China seeks to help end Iran conflict: Analyst

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - China is seeking to position itself as a key mediator in efforts to end the war involving Iran, Israel and the United States, with Beijing relying on its economic influence rather than military power to expand its role in the Middle East, according to a prominent Chinese analyst.

“What I think, actually, is that China this time is really putting a lot of effort to try to mediate in this crisis, the Israel and US war on Iran and the whole conflict in the Middle East,” Huiyao Wang, President of the Center for China and Globalization think tank, told Rudaw in an interview in Beijing on Friday.

The comments come as diplomatic efforts to secure a lasting truce between Iran and the US-backed Israeli campaign have stalled despite a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire reached on April 8. China has intensified diplomatic outreach in recent months as instability threatens energy supplies, and traffic remains limited in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Wang said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had made “over 30 phone calls” with regional and international officials, including Gulf states, Arab countries, Iran, the European Union, the US secretary of state and Russia’s foreign minister.

“So, I think in that sense, China was really very impartial, and I want to see peace in that region,” he said.

Beijing has deepened economic ties across the Middle East over the past decade through its Belt and Road Initiative, becoming the largest trading partner for several countries in the region. Wang argued that China’s approach differs from Washington’s because it focuses on economic cooperation rather than military involvement.

“China doesn't have to send soldiers,” he said. “You just say, ‘Okay, please stop. Otherwise, you know, the trade will be impacted.’ That's a strong enough message.”

Wang rejected suggestions that China seeks geopolitical competition with the United States in the Middle East, saying Beijing views regional instability as harmful to its interests.

“This war has brought Iranians five years behind in history,” he said. “China wants to see that part of the world prosper so that China can continue to do trade.”

He added that Beijing sees itself as a potential peace broker acceptable to all sides involved in the conflict.

“And then if they want to calm down, where is the third party that is acceptable to everybody? And then China is the party,” Wang said.

The following is the full transcript of the interview with Huiyao Wang:

Rudaw: So, if I start with my first question, China sees itself as a mediator in the Middle East regarding Iran's situation, but some people believe and criticize that China is tilting or leaning toward Iran. So, how can China be an impartial mediator in the region?

Huiyao Wang: Yeah, thank you for the interview. What I think, actually, is that China this time is really putting a lot of effort to try to mediate in this crisis, the Israel and US war on Iran and the whole conflict in the Middle East. What I think is that I have never seen China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, make over 30 phone calls to all the Gulf states, to all the Arab states in that region, and also including Iran. And also, of course, UN Security Council member countries, the European Union, the US Secretary of State, and the Russian Foreign Minister. So, you never see that, over 30 phone calls made, and China's Ambassador Zhai, the envoy, was shuttling between China and the Middle East region. So, I think because China has a very good history. Historically, China doesn't have baggage with the Middle East. It's never invaded, never started any trouble there. There's always a good, peaceful, friendly image. The China-Arab summit is going to happen this year in Beijing, and also China launched the Belt and Road Initiative. Almost all the countries are members of that. So, I think in that sense, China was really very impartial, and I want to see peace in that region. For example, 40 percent of China's energy input comes from that part of the world, and largely from all the Gulf states, but they also buy petroleum from Iran as well. So, I think it will be in China's interest to see this war come down, and then no matter whom, they should not fight. Like the Iranian foreign minister was in Beijing not too long ago. For Mr. Wang, he told him, ‘Please stop the war, and please open the Strait of Hormuz, and please engage in dialogue.’ So, I think that's a very strong message. I don't think China was really sided with anybody. China sided with peace. You know, China wants to do mediation and all its best to make sure that we come back to a peaceful situation.

So, do you think China is still taking or pursuing the balanced strategy, or is it taking a clearer geopolitical side in this regard?

