Interview
Sigmar Hartmut Gabriel, Germany’s former minister for Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2018 and the country’s Vice-Chancellor from 2013 to 2018. Photo: Rudaw
Europe will not be able to fill the security void the US is going to leave in the Middle East with an inevitable military withdrawal, says a German politician.
Sigmar Hartmut Gabriel, Germany’s former minister for Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2018 and the country’s Vice-Chancellor from 2013 to 2018, believes who wins the US Presidential elections does not ultimately matter for the future of US military involvement in the Middle East. Regardless of whether President Donald Trump wins reelection or candidate Joe Biden steps into his shoes, there is mounting pressure from the US public, who want an end to wars in the Middle East, says the politician.
He worries this withdrawal will leave a security gap in the region, one which Germans and other Europeans states are not keen to step into.
Concerning Iraq, the former top leader says the country’s fate is in the hands of Iraqis, rather than any US presidential candidate.
Rudaw: The US elections results will have economic and political impacts on the entire world. How do you conceive of the US foreign policy and Europe's role when it comes to the Middle East?
Sigmar Gabriel: It does not matter who is going to get elected, Trump or Biden. Whoever is elected, the US will gradually in the next few years withdraw from the Middle East. It is not going to swiftly happen, as many suggest, because any major withdrawal will create rifts. There is growing demand within the US for an end to war. They want their sons back home. Bernie Sanders was the first person who made this call, not Trump. Thus, there is a growing voice calling for a pullout and an end to this long-standing conflict. As you may know, this campaign started during Obama, not that of Trump. In my opinion, it will not swiftly happen. Let us not forget that Germany found it very strange when he [Trump] announced that he would pull out 10,000 troops from Germany. It was undoubtedly a message against Merkel and it was a flagrant one. Germany said [the US] is shooting itself in the knee with this decision, because the US needs these soldiers in the Middle East. Their presence is important so long as they want to remain strong in the Middle East. However, the US intends to draw down its troops, therefore they do not need their bases in Germany any longer, as much as they needed them in the past, such as the Ramstein Air Force Base. What we see is that the US wants to withdraw. The main reason which pushed Obama to strike the [2015] nuclear deal with Iran was that he knew that any possible withdrawal will leave behind major vacuums. He wanted to fill this void by gaining trust and making such an agreement. Biden wants to restore this policy. At this time, there are many problems in the world. Some people envision that [Mike] Pompeo could become a US president and a second Trump after Biden, why not? Therefore, currently there is less trust in the US foreign policy. And Joe Biden knows this quite well. We, as Europeans within this equation, have nothing to say, nor do we have any role. This is because, in some military operations that we were involved in, such as the Afghanistan war, in Europe it is called a failure. The politicians do not say it explicitly, but they understand it was a never-ending and fruitless war. Therefore, Germany tries to avoid military operations as much as possible. Hence, Europe cannot fill voids the US leaves in the Middle East, any time soon. I hope the US withdrawal will be a long-term process and is not going to happen that early. However, it will happen anyway.
What dynamics will occur in the Middle East, if Trump is reelected president, especially concerning Iran?
Iran is the major foe of the Americans. Not just the Americans, sometimes surprises happen between them and Trump. You may know that a meeting would have to take place between maybe Trump and Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations assembly, or the latter with the people around Trump. But such attempts failed because of remarks from a high religious authority of Iran who said we are waiting for the US elections results. I do not think a meeting between US and Iranian authorities is unlikely to happen. It will not happen publicly, however, but secretly and through third parties. Trump clearly says he is not for military confrontations.
Mr. Gabriel, you are aware of issues in Iraq. In your viewpoint, which candidate will work to restore stability to Iraq?
I hope any possible political solutions to the stalemates inside Iraq are not related to who is going to become the president of the US. What was really interesting to me in Iraq was that, before the killing of [Qassem] Soleimani, there were demonstrations taking place, big protests demanding Iraq avoid [being] turned into a battlefield between Iran and the US, and other parties. I hope the voice demanding for an independent Iraq far from foreign meddling is still raised and heard. They have to try their utmost to hinder proxy wars from taking place on the land of Iraq. Unfortunately, after the killing of Soleimani, this voice was quelled. This does not mean that Soleimani was a good person, but that he [both] was an enemy and friend of America at the same time. I hope that the party [that is] going to ascend to power in Iraq paves the way for the Iraqis to determine their fate themselves.
