensus on whether today’s world is unipolar, bipolar, tripolar, or multipolar. In his view, it is not just state actors shaping global dynamics anymore - non-state actors, such as multinational corporations with trillions in revenue, are also major players, he argued, suggesting the emergence of a “multiplex world.”
The senior researcher pointed to the growing economic ties between Gulf states and Asia, where trade now totals around $750 billion - compared to only $250 billion combined with the US and Europe. The economic pivot, according to Janardhan, indicates that Gulf countries are increasingly moving away from reliance on the West, even as political and military ties remain intact.
Highlighting the Iranian perspective, Seyed Mohammed Hosseini from the Institute for Political and International Studies in Tehran emphasized Iran’s commitment to regional cooperation.
Tehran is “looking to have a good relationship with all the countries in the region and beyond,” he said, adding that for Iran, “the security of the region is essential.”
He further noted Iran’s efforts to stabilize the region by offering regional neighbors assistance and alternative markets for their economy, the US and their backing of Israel in order to create a hegemony over the region is destabilizing the securities of the region and pulling towards a unipolar order.
Hosseini argued that Iran plays a stabilizing role by offering assistance and economic alternatives to regional states. He contrasted this with the US, whom he claimed was contributing to regional instability by providing unwavering support for Israel.
The MERI Forum is an annual event that brings together local and international policymakers, academics and experts to discuss pressing developments in the Middle East and broader region.
Speaking to Rudaw’s Hiwa Jamal ahead of the forum, MERI President Dlawer Ala’Aldeen stated that “bringing together the leaders, who are expected to speak at this event, was not easy.” He emphasized that the forum aims to “provide clarity to people regarding the analysis of events that occurred over the past year and what lies ahead.”
Among the key speakers this year are Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani, and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) leader Bafel Talabani, alongside several prominent Iraqi officials and international policymakers.