China does not take a big strategic balancing strategy. What China does is really, I would call it, an economic globalization, economic strategy. If you want to say a strategy, China pursues a very healthy globalization economic strategy. For example, China started the Belt and Road Initiative. China is really a big investor in all the Gulf and the Middle East countries. China had China-Arab summits, and China recently opened zero tariffs to all 53 African states, including some Arab states. So, you see China is basically pursuing an economic development strategy for all the countries in that part of the world. China doesn't really have any military strategy. You have no security strategy. And if you really talk about geopolitically, China doesn't want to see that part of the world be jeopardized or disruptive. China wants to see the supply of energy from that part of the world to China as secure and stable. So, I don't think it's in China's interest to see a balance or to side with one side against the other. China really treats all global South countries equally, and maybe some country has a closer relationship, but then they are not at the expense of other countries.

If the war in the Middle East and Iran expanded and prolonged, so where or when would China decide the line between diplomacy and taking some initiative or some military or security involvement?

I think what China does is, for example, U.S. President Trump is coming to Beijing tonight, right? I mean, they're going to have a summit with the Chinese leader. And that's where, you know, we're going to see maybe some consensus because both the U.S. and China want to see this war ended. And then we also see Iran wants this war ended too. So, there's a huge interest from the U.S., from Iran, from Arab states, all want this war to be finished. And then, you know, there's a face issue, there are historical baggages, there's a different argument, we see Pakistan was involved as well. But what China involves, China carries the most weight because China is the largest economic power with this part of the world, you know, the largest trading nation with all the countries in that part of the world. So, if China says please stop, I think that kind of action is backed by the economic influence and impact China has. China doesn't have to send soldiers, but China provides a lot of materials, China provides a lot of support, and China provides economic pipelines there. And the foreign exchange currency coming out of China, you know, really supports that part of the world. So, I think China doesn't have to say we support, we're going to do military, or we're going to do something. You just say, ‘Okay, please stop. Otherwise, you know, the trade will be impacted.’ That's a strong enough message, I think, China can give.

China has a very good involvement and development regarding the economy with Iran, and a very strategic partnership they are. So, if China is not taking some security or military involvements, how can China accept or think to be a global power? Does it impact China to call itself a global power if they don't intervene or they don't use military forces?

Huiyao Wang: No, China does not really use military forces internationally, but China itself has huge defense capabilities. If you talk about military power, China is the largest Navy force in the world, producing more ships than any other country in the world. And then China has built up this strong deterrence that if any Chinese interest is violated, China has certainly a strong military power enough to achieve this deterrent status. So, once that deterrent status has been achieved, the rest is economic power. So, China has the economic power backed by Chinese military power. So, nobody could fight with China militarily because they know they cannot win, they cannot fight, it's going to be a lose-lose situation. But then the things remain, peaceful competition is the economic power. So, China has huge economic power, and then that is going to make a lot of difference because militarily they don't have to, but economically they have a huge influence. And then it boils down to the bread and butter and the livelihood of the people, which is really the key issue that all governments have to think about.

The US and Israel's actions toward Iran and the Middle East, do you think it's destabilizing for China, or does China see it as an opportunity to expand its economic dominance and involvement?

No, I think it's destabilizing. It's put things back many years. For example, it devastated the Middle East, the Gulf states. I mean, all this infrastructure, the credibility, the attractiveness, the destination of all those Arab states has been jeopardized. This war has brought Iranians five years behind in history. So, there are a lot of things happening, and then it's not in the Chinese interest. China wants to see that part of the world prosper so that China can continue to do trade and can develop the Belt and Road and also all kinds of Chinese projects. Chinese business is thriving in the Middle East. And then if that is really jeopardized, China has no interest there. So, I think it's in the Chinese interest to see that part of the world order be restored and also all the situation of peace being achieved. And then if that is needed, China can do all its best, be a mediator, be a peacemaker, or a guarantor of some kind. I think more and more people realize, okay, all the G7 leaders come to China, except Japan, and then now Trump has come. It all fundamentally needs China's help. So, I think China's influence is going up daily, and then now is the biggest help-seeker coming from President Trump.

So, realistically, do you believe China can be a real peace broker, or is this imagination overstated?