Interview by Alla Shally
Translation by Zhelwan Z. Wali
Sigmar Hartmut Gabriel, Germany’s former minister for Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2018 and the country’s Vice-Chancellor from 2013 to 2018, believes who wins the US Presidential elections does not ultimately matter for the future of US military involvement in the Middle East. Regardless of whether President Donald Trump wins reelection or candidate Joe Biden steps into his shoes, there is mounting pressure from the US public, who want an end to wars in the Middle East, says the politician.
He worries this withdrawal will leave a security gap in the region, one which Germans and other Europeans states are not keen to step into.
Concerning Iraq, the former top leader says the country’s fate is in the hands of Iraqis, rather than any US presidential candidate.
Rudaw: The US elections results will have economic and political impacts on the entire world. How do you conceive of the US foreign policy and Europe's role when it comes to the Middle East?
Sigmar Gabriel: It does not matter who is going to get elected, Trump or Biden. Whoever is elected, the US will gradually in the next few years withdraw from the Middle East. It is not going to swiftly happen, as many suggest, because any major withdrawal will create rifts. There is growing demand within the US for an end to war. They want their sons back home. Bernie Sanders was the first person who made this call, not Trump. Thus, there is a growing voice calling for a pullout and an end to this long-standing conflict. As you may know, this campaign started during Obama, not that of Trump. In my opinion, it will not swiftly happen. Let us not forget that Germany found it very strange when he [Trump] announced that he would pull out 10,000 troops from Germany. It was undoubtedly a message against Merkel and it was a flagrant one. Germany said [the US] is shooting itself in the knee with this decision, because the US needs these soldiers in the Middle East. Their presence is important so long as they want to remain strong in the Middle East. However, the US intends to draw down its troops, therefore they do not need their bases in Germany any longer, as much as they needed them in the past, such as the Ramstein Air Force Base. What we see is that the US wants to withdraw. The main reason which pushed Obama to strike the [2015] nuclear deal with Iran was that he knew that any possible withdrawal will leave behind major vacuums. He wanted to fill this void by gaining trust and making such an agreement. Biden wants to restore this policy. At this time, there are many problems in the world. Some people envision that [Mike] Pompeo could become a US president and a second Trump after Biden, why not? Therefore, currently there is less trust in the US foreign policy. And Joe Biden knows this quite well. We, as Europeans within this equation, have nothing to say, nor do we have any role. This is because, in some military operations that we were involved in, such as the Afghanistan war, in Europe it is called a failure. The politicians do not say it explicitly, but they understand it was a never-ending and fruitless war. Therefore, Germany tries to avoid military operations as much as possible. Hence, Europe cannot fill voids the US leaves in the Middle East, any time soon. I hope the US withdrawal will be a long-term process and is not going to happen that early. However, it will happen anyway.
What dynamics will occur in the Middle East, if Trump is reelected president, especially concerning Iran?
Iran is the major foe of the Americans. Not just the Americans, sometimes surprises happen between them and Trump. You may know that a meeting would have to take place between maybe Trump and Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations assembly, or the latter with the people around Trump. But such attempts failed because of remarks from a high religious authority of Iran who said we are waiting for the US elections results. I do not think a meeting between US and Iranian authorities is unlikely to happen. It will not happen publicly, however, but secretly and through third parties. Trump clearly says he is not for military confrontations.
Mr. Gabriel, you are aware of issues in Iraq. In your viewpoint, which candidate will work to restore stability to Iraq?
I hope any possible political solutions to the stalemates inside Iraq are not related to who is going to become the president of the US. What was really interesting to me in Iraq was that, before the killing of [Qassem] Soleimani, there were demonstrations taking place, big protests demanding Iraq avoid [being] turned into a battlefield between Iran and the US, and other parties. I hope the voice demanding for an independent Iraq far from foreign meddling is still raised and heard. They have to try their utmost to hinder proxy wars from taking place on the land of Iraq. Unfortunately, after the killing of Soleimani, this voice was quelled. This does not mean that Soleimani was a good person, but that he [both] was an enemy and friend of America at the same time. I hope that the party [that is] going to ascend to power in Iraq paves the way for the Iraqis to determine their fate themselves.
Interview by Alla Shally
Translation by Zhelwan Z. Wali
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