Opinions
Iraqi security forces stand guard as employees of Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission count votes of the parliamentary elections in Baghdad's Green Zone area on October 13, 2021. Photo: AFP
Following the collapse of the Baath regime in 2003, the term “Shiite House” was added to Iraq’s political lexicon. This group participated in 2005 elections as one list, and they were united under the supervision of top cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. But they were soon divided into several groups. In the 2021 elections, they were split into four main corners.
Sadr wins a majority
Sadrists, a populist group with weapons, have increased their seats in the parliament. In the 2018 vote, they took 52 out of 54 seats won by the strongest Shiite coalition, Sairoon. In this year’s election, the Sadrists increased their seats to over 70 - nearly half of all seats won by Shiite parties. Their lead over their strongest rival, the State of Law led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, was significant — Maliki won 38 seats.
Although around 600,000 people out of the country’s 25 million eligible voters cast a ballot for the Sadrist bloc, its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, is seen as the strongest because he is technically the winner of the election and controls an armed group, Saraya al-Salam. While many Iraqis boycotted the election, Sadrist supporters came out enthusiastically; a characteristic of this group is that they obey their leader, following a “hear and obey” principle.
Sistani called on people to participate in the elections, but the overall turnout was 41 percent. Some people say the turnout would have been around 30 percent if Sistani did not make the call. The Sadrists were not among the boycotters.
In the post-election era, if Sadr does not have the last say in the appointment of a new prime minister, the cabinet will not prevail. Sadr will have dominance over all parts of the government. As some say, it will be the “Sadr Era,” especially as the United States is withdrawing from the country.
Maliki resurfaces
Maliki’s return to the parliament with more seats than in the outgoing legislature was unexpected. Maliki is a complicated political figure and a strong rival of Sadr. There are obstacles before him if he wants to return to the position of prime minister. The biggest is an indirect veto against him by Sistani who has said “those who have been tried, will not be tried again.”
Other obstacles include the fall of Mosul to the Islamic State group (ISIS) and the Speicher massacre, which took place during his tenure in 2014, as well as his poor relations with Kurdish and Sunni Arabs parties.
While Maliki enjoys his victory, other Shiite forces like Fatih and Hezbollah [Huquq Movement] experienced a defeat, with the latter failing in its first election experience. Maliki may have taken some seats from these parties, which are politically close. Maliki even claims to be the founder of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi in Arabic), which was formed in 2014 to confront ISIS attacks following a call from Sistani.
Maliki is known to be pro-Iran, but some believe his pride has prevented him from being fully committed to Iran or cooperating with others.
Most of the seats Maliki won are from outside the Dawa Party circle. This is a sign that he was forming a network for his interests while he was prime minister in 2014 and 2015 when the price of oil reached $114, giving hope to some that his return to the premiership may bring job opportunities, a richer budget, many projects and investments. They call his tenure the “joyous years.”
PMF’s Fatih Alliance
It would not be an exaggeration to say that the slashing of the number of seats held by the Hashd al-Shaabi’s Fatih Alliance by more than half was unexpected. Hadi al-Amiri, head of the coalition, and Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, said several times before the elections that “This is a Hashd election.” They frequently referred to the PMF’s sacrifices in the fight against ISIS while campaigning, but the tactic seems to have been ineffective. In the previous election, ISIS had just been defeated and the PMF was seen as the rescuer of Iraq. However, much has happened since 2018, including the Tishreen (October) protests and the death of 600 people. Shiite armed groups within the PMF are accused of killing protesters. The PMF is no longer seen as a pure institution. Recent reports allege the PMF’s involvement in corruption. Their seats dropped from 47 to fewer than 20.
PMF leadership has insisted that the elections were rigged, saying this was why they lost seats. Some people close to Asaib Ahl al-Haq associate the defeat with a weakness in Amiri’s agenda. There are even efforts to replace Amiri with Khazali in the coalition leadership. There are also some who claim that PMF’s leverage should not be measured by the number of seats. The PMF have nearly 200,000 fighters registered with and paid by Baghdad. They also consider themselves sacred and the product of Sistani’s fatwa for their formation. Iran fully supports their existence. Some even say that they want to extend their fight to Afghanistan, currently controlled by Taliban.
Hakim-Abadi
In the fourth Shiite corner is the National State Forces Alliance between Ammar al-Hakim and former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Their seats dropped significantly from more than 50 to only five in the election. This means their position in the new parliament will be weak. Their defeat happened despite the fact that Hakim is from a distinguished religious family and Abadi was prime minister for four years and claims that he should be credited for the defeat of ISIS and regaining control of Kirkuk from the Kurdish Peshmerga.
Many reasons have been suggested for their defeat, including their pride, loss of confidence among Shiite voters and lack of a clear-cut message. Hakim’s Hikma block and Abadi’s coalition have experienced divisions in the past, and they too emerged after separating from other parties; Hakim separated from Islamic High Council and Abadi separated from Dawa Party. They both eyed liberal votes by abandoning their right-wing ideologies.
Tishreen
In Shiite-populated areas, a number of independent candidates, including organizers of Tishreen protests, won seats. This is a new development. They won five seats in Najaf and may secure as many as four in Nasiriyah and Muthanna. The new Tishreen lawmakers do not have weapons and money. They will definitely be a headache for the conservative parties in the south of the country because they aspire toward a new type of politics.
Yaseen Taha is an expert on Iraq affairs, with a focus on sectarianism.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
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