No, I think realistically China can because China has already done that in the past, you know, the Balkan, the Iranian, and the Saudis. I mean, it's not the first time. And then I have to say also because of the situation, because of the interest of both Iranians and the Arab states and the U.S. and Israel, they all want to come to the end of this war. Because the U.S., first of all, its hands are tied. Congress would not allow, would not authorize the war. Sixty days of the war has expired, so they cannot continue to fight there. And Iran has already suffered so much, they probably exhausted most of its ammunition. They cannot sustain that war either. So, they all want to calm down. And then if they want to calm down, where is the third party that is acceptable to everybody? And then China is the party. So, I don't think you need a lot of effort from China. They just use China as a good reason, as stairs to calm down, gracefully say, ‘Oh, we all gave face to China.’ Okay, President Trump has asked China, the Iranian foreign minister comes to China, the king of Saudi phoned President Xi, the UAE prince visits China. Okay, everybody comes to China, then okay, let's jump on this platform, let's calm down.

How vulnerable is China to the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz? Despite that, China is going to renewable energy, trying to clear energy. How vulnerable is China?

I think China certainly is going to be impacted by that. Because even though China's 50-60 percent energy is renewable now, and China also has a big reserve, China also has other alternatives to buy from Russia, from Central Asia, or other countries. So, China can manage this kind of crisis better than any other country because China already prepared for this with green power for a long time. You see most of the cars running in Beijing are fueled by electric power. And China is the largest electric power producer in the world, 2.5 times that of the US, 3 times that of Europe. So, China is really fine on its electric power. And so, but certainly still, I mean, China needs Middle East petroleum and oil and all the rest. It will just be affected less than others. But I think the pressure is building up. Japan needs 90 percent from the Middle East, ASEAN, South Korea, Central Asia, and then European countries also badly need it. So, I think the pressure cooker is boiling and sooner or later it will explode. So, I think it's high time that the US, Iran, and all the Arab states and China find a way to calm down the situation.

China has developed and grown investment in Iraq. How does China navigate or see the relationship between the Kurdistan Region Government of Iraq and Iraq?

I think China has a policy that does not interfere in domestic affairs. China doesn't like other countries to interfere with China's domestic affairs, and China does not interfere with other countries' domestic affairs too. So, it really pins the hope on the local government, local authority, local political forces to work things out. But of course, China does have a bottom line that you cannot really abuse power, you cannot really be killing people, have a civil war going on, things like that. So, I think in that sense, China would like to see a peaceful solution. If it doesn't happen, China always likes to discuss at the UN or the UN Security Council, but China does not really support one party against the other. I don't think China has used that in the past.

So, does China see the Kurdistan Region Government as an economic strategic partner or as a primary part of Iraq?

I'm not an expert on that, but my feeling is that China does not get into the interference of domestic affairs. China always, when they deal with a country, they deal with the country as a whole. They can always work with the central government, they can also work with the local government. That's been Chinese business practice all these years. Even in the States, they can work with the federal government, they can work with state governments. In Europe, it was the same thing. So, I think if it's legitimate, if it's recognized internationally, I don't see why China would not collaborate. I don't see any problem there.

So, how concerned is China about the situation in the Kurdistan Region regarding the BRI projects?

The BRI was launched about 12-13 years ago. It's been doing very well. So far, there's over 1 trillion US dollars being invested, over 3,000 projects have been constructed, and suddenly BRI has also... I'm not saying it's perfect, it still has some problems too sometimes, but compared with the treatment, it's really great. So, I'm not really familiar with the domestic situation on those specific projects, but in general, I think Belt and Road projects are doing well and are welcomed by all those local countries. And because that's the only economic infrastructure that China is providing to support local development. And then also China's experience is very useful. ‘If you want to be rich, build the roads first.’ And then I think China, the track record shows China has done well in Africa, in the Middle East, in Latin America, and Central Asia. In general, I haven't heard a lot of bad things on that.

Most of the Chinese investment projects in the frame of BRI projects are implemented in the central and south part of Iraq, not in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Why?

