Since roughly a week ago, protests erupted across all of Iran in response to an overnight hike in the price of fuel. The price hike stemmed from the reduction of government subsidies on fuel, which occurred without warning. According to the Washington Post, “…demonstrators angered by the fuel price hike have confronted security forces in at least 100 locations, surpassing the previous protests in ferocity and geographic scale. They burned banks and police stations, ransacked government buildings and blocked roads. Riot police responded with tear gas, water cannons and live fire, rights groups said. More than 100 demonstrators may have been killed, according to Amnesty International.” After a week of unrest, Iranian state forces appear to be finally getting the upper hand in snuffing out protests. They have done so through heavy-handed means, firing live bullets at protestors and shutting down the Internet country-wide so that the suppression happens in silence. These are the favorite tactics of authoritarian regimes: live fire against unarmed protestors, conducted in conditions of media blackout. Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials thus proudly announced yesterday that they have “prevented Iran from becoming Baghdad or Lebanon.” The statement makes reference to similar protests rocking Iraq and Lebanon over the last two months. Governments in Iraq and Lebanon do not appear as ruthless or effective in blocking out media scrutiny, which left room for the protests to survive longer there. The protests in Iraq and Lebanon, both ruled by Iranian client regimes, point to a larger problem for Tehran’s rulers. The Iranians and those operating in their image may excel at cloak and dagger diplomacy, the creation of client proxy forces and maximization of their regional influence despite limited means. They do not appear so skilled at governing, however. Good governance means providing your people with ways to secure their basic needs and a decent future. It means providing basic services, good education, healthcare, and infrastructure. A well-governed society offers people merit-based avenues to pursue a better future for themselves. Last but not least, the most well governed systems allow people high levels of individual and group liberty, letting them be themselves to live their lives as they see best. Minority provinces of Iran such as Kurdistan and Khuzestan (Kurdish and Arab, respectively) face the most poverty and the worst denials of liberty. During the past week’s protests, these places saw some of the greatest unrest and the most people killed by regime forces. While post-Saddam Iraq and Lebanon score much higher than Iran on the liberty matrix, neither Iran nor its client regimes seem capable of meeting the other requirements of good governance. The protests in all three countries, just like major protests in Iran that occurred in 2018, stem in large part from people’s frustration with a system apparently incapable of even providing for basic needs. Although U.S.-led sanctions on Iran do not help the situation, they do not account for all the problems in Iran, nor in Iraq and Lebanon (countries not facing sanctions). This columnist remembers a trip he made to Iran in the summer of 1999, during which student protests broke out across the country. Although the Iranian students were mainly protesting a lack of civil liberties, average Iranians appeared rife with bitterness and frustration towards the regime. I saw mullahs unable to hail a taxi in Tehran, Sanandaj and other cities. In the city of Orumiyeh, a local giving me a lift in his car began swearing profusely (using choice words from Persian, Kurdish and Turkish in a reflection of Urumiyeh’s polyglot culture) every time he saw mullahs on the road. When I asked him “why?” he responded, “Look at them in their fine robes – they run the country and preach morality to us, while taking prostitutes under the cover of ‘temporary marriage.’ They steal the country’s wealth, spending it on their fine houses or sending it to Lebanon, Palestine and elsewhere. Do we not have poor people here to help? Look at the young kids in the street selling cigarettes – they should be in school!” For whatever reason, Iranian regime elites and their friends in Lebanon and Iraq (as well as Syria) seem incapable of reining in corruption and government malfeasance enough to leave the bulk of their people a good future. As the protests demonstrate, however, their penchant for distracting people with veneers of “Islamic morality” and sectarian solidarity can only go so far. Eventually the people tire of not having jobs, electricity or bread on their tables. David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since 2010. He holds the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and is the author of numerous publications on the Kurds and the Middle East. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