I'm not an expert on those details, the country distribution of the project. You ask a lot of questions I'm not really an expert on, so I can't say why there's a difference, because I just think if it's a legitimate government, a legitimate project, and generally for the benefit of the local community and people, China is always willing to help. But I'm not involved in those political issues that you talked about.

Is China interested in dealing with non-state countries or regions, or does China adhere to state-to-state diplomacy?

I think largely China sticks to state-to-state relations. I mean, if there's a local government not recognized by the federal government, not recognized by the central government, I think China probably would not involve itself too much on that. So, I have to say that 184 countries that recognize China have diplomatic ties. That is the fundamental basis that they carry their bilateral relations on. They have to respect that bilateral relation.

Do you see the Middle East as a new arena for China-US competition?

No, I don't think so. There's no reason for China to compete there, because China does all the economic cooperation. The U.S. can do whatever the U.S. wants to do, and it'll be on a merit basis, on the benefit, whoever can gain from the benefit of this cooperation. The Middle East countries don't have to pick sides. It has to be case by case. Whoever can provide a good benefit, then they work with the partner they choose.

Can China expand its projects and developments in the region without coming under the burden of the security threats or issues the US has faced in the region? So, can China escape it and successfully do the economic work without having any security issues like the US has?

I'm sure China can, of course. The current situation is disrupted. Of course, China is certainly concerned and deeply concerned and would like to mediate. That's why you see so many phone calls being made and Ambassador Zhai has been an envoy shuttling among those countries. We don't want to see that happen, but if it happens, China would love to try to promote peace and talks. And so if it happens for a long time, there must be a way to sort it out. That's why we're having this Trump visit also. I'm sure China would compare notes with the U.S. on what they are thinking. And so if all the big countries work together, maybe we can make things easier for the local countries to maintain peace.

Does China benefit from the US presence in the region, and China meanwhile gets benefit from this peace or security and develops its strategic economic projects?

No, I don't think China benefits from the U.S. military, because NATO is in Europe, China doesn't benefit from that, and there must be some military base in the Middle East, China is not benefiting from that either, because China benefits from economic cooperation with those countries. The U.S. may be over-securitization or militarization; China does only economic cooperation. So, there's a huge difference between the approach the U.S. did and also what China does.

If China wants to lead globally and China never implements any security and military operations or involvement in the region, how can China do that?

No, China can, because China wants to avoid that if this country gets stronger, then you're militarizing or you're going to have a war somewhere else. That path, the colonial past or imperial past, is no longer practiced by China. China believes in sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peaceful cooperation, and it must be mutually agreeable. So, it's market forces. If we work together, it must be on market conditions and accepted by both parties. So, China never imposed any strong will on China and used military force to do that. So, you don't see that happening in China. So, all those agreements and cooperation are really willing on both parties' part and at the request sometimes of those countries.

Is China really ready to risk for peace or just worried about its economic projects?

No, it's a global, a big force for peace now. That's why you see all those Western leaders come to China. And then you see all those Arab leaders and even Iran's leaders come to China. If China is not really a big force, why do they bother to come? Even President Trump comes here personally. So, the influence of China is growing day by day and year by year. That is really for sure. But that influence is largely coming out of China's economic power, not necessarily military power. But military power, China has it, enough to deter any moves on China. So, China is protected with its own defense capability. But then, economically, China is much stronger, much more capable, and can do more cooperation in the global arena.

In one sentence, what is China's endgame in the Middle East?

No, I don't think China has any special endgame. China treats every part of the region the same. China wants to coexist peacefully with all the countries in the world, and we are living in a global village. 190 countries are now on 193 boats. We are actually in a big ocean. We are 193 cabinets. We are all on the same boat. So, we have to really take care of each other and then carry each other. So, that's the philosophy China has. So, we, as in the Chinese saying, right? You are living in the same boat. You have to really support each other. So, I would think that's probably the way China sees the world. We are, you know, all under heaven, one family. So, that doesn't single out any regions differently or especially. They treat everybody the same.

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